Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 300225
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO
TROUGH MEANDERING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. SW FLOW IN IMMEDIATE
AREA OF THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE OVER PAST HOUR(GLD
NOW 61F WAS 54F LAST HOUR). THIS SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL OF WNW FLOW. SIMILAR OCCURENCE MAY OCCUR
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR AN HOUR
OR SO UNTIL TROUGH COMPLETELY CLEARS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING
FOR MAINLY SKC...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM 02Z-15Z. LGT/VAR WINDS
WILL BECM NW 5-10KTS BY 02Z THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 15-25KTS BY
13Z-15Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...THEN DROP DOWN TO NEAR 10KTS
BY 23Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



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