Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 242110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON IS TRIGGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...AND ACROSS KS-NE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AT
SUNSET. MOST AREAS BENEATH THESE SHOWERS WILL RECEIVE ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS...WITH BEST CHANCES AT 0.01" ACROSS OUR THREE COLORADO
COUNTIES. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AT SUNSET AS WELL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA IS NOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW COAST AND WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS-NEBRASKA TOMORROW. A STRONG UPPER JET /250 MB/
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS GIVES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE DEPTH OF MIXING AND HOW MUCH WIND CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

GFS IS QUITE BULLISH ON PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE
EC/NAM. HARD TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FORECAST 165
KT 250 MB JET...HOWEVER THE GFS LOCATION IS BENEATH THE RIGHT
FRONT JET QUAD. CURRENT PRECIP FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

850 MB TEMPS WARM UP 3-4 DEGREES C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH
TODAY...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY RAISED FCST
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THIS AFTERNOON LEANING TOWARD MAV
GUIDANCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TODAY...AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND FL080. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGLD TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...DLF


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