Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BRINGS MOIST MONSOONAL AIR INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. TEMPS MAY
NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
POPS FOR SUNDAY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO COULD PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS SOMEWHAT COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOWS NEAR 60.

MONDAY...ANY CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND DUE TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR STORMS TO
WORK WITH...BUT A DRY LAYER BELOW 600MB WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO JUST
SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. HIGHS WARM UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOW 90S DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
SWING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. AT PRESENT TIME...GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WET SOLUTION. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. CANADIAN SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO SUPPORT KEEPING 50+ POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK. DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION AT EITHER SITE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...BUT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK AFTER 06Z...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MENTZER



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