Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 261801
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1201 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016
17Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated two short wave
troughs approaching the area...one system approaching from the
Texas panhandle while the second was currently moving to the east
over northwest Colorado. The latter trough will likely be the
primary trigger for precipitation chances this afternoon and
Thunderstorm chances will be the primary concern as expected
forcing has been slower than expected...resulting in a significant
delay in precipitation onset across the CWA. Last few scans of
visible satellite show an increase in cumulus ahead of short wave
trough and its sfc reflection...and imagine this more widespread
convective initiation will develop over next 2 hours. How far
east things get remain in question...and have a few doubts if
storms will make a great eastward push...or build south along
instability gradient and into stronger low level waa. Do not
really have a favored solution at this point but will trend PoPs
this evening to more of a compromise unless data leading to a more
preferred solution presents itself. Otherwise as storms end
across the area may see a brief period of clearing...but with
favorable humidity profiles expect fog and stratus to develop
during the overnight hours.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Thunderstorm chances continue into the start of the extended period
before dry conditions return to the High Plains midweek.
Temperatures look to slowly climb through at least Thursday.
Early next week, mid level ridging begins to establish itself over
the High Plains. Some monsoonal moisture should be available on the
western periphery of the ridge as disturbances pass through the
flow, with a boundary stalled south of the area. Kept slight/low
chance PoPs Monday through Tuesday night for mainly the southern and
eastern portions of the CWA.
An upper trough pushes onto the west coast on Tuesday as a second
trough digs south over the eastern CONUS from Canada. The ridge
sharpens between these features through the end of the period, with
the west coast trough slowly advancing east while the east coast
trough creeps south. The region will remain under the ridge and dry
weather looks to persist Wednesday through Thursday.
Temperatures start out in the mid to upper 80s on Monday, gradually
rising into the low 90s in time for Thursday. Low temperatures
remain in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Complicated aviation forecast expected for next 24 hours as area
of thunderstorms will impact area this afternoon and
evening...followed by potential IFR conditions in fog and stratus
overnight. Precipitation has been slow to develop...but expect
storms to form before 20z across eastern Colorado and slowly
expand to the east southeast ahead of next disturbance. Storms
should clear area by 03z...but as clouds clear out behind todays
system expect fog and stratus to develop across much of the area.
A period of IFR conditions looks possible at both MCK and GLD.