Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240809
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Latest upper air data shows the ridge over the Central Rockies.
Water vapor imagery shows a very dry environment between the I-80
and I-70 corridors from the Rockies east into Central Nebraska and
Central Kansas.  At the surface a high pressure was moving east out
of the Tri-State Area.

Tonight will be similar to last night, although lows will not be
quite as cool due to some warm air advection occurring with the
south winds.

Monday will continue to be dry as the ridge builds over the Central
Plains and an upper level short wave trough tracks over the Northern
Plains. Highs will be warmer than today by a few degrees. Winds will
be breezy in the afternoon as breezy 850mb winds mix to the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

In the extended period the models are showing the upper level ridge
amplifying over the western U.S. This will produce an strong
northwesterly flow over the region. Towards the end of the period
the models differ significantly. With the ECNWF and NAVGEN maintain
the northwesterly flow while the GFS shows a sharper ridge axis
creating a north-northeasterly upper level flow over the region.

Regardless of how the upper level flow turns out towards the end of
the period, look for shortwave troughs to move within the flow
pattern and produce chance of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon.

Temperatures look to be slightly below normal for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, winds
will be south to south southwest at near 9 knots through the
morning. Around 18z, those winds will increase to near 17 knots
with gusts to near 25 knots. This lasts until near sunset when the
gusts stop and sustained speeds stay at near 12 knots through the
rest of the period.

For Kmck, southeast winds near 6 knots will shift to the south at
9 knots during the mid morning. Early in the afternoon the south
winds will increase to near 14 knots with gusts to near 22 knots.
Near sunset those winds will decrease to near 10 knots with no
more gusts expected.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER


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