Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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778
FXUS63 KGLD 230840
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 AM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

A strong upper low is in place over Nevada/Utah border, with SW
flow ahead of this feature across the Central Rockies and High
Plains. A plume of mid level moisture is streaming north within
this flow, and a few weak shortwaves are propagating across
eastern Colorado. At the surface a quasi-stationary front is in
the process of lifting northward as a warm front in response to
the deepening of surface low pressure on the lee side the Rockies.

Today-Tonight: Forcing will increase this afternoon as upper low
transitions eastward and upper level jet streak moves over western
KS. Current trend is for surface trough/dry line to be further west
initially, placing early convective activity mainly in eastern
Colorado before transitioning eastward (and increasing in coverage)
through the evening/overnight period. Bulk effective shear is
going to be impressive (55-65kt), however there are still
question on instability. RAP/NAM show MU CAPE generally in the
1000-1500 J/KG range with much less SB/ML CAPE. Considering the
degree of shear we could see a few stronger cells develop with
isolated severe hail threat. DCAPE on GFS/NAM both show max values
approaching 2000 J/KG and combined with a dry adiabatic mixed
layer in place through this evening raises concerns for better
potential of damaging winds with thunderstorms, particularly as
thunderstorm activity merges into cluster/linear segments
(indicated by ARW/NMM).

Saturday-Sunday Night: A cold front will eventually move across
our CWA shifting main instability axis well southeast of our
area. Subsidence and significantly drier air transition over our
CWA. This should lead to activity quickly ending from the west to
the east through early Saturday morning, with dry conditions
prevailing through the rest of the weekend.

Regarding temperatures: Another day of above normal temperatures in
the upper 80s/lower 90s is expected today with strong WAA
associated with unidirectional southerly flow ahead of upper
low. Post frontal air mass Saturday should support temperatures
close to seasonal normals (70s to near 80F). A second surge of CAA
will occur late Saturday night into Sunday and highs may struggle
to reach the 70s. With BL Tds below freezing and ideal radiational
conditions, there is a potential for temperatures late Sunday
night/Monday morning to drop in the low to mid 30s (particularly in
our west). This would support frost conditions in our west, and a
frost advisory may eventually need to be considered if trends
hold.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

The long term period will be primarily dry with chances for
precipitation on Thursday. On Monday, the trough that impacted the
CWA over the weekend will be east of the region. Behind it will be
a ridge that will move in over the area. While the ridge moves
in, models agree that a closed low will form over the southwestern
states. Towards the end of the period that low pressure will move
up and merge in with the upper level flow. This is what will
potentially lead to precipitation chances Thursday. Current model
runs show the GFS to be a little slower and the EC a little
faster. So timing is still questionable at this time.

High temperatures are expected to slowly increase from the 60s on
Monday to the mid 80s to low 90s on Thursday. Early Monday and
Tuesday mornings will continued to be monitored for a potential
Frost Advisory. Patchy frost has been added to Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Tricky short term forecast for KMCK. Low clouds and fog are being
observed in the counties to the north of the airport. Given a
persistent easterly surface wind both could briefly impact flight
categories overnight. However, overall trend suggested by the
models is for the low clouds/fog to lift northward by sunrise and
not have a lasting impact.

Otherwise, VFR expected at both KMCK and KGLD. Southerly surface
winds will increase to wind by late Friday morning as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of a cold front moving into eastern
Colorado. Expecting a line of showers and thunderstorms to
accompany the front into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska
Friday night.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Windy conditions with gusts 40-45 mph will develop this
afternoon, with increasing gradient at the surface and aloft.
Trend has been for lower RH to remain just west, so critical fire
weather conditions are not expected in our CWA. Considering
drier fuels in the west we could see near critical conditions this
afternoon due to winds. Lower RH values are expected Saturday
afternoon, however winds will be much lighter. No fire weather
watch or RFW is planned at this time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR



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