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000
FXUS63 KGLD 172349
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND MAY CLIP YUMA COUNTY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORM THIS EVENING MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. ASSUMING WE GET A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING
SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MODELS FORECAST A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
MID AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING QUICKLY NNE. COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WILL LIKELY BE
INITIATING MECHANISM...WITH BIGGEST QUESTION BEING WHERE IT
EXACTLY SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE UPDRAFTS DEVELOP...STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UP TO 40KTS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT WARM AS THE DRYLINE RECEDES TO THE WEST...BRINGING AIR WITH
A HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT BACK...AND CLOUDS PERSIST.

THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION...TAKING THE
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 FARTHER EAST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME A CONCERN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS
BUT THERE COULD BE A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BENEFICIAL
RAINS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A WARMING TREND TAKES OVER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

BEGINNING OF A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING AND
SHOULD BECOME IFR TO LIFR BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. SOME DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL OUTPUT AS TO WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. TYPICALLY IN THIS
SCENARIO MODELS IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CONDITIONS MAY NOT BECOME VFR AT KMCK UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. BELIEVE THAT
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AND ONLY PUT IN A
MENTION OF VCTS AT KGLD TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER