Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 022011
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  TO THE WEST A
RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA.  AT
THE SURFACE A FRONT WAS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS ISOLATED STORMS FIRING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT OVER NEBRASKA.
CLOSER TO HOME A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAD EXITED THE TRI-STATE AREA
BEHIND A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE EXTENDING NORTH TO THE
TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AM DOUBTFUL ANY STORMS
WILL FIRE BETWEEN THE TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40 WHERE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST.

THIS EVENING THE LIFT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.  SOME WEAKER
MORE WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP DUE TO CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 25MB OR MORE. WHAT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE WEAK LIFT COMES TO AN END.

OVERNIGHT A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE
VERY LOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT
THAT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE RAINFALL
POSITIONED TOO FAR WEST BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT/LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. HAVE THE RAINFALL
CHANCES CENTERED WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT IS BUT ALSO HAVE
THE CHANCES EXTENDING FURTHER WEST INCASE MODELS ARE MORE CORRECT
THAN THEY CURRENTLY APPEAR.

FRIDAY MORNING THE STORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THEN DECLINE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENDS. THIS SETUP LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING ONLY FURTHER WEST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER AN INCH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM
COMPLEX.

DURING THE AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SMALLER SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

STORMS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY BECOME SEVERE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27 WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45KTS AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1500J/KG WILL EXIST. NOTICED THE 0-3KM HELICITY IS AROUND 200M2/S2
EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST. IF STORMS CAN TAP INTO THIS
THEY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE BEFORE MID MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CANADA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ONTO THE
PLAINS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ON MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE DRIER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S. THE AREA WILL THEN SEE AROUND A 15 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS FOR KGLD
WILL BE ALL OVER THE COMPASS THROUGH THE TAF SO KEPT THE DIRECTION
VARIABLE. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE A STORM COMPLEX DURING THE MORNING
FRIDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STORM
COMPLEX...WHICH MAY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO NOT IMPACT KGLD.  VISIBILITIES
MAY DECLINE IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS WITH THE STORM COMPLEX.
WINDS COULD INCREASE AS WELL. FOR KMCK NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL


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