Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS STILL ANTICIPATED AT KMCK THIS MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS
DECK BUT FELT STRATUS MOST LIKELY STALLS BETWEEN KMCK AND KGLD.
THEREFORE...VFR FORECAST ISSUED FOR KGLD. STRATUS BURNS OFF BY
LATE MORNING. STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO...
ADVANCING EAST THROUGH EVENING. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE
VCSH/VCTS MENTION INTO FORECAST DUE TO ISOLATED STORM NATURE.
NORTH WINDS BECOME SOUTH BY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



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