Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE TRI STATE REGION SITTING
UNDER A DRIER AIRMASS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH FROM THIS
MORNING EXITING TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL COLORADO ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SUNSET. WILL HAVE MENTION IN
FORECAST. ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE CWA UP FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS WELL GOING LGT/VAR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE AND AMT OF QPF RECEIVED OVER THE CWA WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
EXPECTED. EASTERN ZONES HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST DURING THIS
TIME...BUT STILL WILL AFFECT FOG FORMATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN FORECAST...CARRYING AREAS OF FOG
EAST...PATCHY FOG WEST TO JUST OVER THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
NORTHERLY FLOW TAPERING TO LGT/VAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID
40S.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...CWA WILL SEE A FEW MORNING HOURS OF FOG
DISSIPATING BY 15Z AS LGT/VAR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A SSW
GRADIENT WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY MID
MORNING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CARRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. 850/500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO BUILD INTO AREA ON SSW FLOW.
WITH 925 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20C-23C RANGE...CWA WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS...AND VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S PUTS PARTS OF OUR CWA
CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS.

GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED SLOWER FOR CHANGE IN PATTERN SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY. GFS REMAINS MUST MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THIS
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE...LEADING TO
MUCH LESS CAA AND LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AS TRACK KEEPS MOISTURE
LIMITED AND BETTER LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA. GEFS ALSO SHOWS MORE OF
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH
THIS WAVE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER/SLOWER MODEL AND
CLOSES AN UPPER LOW OFF NEAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH STRONGER CAA
AND BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE
ALONG WITH THE ADVERTISED COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
EITHER SOLUTION SHOULD FAVOR A COOLING TREND REFLECTED IN MODEL
CONSENSUS/BLEND. ECMWF WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POSSIBLE HARD
FREEZE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OTHER MODELS NEVER REALLY DROP
LOWS FARTHER THAN 30-35 RANGE. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN GRIDS AS A HEADS UP...BUT ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH NOT TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 09Z-10Z THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY SCT100-150. AFT 09Z-10Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH
VSBY 2-4SM THROUGH 13Z...THEN VFR WITH SCT200. WINDS NORTH
10-20KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING SW 5-10KTS
BY 13Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN



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