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000
FXUS63 KGLD 150714
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
114 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect Monday for much of the Tri-State
  area.

- Low confidence in a threat for severe weather very late Monday
  afternoon into the evening generally along east of a Red
  Willow to Norton and Graham county line.

- Medium to high confidence in northwest winds gusting 40 to 65
  mph, possibly higher during the day Tuesday. Low confidence in
  blowing dust. Light beneficial rainfall is likely, mainly
  along and north of Interstate 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Increased overnight low temperatures for most of the area as
winds are forecast to become breezy which should help continue
to keep the air mixed despite the nocturnal inversion setting
in.

No changes were made at this time to the Fire Weather Watch as
there continues to be discrepancies on dry line location; am
thinking though that GFS/HRRR/RAP may be over mixing and
pushing the dry line to far east. Also do have some concerns of
stratus lingering around eastern portions of the area causing
lower temperatures and relative higher RH values.

The continued challenge of this forecast continues to be
regarding the severe weather potential. RAP/HRRR/GFS all
continue to shove the dry line significantly off to the east
almost into Central Kansas. I have some concerns that this may
be overdone to an extent as some green up in fields was noted
when in Decatur/Norton counties which may be a signal of soil
moisture at least remaining in the ground, so this at least does
lead me to think that the NAM, normally more moist guidance may
be the way to go with dry line positioning. If this is the case
the key question for the afternoon and early evening is what
will initiate any storms as no obvious synoptic features are
being highlighted in guidance; one of these may be a
differential heating boundary if the stratus mentioned above
does linger around a bit longer.

Into the evening; virtually all guidance does have a "surge" of
moisture moving up into west Central Kansas. The question again
is will this affect any of our CWA. Again using the NAM as
guidance for this scenario does show a favorable environment
for significant hail with MUCAPE of 2500+ j/kg present,
favorable wind shear and fairly impressive streamwise vorticity
along with fairly strong 0-3 and 0-1 SRH; so do think that
there may be window for tornado potential with any surface based
storms. The interesting part of this is the shape of the
hodographs with a strong veer back veer looks to be present. If
this feature was to verify, then perhaps a long track tornado
wouldn`t be in the cards as it may be "choked" off. The other
factor to remain aware of is if any storms do end up impacting
the area they will be moving extremely quick around 35-45 knots
to the northeast if following RM motion. Overall, though the
event, does look to be a fairly mesoanalysis event that will
require close monitor to changing conditions, especially as we
go through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tonight...east to southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected.
Gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range will be possible for a few hours
either side of midnight. A generally clear sky is expected. However,
high clouds may approach the far southern zones toward sunrise. If
the NAM model is correct, we could have some stratus move into the
eastern and northeastern zones toward sunrise. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 30s/lower 40s across the western and
southwestern parts of the area to the lower 40s across the eastern
half of the area.

Monday-Monday night...at 500mb, a closed low pressure area is
forecast to reach Colorado`s Continental from the southwest by
the end of the day, continuing east and over the Tri-State area
during the night.

Presently, Currently, southeast to southwest winds gusting 35 to 45
mph are anticipated during the day. Locally developed blowing
dust/dust storm parameters of 0.5-1km wind speeds of at least 43kts
and steep 0-2km lapse rates are being met using the usually reliable
GFS model, favoring  a narrow corridor from Trenton and McCook to
Colby, Oakley and Leoti a few hours either side of 00z. The GEM
model, which also does well, remains just a bit lower on the needed
wind speeds but its axis of these winds is in line with the GFS.
Overnight, gusty southeast to southwest winds continue in the
evening before gradually veering to the southwest and west at
speeds of 10 to 20 mph with a few gusts in the 25 to 30 mph
range winds gradually switch to the northwest for most of the
area behind the developing surface low.

Regarding precipitation chances, there is a large dry slot being
advertised in the 850-500mb layer from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models
which doesnt support much if any showers/thunderstorms during the
day. If the NAM model verifies, the stratus over the east/northeast
in the morning continues through the day and would act as a
focus for shower/thunderstorm development. If the GFS verifies,
the entire area is dry slotted from the surface through 300mb.
So, things could go one of two ways. Presently, am confining any
thunderstorm development to locations generally east of Highway
25 around 00z which is in line with the latest SPC day 2
outlook. If thunderstorms can develop, they`ll be severe with
all modes of severe weather possible. Overnight, cant rule out a
few thunderstorms across Red Willow, Norton, Graham counties in
the evening. For the rest of the night, there will be 20%-30%
chances for precipitation across the far eastern and far western
zones with the rest of the area in a dry slot.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with low temperatures in the upper 30s to near 50.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...as the storm system lifts northeast toward
Omaha by the end of the day, strong northwest winds move in on the
backside of the low. Gusts in the 40 to 65 mph range are anticipated
with the strongest gusts west of Highway 25. If this trend
continues, High Wind Watch or Warning will be needed. Winds will
slowly decrease from southwest to northeast overnight as the
storm continues moving away from the area.

Wraparound showers and thunderstorm chances will be highest (60%-
80%) along and north of Interstate 70 with lower chances (30%-50%)
south during the day. Overnight, chances quickly decrease with 20%-
30% chances from Benkelman to Hill City north.

Solely based on our blowing dust/dust storm research findings,
there is a threat across far eastern Colorado in the morning,
along and immediately ahead of the wraparound precipitation.
During the afternoon, the threat continues east and southeast
into western Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska. However,
given the expected rainfall, this would likely muddy up the
forecast for blowing dust. Its possible that dust would race
ahead of precipitation shield and should that happen, produce a
rather elongated northeast to southwest corridor of dust with
local brownout conditions possible. For now, the mention of
blowing dust is confined to locations south of a line from Yuma
to Oakley where rainfall chances are lowest and threat for
blowing dust relatively highest.

High temperatures are anticipated to be in the lower 60s to middle
70s with low temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...the 500mb flow features near zonal flow
over the area with a low pressure system near the Canada/North
Dakota border. Shower and thunderstorm chances (20%-60%) increase
during the night as moisture increases from northwest to southeast.
High temperatures warm back into the 70s with low temperatures in
the lower 30s to around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show upper level ridging over the
cwa for Wednesday. For Wednesday night into the first half of next
weekend, the focus shifts to a cutoff upper low over the northern
Plains. This system slowly shifts eastward through the latter
portion of the week into Saturday, before weak ridging aloft for
Sunday, followed by another shortwave next Monday coming off the
central Rockies. For the latter portion of this week though, with
the upper low fairly stagnant, zonal flow sets up and is broken by a
couple weak shortwaves. The first one around Wednesday night into
Thursday does now have differences in track with the GFS being a bit
further north with overall QPF. ECMWF has been consistent with the
latest NBM, so have followed suit.

At the surface, high pressure north of the cwa, combined with low
pressure moving off the central Rockies will provide an easterly
upslope component to enhance low level moisture in tandem with the
first shortwave. Initially there will be enough instability to allow
for an isolated thunderstorm with shower activity, but going into
Thursday as colder air works into the region, NW zones will begin to
see a sw/rw mix. As temps warm through the day, the sw/rw mix
remains focused over NW zones, with little to no accum.

The wrap-around flow for the surface low will bring the chance for
gusts up to the 30-40 mph range, tapering down by 18z Thursday.

The second shortwave will be a bit weaker for the tail-end of the
week, focused on the easterly upslope that forms at the surface.
ECMWF still remains more aggressive in the areal coverage of precip.
GFS surface ridge is centered more over the northern Plains. Overall
a bit more colder for precip arrival and do expect a bit more in
terms of snow showers coverage, especially west of Highway 25.
Potential for a half inch of accum to occur west of Hwy 25/along and
north of Hwy 36.

System clear the region late Saturday into Sunday providing a nice
warmup as southerly flow returns to the area. GFS/ECMWF do differ in
timing/placement of the shortwave for next Monday, but temps warm
enough with persistent southerly flow, so rain is p-type expected.
Some instability present so can`t rule out an isolated storm.

For temps, highs on Wednesday will range in the 70s to around 80F.
Warmest locales will be south of the Interstate. Thursday on through
Saturday, a mix of mid 40s west to mid 50s east will give way to
mainly mid and upper 40s by Saturday. A few locales will be around
the 50F mark. For Sunday, warming trend resumes with upper 50s to
lower 60s expected. Going into next Monday, warmer with lower to mid
70s.

Overnight lows Wednesday night will range widely with 30s west
transitioning to lower 40s south and east. Lower to mid 30s for
Thursday night will give way to a range from the upper 20s to lower
30s for both Friday and Saturday nights. Warming up for Sunday and
next Monday nights with 30s and 40s respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Main focus for this TAF period remains on the increasing wind
potential and associated LLWS through 14-15Z. Confidence has
actually decreased some on the low stratus potential for KMCK so
opted to go few020. Winds will quickly increase in strength as
the nocturnal inversion erodes with increasing potential for
blowing dust especially for KGLD; where the tempo remains. LLWS
then looks to return as a dynamic low begins to occlude across
the region. For KMCK, will need to watch mesoanalysis trends as
a conditional threat for storms remains possible between 00Z-06Z
Tuesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 10
    PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>003-013>015-
     027>029-041-042.
     Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for KSZ004-016.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 10
    PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079-080.
     Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99/Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Trigg