Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 301730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.