Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

A RATHER WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD OVER THE TRI STATE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA. IN GENERAL LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE NIGHT TIME.

LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATES TWIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS.  SOUTH OF THE TROUGHS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WAS PUSHING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ONTO THE PLAINS.  OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS ELEVATED STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
FLOW AROUND THE TWIN TROUGHS.

TODAY THE STORMS WHICH IMPACTED THE AREA LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF A 500MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA.  THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA SO EXPECT THE STORM COVERAGE TO BE HIGHEST
THERE...WITH STORMS FILLING IN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40.  DUE TO MEAN STORM MOTION
BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AM EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT
DEEPENS.  DURING THE EVENING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A PLUME OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES WITH IT.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30+KTS INCREASES OVER THE AREA.  THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY THE STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS LIFT FROM THE TROUGH
WEAKENS.  THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF RAINFALL OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA ACCOMPANYING A MUCH SMALLER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ENDING UP NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE TO
BE ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FOCUSED AND THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST.  THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN
MONDAY...AROUND 25KTS...SO A SEVERE STORM IS LESS LIKELY BUT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.  STORMS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  DUE TO MEAN STORM MOTION BEING PERPENDICUAL
TO THE FRONT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE AS LIKELY...BUT
STORMS WILL STILL BE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY AT AROUND 25 MPH.

TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES.  WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING TIED TO THE FRONT...EXPECT STORMS COVERAGE TO BE PRIMARILY
ALONG THE SURFACE FEATURE.  OVERNIGHT THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE A MORE PROLONGED DURATION OF RAINFALL AS THE NORTHWARD
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA.  STORM
MOTION WILL BE ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIFT BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.  MEANWHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL CHANCES THERE AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING TO THE
SOUTH WHERE THE LIFT/INSTABILITY IS WEAKER.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH SOME OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA UP
TO 30KTS SO A SEVER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH.  STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA.  WITH MEAN STORM MOTION
CONTINUING TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT.

ON A SIDE NOTE NOTICED THE MOS QPF GUIDANCE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 25 CORRIDOR MAY RECEIVE 2-3 INCHES OR MORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THIS IS A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...DOES BARE WATCHING.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WHEN TO BRING THE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AN END AS A
RESULT.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO ON THURSDAY GETS CUT
OFF FROM THE UPPER FLOW AND ENDS UP MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY MD DAY FRIDAY.  MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SURPRISINGLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED BY THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS
REPLACED BY HIGHER PRESSURE...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY AND
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE AREA OF STORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST...GRADUALLY
EXITING THE AREA. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE DONE
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SO HAVE A VCTS MENTION FOR AN HOUR AS A
RESULT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE EVENING ANOTHER WAVE OF STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND MERGE WITH THE ONGOING STORMS ALREADY OVER THE AREA. WITH
WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED DURING THE NIGHT WENT AHEAD
AND PLACED A PREVAILING TS FOR BOTH SITES. BASED ON STORM BEHAVIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE THERE TO BE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AS STRONGER STORMS MOVE OVER THE SITE BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL


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