Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281635
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS OVER PAST FEW HOURS. MAINLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH REGION LYING IN
AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT. TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 70S UP
TO THE MID 80S WITH A RANGE OF RH VALUES AS DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE
40S WEST...50S CENTRAL...WITH A FEW 60S IN EASTERN ZONES. GRADIENT
WINDS STILL ONGOING FOR THE AREA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...AND SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS MORE INTO PLAINS REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THE AFTERNOON
AS GRADIENT RELAXES. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE TO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SINCE IT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO REACH THIS
FAR NORTH UNTIL PERHAPS ON THURSDAY WHEN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
RETURN TO THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RETROGRADING
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE BOTH MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PERSISTENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER HUDSON BAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SETUP LOOKS TO BRING
RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SEEM TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FILTER WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LEFT
LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.

WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024



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