Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251705
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE SENT TO FINE TUNE AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF RAIN
SHOWERS. AT PRESENT TIME RAIN SHOWERS WERE CONFINED TO YUMA COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO DUNDY COUNTY. 12Z NAM/RUC/HRRR BRING THIS AREA OF
PRECIP STEADILY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED QPF/TEMPS/DEWPOINT AND WINDS. WITH THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING...THE AREA IS SEEING MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES...MOVES EAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING UNTIL
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED RETURNS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT DO EXPECT CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION...SO WILL HAVE 20-30 POP RANGE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR QPF. THE MAIN THING
THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GRADIENT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES REGION.
MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO HINT FOR 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE AND INTRO OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND SHORTWAVE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
GUIDANCE...GIVING THE REGION HIGHS TODAY IN THE 50S...WARMEST EAST
AND SOUTH. TONIGHT...SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN GIVING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS TO THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

FOR THE NEXT 48-HOUR PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
AFFECTS OF A BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE FOCUS OF WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE
LATEST MODELS RUNS DO HAVE THIS RIDGE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS BEFORE ITS WEEKEND ARRIVAL. WITH THIS SHIFT...THE
EXPECTED SECOND SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE SHIFTED A BIT MORE
EASTWARD...CUTTING BACK ON POTENTIAL LIGHT -RW FOR THE CWA. STILL
LOOKING FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ONLY EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE THIS CHANCE. THE ENTIRE
CWA HOWEVER WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM BRINGING IN 25 TO 35 MPH POTENTIAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT COMES IN DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. COOLER AIR REMAINS OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY...BUT LESS CLOUD COVER SO HIGHS WILL RANGE IN
THE U50S TO NEAR 60F...AND EVEN WARMER FRIDAY WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS
BRINGING IN HIGHS NEAR 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40F...WARMEST FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST RUN...OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUGGESTS A FORECAST DEVOID OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WAS THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION ONCE AGAIN. INITIALLY ON SATURDAY...A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE UNITED STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...FORCING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN PULLED ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT SHOULD ALSO SCOUR OUT GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING IT CONFINED WITHIN A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OF THE GULF COAST. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...LACK OF LARGE SCALE GULF FLOW AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FORCING DO NOT INSPIRE ONE TO PLACE CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE
FORECAST. OVERALL...LOWERED OR ELIMINATED MOST POPS SUGGESTED BY THE
CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INDICATION OF ANY COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM CANADA. AS WITH WHAT AS
OCCURRED RECENTLY...ANY COLD AIR SLIDES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHILE WARM AIR SPREADS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. THERE MAY BE A FEW DAYS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO BE MINDFUL OF BUT LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST
WINDS ARE NOT CONJOINED TO PRODUCE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER THREAT WORTH
HIGHLIGHTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 21Z OR 22Z EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR
RAIN SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO MVFR RANGE.
OTHERWISE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER FOR CIGS TO FALL INTO MVFR AND A
SMALL CHANCE FOR IFR. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST GUSTING AROUND 25KTS. AFTER 22Z PRECIPITATION
MOVES SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. WINDS FALL
BELOW 12KTS BY 01Z THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST/WEST/AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH 14Z WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. AROUND 17Z WINDS START TO
VEER TO THE WEST AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS EXPECTED.

KMCK...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTH TO 25KTS.
FROM 20Z-00Z NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 25KTS WITH VFR
CIGS AND RAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. AROUND 01Z NORTH WINDS AROUND
10KTS WITH A FEW CIRRUS PREVAIL...BY 08Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THEN ESTABLISH A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 6KTS BY 14Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99



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