Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 031724
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY ISOLATED RW/TRW THAT HAD
BEEN MOVING SOUTH THRU THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. ANY
REMAINING PRECIP HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. MODERATELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. AT MID
LEVELS...THE CANADIAN FOLLOWED BY THE GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND PRESSURE FIELD FOLLOWED BY
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS AREA NEAR 12Z. ALSO LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT THE VERY
LEAST IT WILL BE SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MORNING. WILL WATCH THE TRENDS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWING SOMETHING A LITTLE UNUSUAL WHICH MODELS MAY NOT BE LATCHING
ONTO. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR WITH THIS AND IN FACT
WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. FOR YESTERDAY
THE GUIDANCE RAN A LITTLE COOL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE
BIASES AND THE AMOUNT OF RISE AT 850 MB OVER YESTERDAY...RAISED THE
MAXES SOME OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...HEIGHTS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD
WARMEST DESPITE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN PER THE REASONING
GIVEN ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES ONCE AGAIN. INTERESTING AND TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE MINS. WIND FIELD GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FOR THAT REASON
TRENDED MINS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...DUE TO THOSE LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ITS HOLD ON THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS...DESPITE THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE. CONTINUED THE
WARMING TREND OF THE MAXES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT I
STILL MAY BE A LITTLE COOL.

FOR THE NIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR
AND EXPECT VERY MILD MINS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM IS INDICATING
SOME STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG. HOWEVER...AM NOT BUYING IT YET AND
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IMPACTS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...RETURN MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST AND MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND HEADS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DRYLINE SITS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE OPTIMAL...BUT WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE. HOWEVER...MUCH IS STILL IN
QUESTION. GUIDANCE DIFFERS NOT ONLY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVES...BUT THE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND BOUNDARIES AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AS WELL...FROM THE 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR BOTH KGLD/KMCK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SKC BY 00Z-01Z WED. FROM 18Z-
21Z...BKN025 POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-01Z THEN
WNW AROUND 10KTS. BY 13Z-14Z WED...BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JN



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