National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGLD 211708
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1108 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TODAY...AND WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. EVEN WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THE AIR MASS WILL BE
DRY AND INCREASINGLY STABLE ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE AIDED BY DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 850/700 MB TO PRODUCE WINDS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...20 TO 35 KNOTS.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
CONTINUED DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEVELOPS
SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE...HOWEVER...
AND EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...AND MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN...WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE IMPLIED LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FRIDAY. IN
RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TRAJECTORIES
FAVOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR BY THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST WEST WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD PLACING
ITS AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND
GEM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE POSITION OF BOTH FEATURES KEEPING
OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EMBEDDED DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...FS