Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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065
FXUS63 KGLD 181938
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 500 MB LOW
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. AS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE ROCKIES TONIGHT...A
FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY...AND WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT ALSO LOOKS VERY HEALTHY. UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT TUESDAY WILL BE A
WET AND COOL DAY.

OBVIOUSLY...WILL GO WITH VERY HIGH POPS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL SPREAD EAST DURING
TUESDAY MORNING.  GENERAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY RANGE FROM 1/3
INCH ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES TO OVER ONE INCH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE SYSTEM.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALL POINT TO CONVECTION SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DYNAMIC WITH
500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LOW CENTER AROUND -20 DEGREES CELSIUS.
LIGHTNING NETWORK IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND TO ITS NORTH. GIVEN THAT...WILL
KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER...
UPSLOPE FLOW...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALL BE IN PLAY. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH ONLY INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THURSDAY. THERE IS A 700 MB SHORTWAVE
INITIATING AT 12Z SATURDAY AROUND THE 4 CORNER STATES MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND 18Z. THE ECMWF SHOWS CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 200
J/KG ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT 1000 J/KG SUNDAY. THE GFS CAPE VALUES
ARE HIGHER AT 1400 J/KG FRIDAY...1800 J/KG SATURDAY AND 1000 J/KG
SUNDAY. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 60 KTS IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHEAR WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF SHOWS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING WHILE THE GFS IS
MOVING FASTER BY A FEW HOURS. YET THE GFS HANDLES THE MOISTURE BETTER.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A BETTER HANDLE ON POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY DOES HAVE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW RAIN
CHANCES PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KMCK WILL END BY 20Z...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT KMCK AND KGLD THROUGH 06Z. MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE
OVER THE SITES WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AND RAIN BEGINNING. BY
12Z...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT KGLD WITH LOWERING
CONDITIONS AT KMCK. BY 15Z BOTH SITES WILL BE IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...TIPTON
AVIATION...MENTZER



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