Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020905
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COINCIDENTALLY MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO. COMPARING IT TO CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS IT BE IGNORED.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40KTS POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WINDS
AND SUPPORTED BY SREF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND PROBABILITIES. MET
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS A BIT LOWER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY. ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH WHAT THE NAM MODEL THINKS IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KIT
CARSON AND ALL OF CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. CO-OP AND COCORAHS
DATA SUGGESTS THESE VALUES ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE. WILL WORK TO IGNORE
NAM/SREF 2M TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GFS (AS HAS BEEN THE
CAST THE PAST FEW DAYS) CONTINUES TO BRING IT IN FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARENT THE BEST FOR BRINGING THIS AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
SO...WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. COULD SEE MID 40S ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW LARGE
H5/H7 RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MONDAY. THE
LATEST ECMWF THOUGH DOES SHOW SOME WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STRUCTURE OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS
REGION...AND THUS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SCENARIO DOES BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF IT
HOLDS...BUT LAST FEW FORECAST RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A DRY TREND WHICH
THE LATEST GFS SUPPORTS...SO WILL CONTINUE ALONG THESE LINES.

WITH THIS SETUP...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL LOOK FORWARD TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AS WNW FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF H5/H7 RIDGE WILL BRING
DOWN 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM +1C TO +3C ON THURS/FRI...TO NEAR +4C TO
+6C FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO WORK OFF THE FRONT RANGE...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING MOISTURE FEED...NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. COLDEST DAY OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THURSDAY AS CAA
WITH BROAD TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE 40S THURSDAY...THEN
INCREASING INTO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR NORMAL RANGING IN THE 20S MAINLY WITH SOME MID/UPPER TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. FOR KGLD...LITTLE
TO NO SNOW EXPECTED BUT WILL KEEP IT VCSH SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NAM/GFS
CONTINUING TO OVERESTIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
BE DURING THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING BUT STILL
STRONG AND GUSTY WIND SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AND GUSTY AS KGLDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 22 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 32 KNOTS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
GUSTINESS WILL STOP.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER



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