Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170534
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

ACROSS THE CWA WITH LATEST UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
MAINLY INTO 20S WITH AREA STILL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM A COMBINATION OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TRAVERSING FROM
THE WEST...AND A SLOW BUILD OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH. STILL
LOOKING FOR THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO TREND BEING A MORE NON-FACTOR AS
LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SOME
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR FOG TO DEVELOP SOON IN EASTERN COLORADO ZONES.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH CWA UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

ISSUED AT AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
RANGED FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND WAS HEADING SLOWLY EAST. ACCORDING TO WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS...A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
BRING THE REGION A NEW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
TONIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE NAM HAS BEEN
THE BEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE FOR WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING (STRATUS
AND MOISTURE FIELD). RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR TONIGHT.
DO BELIEVE THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA STRETCHING
INTO THE PANHANDLE...SLIDES BACK SOUTH AND ENVELOPS MOST OF THE
REGION. ON THE OUTER EDGES...THE NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE PERSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS. HAVE INPUT FOG FOR
THIS RUN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH MELTING SNOW
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

TOMORROW...DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING PRECIPITATION. STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR DISSIPATION ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE.
INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS BETWEEN 850 MB AND 500 MB IS QUITE DRY BUT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN...THAT AIRMASS BEGINS TO SATURATE AND WILL
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY. MOST PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM CST/5 PM MST. IF ANY PRECIP FALLS
ON WEDNESDAY...IT IS GUARANTEED TO BE LIGHT WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS FOR WEATHER TYPES...FEEL THAT THERE IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS DRIZZLE SOUTH OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE. ALL PRECIP NORTH OF THIS LINE
SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE/PHASE OF PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/AMPLIFYING FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. ALONG THE WEST COAST IS A MEAN TROUGH
WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH IT WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE TO OUR NORTH.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE STARTED OUT WELL. AT MID
LEVELS...MODELS WERE CLOSE WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
THE MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH THE COLD AIR TO OUR
NORTH. OVERALL THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN
AND GFS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER
IS NEAR THE BAJA. LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL SATURATED AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENT MOISTURE PROFILES WITH SOME HAVING
DRY AIR ALOFT/SATURATED LOW LEVELS...SOME WITH A SATURATED AIR
MASS ALOFT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AND OTHERS HAVE IT COMPLETELY
SATURATED. SO PHASE LOOKS TO BE A PROBLEM. DESPITE WHAT SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE...THE FORCING IS WEAK/UNORGANIZED
WITH NOT THE MOST IDEAL THETA-E LAPSE RATES. SO AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE WITH A MIXED PHASE OF SNOW AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW IS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA IN
THE MORNING WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING QUICKLY TO AN END BY
LATE IN THE MORNING. MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE DETAILS
OF INCOMING/RATHER COMPLICATED LOOKING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS DIFFER
ON HOW COOL IT WILL BE. THE GFS 2M/MAV ARE THE ARE THE WARMEST
WITH NAM 2M/MET THE COOLEST WITH OTHER OUTPUT TENDING TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE. THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT
STICKS AROUND DURING THE DAY WITHOUT STRONG SURFACE WINDS/MIXING
TO TAKE PLACE. SO AM TENDING TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

DURING THE NIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRIER THAN THE AIR MASS ALOFT. THIS
SETUP LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH TO INSERT FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST. A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER REMAIN SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE
TOO COLD. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUDS ARE LESS...TEMPERATURES COULD BE
MUCH COLDER DUE TO THE LIGHT WIND FIELD.

FRIDAY...PROBLEMS WITH INCOMING TROUGH CONTINUE. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER PLENTIFUL. HOWEVER...THE DRY LAYER IS MUCH
LARGE SO JUST EXPECT CLOUDS RATHER THAN ANY FLURRIES. THE MAIN
THING FROM THIS WILL BE THAT IT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING UP TOO MUCH. SO AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME FOR THE POPS.

A STRONG UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SYSTEM STARTS DIGGING
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE INIT GAVE ME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD MAINLY FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE COVERED BY PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHER
CHANCES NEEDED. AM CONTENT FOR NOW TO KEEP WHAT IS IN THERE SINCE
IT IS SIX TO SEVEN DAYS OUT.

ALSO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE INIT SINCE AT THIS
TIME THEY DO LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE PATTERN
ALOFT...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE
COOLED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOME VFR HIGH CLOUDS OVER KGLD FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...OTHERWISE
IFR AND BELOW THRU 15Z WEDNESDAY AS LOW CLOUDS PUSH SOUTHWARD.
KGLD WILL BEGIN TO SEE CHANGEOVER BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. KMCK ALREADY
OVC007..AND WILL BE VARIABLE DOWN TO OVC003 AT TIMES. 3SM IN FOG
FOR BOTH SITES AFTER 08Z-09Z. AFTER 15Z WED...MIX OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS TROUGH LIFTS THRU REGION. SOME PRECIP MAY FALL AFT
22Z FOR KGLD/00Z THURS FOR KMCK. WINDS FOR KMCK ESE 5-10KTS BECM
ENE 5-10KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT. FOR KGLD...ESE 5-10KTS...SHIFTING NNE
BY 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN


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