Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
174 FXUS63 KGLD 061720 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1120 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from ~11 AM to 3/4 PM MDT. Large hail and gusty winds will be the main concerns, although an isolated tornado and localized blowing dust can not be entirely ruled out. - Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along/south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 83 today and Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT today for those along and south of a Kit Carson County to Sherman County to Logan County line. - Blowing dust may occur between sunrise and ~4 PM MDT today for those along and south of a Yuma to Goodland to Oakley line with winds gusting up to 50 mph out of the southwest to west. Visibility reductions and poor air quality are expected where blowing dust occurs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1116 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Pacific front continues to move across the region this morning. There remain a few strong to severe thunderstorms currently moving through Norton and Graham counties. There is a concern that thunderstorm winds may kick up a little blowing dust in the vicinity of the thunderstorms. A Tornado Watch remains in effect through 7PM CDT for Norton and Graham counties. Also issued a Blowing Dust Advisory through 2PM MDT for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in eastern Colorado and Sherman and Wallace counties in Kansas. Blowing dust will be possible with some possible reductions to visibility. These visibility reductions will be limited to areas close to the dust source region. Environmental conditions and local research are indicating that the potential for lower visibility will decrease the further away from the dust source region you get today. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 A challenging forecast today with fire weather, strong winds, severe thunderstorms, and possibly blowing dust all impacting the Tri-State area. This morning we have cloud cover across majority of the area that will clear from west to east by the late afternoon behind the storms. The big question of the day is where the dryline will be when storms begin to develop. CAMs have been a little uncertain the last few days. The 06Z NAMnest, which has done a fairly good job handling the dryline the last few events, has discrete thunderstorms developing around 11 AM MDT along a Trenton to Edson to Tribune line then growing upscale into a line between 1 PM MDT and 3 PM MDT this afternoon along and east of US-283. The 08Z HRRR has some drizzle to light rain developing as early as 13Z near the previously mentioned area. These later grow upscale into a line of thunderstorms around 15-16Z east of US-83. Since the HRRR has struggled with initiation along the dryline lately, I have trended the forecast mainly towards the NAMnest. With any discrete storms that develop and the ample moisture ahead of the dryline, very large hail up to baseballs and tornadoes will be possible. Once the storms merge into a line, damaging winds, large hail up to golf ball sized, and a few QLCS tornadoes become the hazards. The areas most likely to see any QLCS- related hazards is along and east of US-83 during the mid-day to early afternoon timeframe. Storm motions will be quick today as they move to the northeast. The threat for severe weather is expected to taper off for the Tri-State area around 3-4 PM MDT. Unfortunately once the severe weather leaves the area we are not out of the woods with the other hazards for the day. The breezy conditions experienced overnight will continue through sunset this evening with gusts up to 50 mph possible out of the southwest to west. The strongest winds are expected to be along and south of a Yuma to Goodland to Oakley line; however, locales to the north are forecast to have gusts up to 40 mph. As the dryline moves east, RH values are expected to rapidly decrease behind it. With the breezy conditions, blowing dust is a concern for those mentioned above with the strongest gusts. We are not anticipating a wall of dust to occur; however, a plume is possible. The best time for dust to occur is from sunrise to 4 PM MDT. Thunderstorms will also be capable of producing localized blowing dust. Minimum RH values are forecast to be in the teens to around 20% this afternoon across the area. Burning is not advised across the entire area due to the ability for fires to rapidly spread; however, the counties most of concern are along and south of a Kit Carson to Sherman to Logan line from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s today. After sunset the weather is expected to calm down with westerly winds decreasing to ~10-15 mph and overnight temperatures falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Dry conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday afternoon as the large upper low moves over the Dakotas and Montana. With a tight pressure gradient sitting over the area, westerly to northwest winds are expected to increase mid-morning to the evening hours with gusts up to 50 mph. Temperatures are also expected to warm up tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. RH values are expected to drop into the teens across most of the area tomorrow beginning around mid-day through sunset. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT for the same counties as today, except for Kit Carson and Sherman counties. During the evening there is a low chance (~25% and less) for locales along and east of US-283 to see some light rain. Little to no accumulation is expected. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower 30s to mid 40s tomorrow night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Long range guidance suggests that a broad upper level low over the north-central CONUS (mid-week) will fracture/divide into two distinct features (late this week), the eastern of which will progress eastward across the Great Lakes/New England and the western of which will retrograde WSW to the 4-Corners/ Intermountain West.. beneath an amplifying upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast. Model solutions diverge considerably thereafter, over the weekend. When synoptic pattern complexity increases.. forecast confidence decreases. With the above in mind, steering the forecast toward climatology appears to be the most prudent course of action. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024 KGLD...Sub VFR cigs are expected from TAF issuance through 13Z-14Z with winds from the south gusting to around 40 kts. From 14Z-01Z, southwesterly winds gusting to 40 kts in the morning slowly veer to the west, gusting 30-40 kts. After 02Z, west winds subside below 15 kts. Blowing dust may impact the terminal for an hour or so either side of 15Z per local blowing dust research findings. For now, have left blowing dust out of the TAF given the potential plume being just south of the terminal. If the plume does move over the terminal, research findings show ceilings in 1500-2500 ft range (sub VFR) with reduced visibilities (also sub VFR). KMCK...Sub VFR cigs are expected from TAF issuance through 15Z-16Z. Winds will be from the south to southeast, gusting up to 40 kts. From 16Z-18Z, ceilings should improve as winds veer to the southwest, gusting 30-40 kts. From ~18Z-21Z there is a possibility of thunderstorms moving through the terminal or within the vicinity of the terminal, some of which could be severe. With uncertainty on timing and direct impact to the terminal, decided to add in a TEMPO group for now. From 19Z-02Z, VFR conditions continue with winds veering to the west, gusting 30-35 kts. After 03Z, west winds subside below 15 kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Blowing Dust Advisory until 2 PM MDT this afternoon for KSZ013- 027. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013-027-028-041-042. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for KSZ027-028-041-042. CO...Blowing Dust Advisory until 2 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ091- 092. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ254. NE...None. && $$s the dust moves further from the source, e UPDATE...Wekesser SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...BV AVIATION...KMK