Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 140550
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Tonight: Mid/upper level moisture assoc/w shortwave energy
digging SSE through through Idaho at 20Z will overspread the CO
Front Range and High Plains this evening/tonight as the wave digs
SSE through western portions of the 4-corners region. Further
upstream, shortwave energy digging SSE through Alberta/Saskatchewan
this afternoon will rapidly progress SE into eastern MT and the
Dakotas overnight. Some degree of link-age will occur between the
aforementioned waves overnight, resulting in a positively tilted
trough that extends from the Desert SW northeast into the Central/
Northern Plains by 12Z Thu.

Dry adiabatic thermal profiles above H5 (~20 KFT) will saturate
between 00-06Z this evening, presumably in association with some
degree of H5-H25 DPVA /layer lifting/ and increasing upper level
moisture. Thus, overcast cirrostratus should develop by 06Z
tonight. Despite cold advection beneath H5, further saturation is
progged in the H7-H5 layer by 12Z Thu, and guidance is indicating
a potential for very light precipitation (snow) by sunrise,
primarily in eastern CO. Due to the idiopathic nature of H7-H5
forcing and the initial presence of a very dry sub-cloud layer,
confidence is low w/regard to whether or not light snow will be
observed. At this time will indicate a 20-30% chance of light
snow between 09-12Z, generally along/west of the CO border, with
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday: Overcast skies should abate between 15-18Z, though
low/mid-level cold advection will persist into the afternoon,
perhaps resulting in the development of glaciated diurnal Cu
based at 5-6 KFT agl. Isold sprinkles and/or flurries cannot be
ruled out, though no measurable precip is expected. Expect highs
in the 40s with gusty NW winds sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts
up to 45-50 mph, windiest in eastern CO and extreme western KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 116 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Friday through Wednesday the main focus will be the diminishing
chances for precipitation Saturday night.

Saturday night an upper level short wave trough will move through
the center of the country following a cold front.  Chances for
precipitation continue to fall as we approach Saturday night.  There
is some lift over the forecast area as the trough moves through.
However dew point depressions are growing, and the trough is
elongating more toward the Desert Southwest.  Even though the
precipitation chances are spread out over more of the forecast area,
have very little confidence of any measurable precipitation
occurring Saturday night due to the weather pattern resembling split
flow. Both the GFS and ECMWF are shifting the majority of the
precipitation to the Southern CONUS.  This seems very reasonable
given the resemblance to split flow which directs precipitation
either north or south of the forecast area.

Saturday there is a potential for the cold front to come through
during the day instead of the night, as has been shown the last
couple of days.  If the cold front comes through during the day,
north winds will be gusty behind the front, with gusts around 35
MPH.

After this trough passage the upper level ridge will build back over
the Great Basin and onto High Plains, bringing dry and warmer
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1008 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

MCK and GLD will start out VFR at 06Z with a lowering of the
ceilings expected through the night. MCK is expected to remain VFR
while GLD could see some non-prevailing MVFR conditions between
14-16Z due to lower ceilings. After 16Z, expect northwest winds to
also increase dramatically with gusts in the 30-35kt range through
the afternoon. By 01Z, expect ceilings to be diminishing with the
sky condition becoming scattered along with the winds becoming
light through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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