Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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947
FXUS63 KGLD 170911
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
211 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Less cold temperatures expected tonight with readings ranging from
around zero across the east to near 10 across the west. For
Wednesday 850mb temperatures warm about 21F to 28F across the
area. The coolest temperatures will be across the east with highs
in the upper 30s to around 40 while across the west readings near
50 are expected. May see a few high clouds from time to time
otherwise it will be clear.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

For the Extended period...the main wx concern for the region will be
the H5/H7 trough that shifts eastward into the Plains region by late
in the day Saturday/Saturday evening. This trough will become a
closed off system overnight Saturday into Sunday before exiting by
Sunday afternoon/evening from west to east.

Going into next week...dry wx returns as H5 ridging builds over the
west coast then eastwards into the central Rockies. A shortwave does
work southward along the eastern side of the Rockies. Current model
track has this triggering a few light areas of precipitation...and
based on track only potentially affecting mainly areas south of
Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27.

For the upcoming weekend system...some model consensus on track w/
low passing over Kansas by Saturday evening. This track is closer
than the previous system...and will allow for more WAA to work into
the area as the system passes. The introduction of the warmer air
due to the closer passage of the low is going to give the area
rain/snow mix for the event. Best chances for light snowfall accum
will occur at night. Daytime highs ahead of the system on Saturday
will reach into the mid 40s north...to the upper 50s south. Sunday
will have mid and upper 30s. Low level moisture support does look to
stay east of the region as the surface low associated with the upper
system gets too far east before trough/low move into the area.

850 trough looks strong enough to aid in enhancement of precip...but
QPF will be light. with rain mixing into the p-type mix thru the
daytime hrs Sunday...low snow totals expected...even after wrap-
around occurs Sunday night. Based on latest guidance...will be
looking any snow to total 0.5 inches or less south of Interstate 70
to around 1-2 inches along and north of the Interstate. Highest
totals in northern tier zones. Some localized amounts nearing 3
inches are possible along the KS/NE border into Yuma county in NE
CO.

Strong northerly surface flow does work into the region late
Saturday on into Sunday night. 15 to 30 mph gusts are possible that
could make blowing snow/reduced visibility a possibility. But most
likely late Sunday onward as cold air over the region to remove any
chance for rain...and then all snow thereafter.

Wind chill readings will drop into the single numbers above zero
based on current readings for the Sunday night/Monday morning
timeframe.

Overall for temps...Saturday to end up the warmest day ahead of
precip with highs in the mid 40s to the upper 50s...giving way to
mid to upper 30s Sunday as CAA works thru the region. Mainly 40s
return for the beginning of next week. Overnight lows will range
from the upper teens into the mid 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1007 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at both the McCook and Goodland terminals.
Winds will remain between 5-10 knots and then shift to the west by
the end of the TAF period.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EV



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