Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 112137
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
237 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Through Tonight: Vigorous mixing (SFC-750 mb) associated with
unseasonably warm temperatures (mid 50s to lower 60s) and an
enhanced MSLP/height gradient associated with shortwave energy
digging SSE through central NE/eastern KS (along the western
periphery of a separate shortwave progressing ESE through IL/IN)
is resulting in sustained NW winds of 25-35 mph with frequent
gusts to 45-55 mph (strongest in western KS/southwest NE) this
afternoon, along with critical fire weather conditions. Expect
winds to decrease to 15-25 knots AOA sunset with loss of
insolation /onset of the nocturnal inversion/ and gradual
weakening of the MSLP gradient, further weakening to 10-15 knots
or less overnight as surface high pressure builds into the Tri-
State region from the NW. Expect lows ranging from the upper teens
to low/mid 20s, coldest in valleys (w/respect to surrounding terrain)
/low- lying areas/.

Tuesday: Surface high pressure building into the region overnight
will shift into TX during the day Tue as the shortwave
progressing through KS/OK this evening digs rapidly SE into the
GOMEX and subsidence in the wake thereof shifts from the southern
plains to the gulf coast region. Expect light/variable winds
becoming WSW/SW at 10-15 knots by late afternoon with highs
ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s, warmest eastern CO.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Wednesday through Monday the dry pattern and above normal
temperatures, with a few windy days, will continue.  A couple upper
level short wave troughs move over the forecast area in the
northwest flow, but the environment is too dry to support much more
than cloud cover. The strongest upper level short wave trough for
this period moves through Saturday night/Sunday. However by the time
the dew point depressions are low enough to start supporting
precipitation, the lift will be to the east.

The main focus for this period is the winds.  Wednesday and Thursday
will be the windiest days; Thursday having the strongest winds with
speeds similar to today.  Along with the winds, there will be a
potential for hazardous fire weather conditions Wednesday as
relative humidity values fall to around 20 percent.  Thursday the
relative humidity values will be higher, around 30 percent, but the
strong winds will still create a volatile environment with regard
to fire weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. NW/NNW winds will
generally be sustained at 25-30 knots with gusts to 40 knots this
afternoon, though 35G45 knots will be possible at times in the
18-22Z time-frame during peak heating/mixing. Expect winds to
decrease to 15-20 knots AOA sunset with loss of insolation /onset
of the nocturnal inversion/ and a weakening MSLP gradient. Winds
should further weaken to ~10 knots or less overnight as the
nocturnal inversion strengthens and MSLP gradient further weakens.

&&

.FIRE WX...
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

11-12 pm MST observational data dictated that the Red Flag
Warning be expanded to include the entire Tri-State region shortly
after noon MST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WX...VINCENT



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