Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1129 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Issued at 925 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Update to forecast to adjust temps from latest obs. Overall
forecast is in good shape with region a psunny/msunny mix.
Inverted surface trough over the southern Rockies. Showers ahead
of this feature currently moving eastward along and south of
southern CWA border. As this system works eastward into the
southern Plains region this expect increased
activity along and ahead of trough.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

The upper low continues to lift into the Great Lakes region today
with surface high pressure sliding out of the forecast area and
into the southern high plains as a weak surface trough moves
across the region overnight. A weak short wave trough embedded in
the westerly flow aloft will move east across the region this
evening, which will aid in the development of thunderstorms across
the forecast area following the destabilization of the airmass
this afternoon as highs reach into the lower 70s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible again Monday afternoon and
evening as a weak low center caught up in the flow around the low
over the Great Lakes region begins to orbit the main low as a
short wave trough that sweeps through the central high plains
region during the evening and overnight hours. With the assistance
of the stronger short wave aloft, there is a marginal risk of a
few storms becoming severe with hail and damaging wind gusts.

Tuesday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Monday as stronger cold
air advection with unidirectional northerly flow through the
column pulls a cooler area of high pressure at the surface southward
from the northern plains into the central and southern high
plains regions. A few showers may be observed across the forecast
area on Tuesday as another weaker short wave trough circulates
around the main upper low center and moves over the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 209 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Dry weather starts off the extended period on Wednesday, with a
large upper trough sliding east of the region and an upper ridge
moving in overhead. The ridge progresses passed the area on

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast each afternoon and
evening Thursday through Saturday. On Thursday, a disturbance moves
through westerly flow aloft, generating a slight chance of
precipitation. There looks to be a better chance on Friday and
Saturday when a cold front approaches the High Plains and multiple
disturbances rotate around the southern periphery of a slow moving
upper closed low in Canada.

Temperatures warm from the low/mid 70s on Wednesday to the upper
70s/low 80s for Thursday and Friday. A cold front drops highs to the
70s on Saturday. Low temperatures range from the mid 40s to upper
50s during the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period. VCTS from 21z
this afternoon thru 04z Monday. Winds...NW 5-10kts thru 21z then
light/variable. By 04z Monday...WSW around 10kts thru 14z
Monday...then NW.

For KMCK...VFR conditions thru the forecast period. Winds
meandering from WNW to WSW around 10kts.




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