Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281917
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OR SO.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DECLINE DURING THE
EARLY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL


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