Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN



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