Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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037
FXUS63 KGLD 291716
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY.  THIS LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST INTO MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT DEFINITE
POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. POPS START DECREASING TO CHANCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.  A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  POPS REMAIN
RATHER LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE
TROUGH IN THE WEST BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
FORECAST IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCUR.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
BASED ON THAT THE SNOW LINE STAYS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH RAIN AND
SNOW PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS
POINT THINK THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. WINDS ARE BREEZY DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE WET SNOW SHOULD NOT BLOW MUCH IF ANY. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS WELL BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 40S EAST.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.  MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
CUT OFF OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE
OCCASIONAL BREAKS ON RADAR IN THE PRECIPITATION...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN BREEZY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024



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