Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 310748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE CHALLENGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM ENOUGH
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO
CURRENT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS
INCREASE AS THEY BEGIN TO TURN FROM AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 09Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN...REMAINING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MID MORNING
BECM SSE 10-20KTS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY 00Z SAT 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.