Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 302119
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
319 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO I AM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MID TERM
AND A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY/COMPLICATED FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

MODELS STARTED OUT WELL AT THE JET AND MID LEVELS WITH A SLIGHT
ADVANTAGE TO THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST SO ONE WOULD THINK
THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM IN GOING SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER
MORE OF THE FORCING GOES NORTH AND THE LEAST ELEVATED CINH IS ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. THAT FORCING AND WEAKNESS IN THE
INHIBITION SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SO HAVE SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH THEN INTO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. AT THE VERY LEAST IT LOOKS
LIKE STRATUS BUT AM ALSO ANTICIPATING FOG.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY BUT THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES. CONSIDERING THE MORNING STRATUS AND WINDS COMING
MORE FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...AM SIDING TOWARD COOLER.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST ANY STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. AS ON SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER OR NEAR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF TO
TWO THIRDS. AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT. SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH
COMES UP AGAIN AND HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMES IN LATE IN THE DAY SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT THAT WARMUP AGAIN WILL BE TEMPERED
BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRATUS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY THE MODELS
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CUT/CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS DOES
SEEM OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.

OF COURSE THE DETAILS DIFFER BUT WITH TIME THOSE SHOULD BE RESOLVED.
IN GENERAL LEE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO PULL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE
SAME TIME MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SOME STRONGER THAN
OTHERS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE
THROUGH. CONSIDERING THIS...THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE AND WET ONCE AGAIN. KNOW IT IS FAR OUT...BUT THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST .05 ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL OR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PATTERN DEFINITELY SUPPORTS IT.

SO A WET AND NOT VERY HOT PATTERN LOOK IN STORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

STRATUS DECK WITH HEIGHTS 1200-2500 AGL IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CLEARING OVER KGLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO BRING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGLD AND KMCK BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR



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