Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251931 CCA
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
131 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...sunny skies are
prevailing for just about all of the area as high pressure giving
the region a nice day to dry out from yesterday`s precipitation.
Some lingering cloud cover remains over far eastern zones...east of
Hill City. Where the cloud cover has been persistent...temps have
been affected to the tune of a 10 degree difference.
Currently...area temps are mainly ranging from the upper 40s thru
the 50s...with a light NNW wind. A few locales have hit the 60F
mark.

Going into tonight...a shift from the current wind regime to a more
ESE one will occur out ahead of approaching shortwave currently
moving into the west central Rockies. The shift to a more ESE
surface flow is expected to bring an increase in low level moisture
to the area from east to west. Model guidance does show this
increase in BL moisture...which will mean increasing clouds along
with the chance for fog. Based on latest model guidance have
expanded the areal coverage of fog after midnight tonight into
Sunday morning. Any fog will begin to erode east as cloud cover
increases from the west with shortwave approach. For overnight
lows...do expect the western portion of the CWA to be slightly
colder than the east due to lack of radiational cooling east from
increasing clouds. Entire area will be mcloudy/cloudy by 12z
Sunday...capping low temps.

For Sunday...based on the model track of approaching
shortwave...cloud cover expected to be most persistent south and
west as system track south of the CWA. Based on the cloud coverage
setup...expecting overalls highs to be slightly warmer than locales
south/west. Looking for a range in daytime highs from the mid 50s to
the lower 60s. For precipitation...models do differ on potential QPF
with this system...w/ bulk occurring south and east of the CWA as it
taps into deeper moisture away from the area. Nonetheless...have
continued the mention of light showers for the area...mixing with -
sw west in the early/mid morning hrs with no accum. Some instability
for the afternoon for the area...so have also continued mention of
isolated thunder.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Several storm systems will traverse the Tri-State region Tuesday
through Saturday. Showers will continue moving into the region on
Tuesday along an axis of instability stretching from central
Texas northwestward through eastern Wyoming. This axis is
associated with an area of low pressure that will be diving
southeastward, out of the Great Basin and into New Mexico and
Texas as we head into Wednesday. Widespread showers are expected
from Tuesday afternoon, into the overnight and extending all the
way through the day on Wednesday as this system moves south of the
region. There will be minimal CAA with the system until late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, leading to only a brief
period of snow or rain/snow mix through Thursday morning. This
system exits from southwest to northeast through the day on
Thursday. Although winds will become gusty on Tuesday/Wednesday,
high wind risk is relatively low at this time Tuesday through
Thursday.

Another low pressure system will travel well west the area as we
head into Friday afternoon. This system will move out of the Great
Basin late Friday afternoon, traveling southeastward into Arizona
and into Mexico on Saturday. An axis of instability will extend into
the region on Friday; however, confidence in this solution is
relatively low at this time and precipitation areas may change in
future updates due to track variation. Rain and perhaps a rain/snow
mix will be possible Friday evening and overnight into Saturday.

High temperatures during the extended period will be near to
slightly above average with low temperatures expected to be above
normal. Normal highs are in the lower to middle 50s with normal lows
in the lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions expected thru 09z Sunday with SKC
becoming FEW-SCT200-250. From 09z-12z MVFR with 3sm in fog and
ceilings dropping down to BKN020. Aft 12z Sunday...a return to VFR
conditions with ceilings ranging BKN045-060. Winds NNE around
5-10kts thru 02z Sunday. By 02z...a switch to ESE at 5-15kts.

For KMCK...VFR conditions expected thru 07z Sunday with FEW-
SCT250. By 07z...a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions with visibility in
fog ranging from 3-4sm down to 1 1/2sm at times. Ceilings ranging
from BKN005-015. By 15z Sunday...MVFR with ceilings near BKN015.
Winds N around 10kts thru 01z Sunday...then ESE 5-10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN



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