Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR






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