Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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012
FXUS63 KGLD 090957
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

TODAY-TONIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EAST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE
COUNTRY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF CANADA. IN ADDITION TO BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS STREAMING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL IMPACT AREAS GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO GOVE. FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST A BIT
TONIGHT ALLOWING CLOUDINESS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WINDS TO
DECREASE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 7-9F FROM MONDAYS READINGS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND EAST (MCCOOK TO
GOVE)...MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WARMEST IN
THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREA WHERE THERE IS NO SNOWPACK. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOESNT CHANGE MUCH BUT
BELOW IT 850MB TEMPERATURES SOAR PER NAM/GFS. UNDER FULL MIXING
HIGHS WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70...HOWEVER WE HAVE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SNOWPACK. BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACCOUNTING FOR PARTIAL
850MB MIXING. THUS WILL GO WITH HIGH RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN
NORTON COUNTY TO AROUND 70 IN TRIBUNE. WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
WEST TRIBUNE WOULD GET FLOW FROM AREAS WITH NO SNOWPACK AND POSSIBLY
HIT ABOUT 71-74 DEGREES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GFS/NAM TRY TO BACK
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH EXTENSIVE
STRATUS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO OAKLEY AND GOVE
DURING THE DAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH LOW TO MID 40S EAST...UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST AGAIN IN THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREAS.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BACK-DOOR FRONT PUSHING IN BY LATE-DAY FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BEGINS
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS AHEAD OF A THROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE SAME TIME. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT TIMINGS OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IT ACROSS EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
INCREASES. EXPECT TO SEE COOLER...NEAR NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE THE WESTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
ON THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE ALSO MOVES EAST WHILE
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ALSO PUSHES EAST...PUSHING THE COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST AND BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW IS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS DEEPEN
AND MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30KTS EXPECTED TODAY QUICKLY FALLING BELOW 10KTS AROUND 23Z.
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEST WINDS NEAR 12KTS
EXPECTED.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR 12KTS
WINDS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST
AROUND 7KTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
X-SECTIONS OVER THE TERMINAL SUGGEST CEILINGS AROUND 4K FT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99



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