Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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135
FXUS63 KGLD 310154
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
754 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Update to forecast to remove the next tier of counties behind
boundary from the Watch...to include Dundy in NE...south to
Greeley county.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon along
the Palmer Divide in northeast Colorado as well as a weak surface
boundary near the Colorado/Kansas border area as a shortwave
trough emerges from the central Rockies. The environment will be
moderately unstable with SBCAPE up to 3000 j/kg. Deep layer shear
is not great, at around 20-30kts, but should be sufficient for a
few organized updrafts and possibly a supercell or two. Storm
motions will be northeast at around 15kts, but right movers will
be considerably slower at 5kts or less to the south. So thinking
flash flood threat will be limited to the stronger rotating
storms, particularly near areas that received heavy rain yesterday
(Wallace, Logan and Gove counties). Feel however the threat will
be too limited to warrant a flash flood watch. Storms will be
moving east with the upper shortwave and waning in the overnight
hours with loss of daytime heating. Showers/isolated storms may
linger into early Tuesday or perhaps into the afternoon south of
Highway 40 where models keep most of the precipitation.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with northerly
flow resulting in highs around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Upper low will lift northeastward, out of North Dakota and into
southern Manitoba on Tuesday night and into Wednesday. High pressure
will build into the western states and push a previously cut off
area of low pressure eastward across Texas through the day on
Thursday and into Friday. Upper flow will transition to a west by
northwest direction as the H5 ridge becomes very amplified and
nearly stationary over the southwest on Friday and Saturday,
reaching all the way into southern Alberta. An upper low will move
into southern California late on Saturday and moderate as it is
influenced by the blocking ridge. Upper flow will gradually become
north northwest as we head into Sunday. Temperatures will warm
significantly as the ridge influences the region and superblend is
coming in gradually higher with each iteration. I would not be
surprised to see areas in the southern portions of the CWA rise to
90 degrees or higher on Friday and Saturday. The upper low will help
moderate the amplification of the ridge on Sunday and Monday,
pushing it slowly eastward at the same time. Overall, the pattern
will remain warm and dry through Sunday with PoPs increasing
slightly as we head into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Both taf sites will see mvfr/ifr conditions from 01z to 09z with
1-3sm in rain/hail/thunder...ceilings bkn015-030. Otherwise vfr
conditions before 01z...and after 09z. Winds south 10-20kts thru
01z then vrb15g30kts(DUE TO THUNDER) thru 04z-06z. By 04z...
general nw flow around 10kts will become ne with gusts near 20kts
aft 12z- 13z Tuesday. KGLD may see brief period of sw flow at
times aft 07z Tuesday.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN



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