Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241903
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
103 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE
WILL BE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE ROCKIES BUT
OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL IN EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT MEET THE 3-HOUR MINIMUM REQUIREMENT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH INTO
NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MID WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS PLACES
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HIGH WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE...BUT AM
NOT SOLD ON THE PRECIP CHANCES JUST YET.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIP...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT POPS GENERALLY BELOW 50 PERCENT DUE TO
CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE. PWATS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED NOTHING
TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...USUALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...SO EVEN IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE GREAT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MOISTURE LOOKS
OKAY ABOVE 700MB...BUT BELOW THIS ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY DRY WITH A NEARLY 25F DEGREE T-TD
SPREAD. WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS MONDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE
AN EVENT WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ANYWAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
VERY STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR A MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH 40 TO 50 KTS MIXING DOWN. STILL THINKING AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP
MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BUT
WITH RIDGING ALOFT NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...024




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