Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UPPER FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BACKS TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT BY
THE END OF THE DAY PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN LAYER OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY
HUGGING THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 5-6 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TONIGHT WITH 10 TO 15 MPH ELSEWHERE.
FOR SUNDAY WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 20S IN THE MCCOOK...NORTON AND
OBERLIN AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST FROM FLAGLER
TO CHEYENNE WELLS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
FRIDAYS RECORD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TO MID 70S. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SATURDAYS RECORD TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED SUNDAY. ONLY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE COMES IN
THE FORM OF A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS.

THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITSELF KNOWN IN FORCE SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EARLY FRONT ARRIVAL...PASSING
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON. THE GFS AND
ECWMF HAVE A SLIGHTLY FASTER PASSAGE WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE SLOWER. EITHER WAY...ONCE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES
PLACE...ONE CAN EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MODEL RH FIELDS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONE TRICKY PART WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF EITHER SOME FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND DO NOT FEEL THE NEAR-
SURFACE MOIST LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. DID
NOT MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATES
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
NEAR SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. WITH THE LIFT
SUPPLIED BY THE DISTURBANCE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW FROM BACKING
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE...FELT THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO SW NEBRASKA AND EXTREME NW
KANSAS. FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AS THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY STRONG AND THIS PATTERN DOES NOT RESEMBLE ONE IN WHICH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS MIGHT OCCUR.

FROM MONDAY ON...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED UNDER ZONAL FLOW. A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY...FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INDICATIONS POINT TO A WEAKER
COLD FRONT AND NOT ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...

GOODLAND......75 IN 2003
HILL CITY.....70 IN 2003
MCCOOK........73 IN 2003
BURLINGTON....72 IN 2003
COLBY.........75 IN 1998
TRIBUNE.......76 IN 1998
YUMA..........71 IN 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
CLIMATE...99



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