Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270752
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows large
scale ridging across the Intermountain West extending northwards
across the Canadian Rockies. Two closed upper low are sandwiched
on either side of this upper level ridge: one over the Great
Lakes, and another over the Baja Peninsula. Our CWA remains
predominantly under the influence of the upper level ridge. At the
surface, high pressure remains in place over our CWA.

Today-Thursday night: Upper level ridge will continue to dominate
pattern across the Central High Plains, with a very stable/dry air
mass persisting. By Thursday night the ridge begins to move just
east enough for SW flow to develop, however there will be very
little impact on sensible weather during that forecast period.
Today will be the warmest of the next 3, with highs ranging from
the low to mid 80s. A backdoor cold front is still expected to
move across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night as a
shortwave trough rounds the western extent of the closed upper
low shifting southward over the Ohio River Valley. Falling
heights and weak CAA will result in temps gradually trending back
towards seasonal normals Thursday (mid to upper 70s).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Mainly dry conditions are anticipated through the first half
of the weekend before shower and thunderstorm chances increase
Sunday. Temperatures remain steady, with highs generally in the 70s
and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Guidance has come into better agreement at the start of the
extended period with a closed low over the Ohio River Valley and
ridging over the Plains. The ridge breaks down on Friday and
Saturday as the next low pressure system pushes onto the west
coast. The upper low over the eastern CONUS lifts northward Sunday
and Monday and southwesterly flow strengthens aloft ahead of the
incoming trough, with a weak cold front advancing towards the
region.

Moisture gradually increases as a series of shortwaves work their
way through the southwesterly flow and across the High Plains.
These disturbances generate shower and thunderstorm chances
Friday night into the weekend. However, the majority of the
forecast area looks to stay dry through Sunday with the best
chance for precipitation looking to be Sunday evening into Monday
as the next system nears the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions continue for the TAFs. Winds will be light and
primarily from the west to northwest. KMCK did have the visibility
drop to 4 miles prior to TAF issuance but has now improved. No
other sites are reporting lower visibility so may be dust from
nearby field moving across the runway.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL



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