Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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918
FXUS63 KGLD 311634
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1034 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Cooler temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday are
expected today across the Central High Plains region in the wake
of a cold front that moved through the region overnight.

The main upper trough axis in the split flow aloft over the U.S.
moves east across the Central High Plains region this evening with
ridging over the southwest U.S. to move east and affect the
forecast area from Thursday through Friday night

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain of Colorado and move east over the plains of Eastern
Colorado and Western Kansas in association with the upper trough
moving east of the Rockies. Storms are expected to stay mostly
along and south of Interstate 70 this afternoon and evening,
diminishing overnight tonight. Dryer and warmer conditions are
expected over the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper ridging moves in from the southwest and higher pressure
moves into the plains states at the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The extended period continues to be in good agreement between the
models that the ridge in the western CONUS is still impacting the
CWA. Friday and Saturday still show dry, warm conditions over the
region. For Sunday and Monday night, there are chances for some
precipitation. Current model runs show potential for rain/storms due
to a closed low, that has been sitting over central California,
being pushed and absorbed into the ridges flow those days. With this
happening, moisture from Mexico/Gulf of Mexico gets pulled up and
helps with precip chances. The GFS and European are differing with
precip chances on Sunday. The GFS doesn`t show anything whereas the
Euro does. For Monday, models are in agreement but timing is a
little different; this could be due to the exact placement of the
ridge in the west and the trough in the east. Time will tell which
one holds true. Currently, Monday night looks best for storm
potential with surface CAPEs around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear around
45 kts. Will keep an eye on the storm potential as the day draws
closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1028 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at both TAF sites this afternoon. A
few showers and thunderstorms could develop south of interstate 70
however confidence is low that any of these storms would approach
the vicinity of KGLD.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...TL



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