Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 192351
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ONGOING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FA. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  THE NAM LOWERS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BELOW 60 PERCENT RH AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. DUE TO THIS
DRYING TREND DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST.

THE SNOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND DEEPEN AS IT
DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
UPPER FLOW FROM THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW TO A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF FAST-MOVING
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND A STRONG UPPER /250 MB/ JET
WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S GIVEN FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C. COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER IN MON-TUE WHEN THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE L-M 40S.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...LOCATION
AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHER NORTH AND SHALLOWER WITH MORE OF A
POSITIVE TILT WHILE THE EC SOLUTION IS MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO EXPECT A
CHANCE OF PRECIP AND COLDER TEMPS THU-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 451 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC-SCT200.
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SAT 3-5SM IN FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WNW TO WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN



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