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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD
WITH HOW HOT DOES IT GET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY/COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED
CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FL0W ALOFT
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
IS DRAPED UP AGAINST THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL AND HAS SENT UP
MESOSCALE/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES ACROSS DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL. THE NAM/ECMWF LOOKED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE WORST ON THE MID LEVELS WITH THE
UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS/SREF DOING ABOUT THE SAME. NAM WAS A LITTLE WARM
AT 700 MB WITH THE GFS AND UKMET BETTER. SREF AND GFS WERE DOING
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WENT
THROUGH...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE DO ABOUND. SATELLITE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO OUR WEST
PLUS A WARMER AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS/EML MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. NEAR 12Z THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. IT STAYS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH AS SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

VERY UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES BEING A BIG INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ONE OF
THOSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION. ALL
MODELS ESPECIALLY THE RAP REDEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AREA
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS...
MATCHES UP WITH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS RIGHT NOW AND THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...
WILL RAISE POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

THAT CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO RELOAD WITH EMPHASIS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER THE FAR WEST
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER. THE FAR WESTERN MAY BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THESE STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN THIRD.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE WET GROUND AND ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THIS DAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE LOWEST
AND CAP BREAKABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER A WEAK COOL FRONT OR
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL
THESE FEATURES PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT LOOKS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND WILL BE AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF EVEN WITH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DEEP DRY LAYER AND HIGH BASES. BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH HERE TO
INCLUDE A LOW SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER...COULD SEE THINGS TOTALLY
CAPPED OR BE ABLE TO BREAK LOOSE.

ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE 90S. SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IT WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE BOUNDARY.
CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS LIKE THE BOUNDARY BEING
FURTHER NORTH.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAK LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR/OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THE DAY BEFORE
EXCEPT MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS DO LOOK CAPPED DESPITE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE NEAR THE SAME PLACE. THE EASTERN
THIRD HAS THE LOWER 700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AND BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS COMING ACROSS. LIKED WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
HAD IN THERE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MODEL DATA SAYS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND SO
WILL THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDED THE MAXES IN THAT DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2013

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT 500 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY AS MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FLOW AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.  STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE VORTICITY VALUES...HOWEVER SOME
POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL ENTER THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS FLOW PATTERN RETURNS TO ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY.  THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY...AND JET STREAM WILL STAY WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB JET
SPEEDS ARE VERY STRONG DUE TO NOCTURNAL EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE
SOME UNSTABLE WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORCING. ONCE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THE JET SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
CALM FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARM...WITH VALUES IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THETA E VALUES ARE MARGINAL AT 850 AND AT
THE SURFACE...WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A 30 DEGREE DRY LINE
GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
MARGINAL AT BEST.  THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
TO THE EAST TOWARDS MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING WARM AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARM FRONT INCREASES TEMPERATURES.  MORE
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES THAT MAY REACH
NEAR 100.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT BOTH SITES AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH BREEZE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS...KEEPING UP THROUGH THE EVENING AS A
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WHICH
MAY PROMPT A LLWS GROUP TO BE ADDED TO THE TAF. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW SO DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JJM