Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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228
FXUS63 KGLD 240419
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1019 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

With line of storms decaying just west of the Tri-State Area have
lowered rainfall chances for the evening. Does look like some
showers/t-storms may move in overnight accompanying the upper
level short wave trough.

UPDATE Issued at 848 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Increased chances for rainfall over East Central Colorado given
the line of showers/t-storms to the west. Am not too sure how far
east the line will last given the upper level short wave trough
accompanying it remains just west of the Tri-State Area until
after midnight. Therefore extrapolated out in time a few hours
where the line of storms should be, then have chances for
rainfall declining after that as the environment becomes more
stable.

As the short wave trough moves east into the Tri-State Area after
midnight kept chances for rainfall going over the west and
northwest given the nose of the low level jet over that part of
the area.

UPDATE Issued at 707 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Allowed heat advisory to expire. Hill City is still meeting
criteria, but all other sites in the advisory area have fallen
below criteria. Hill City should cool below criteria within this
hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue through
tonight and Sunday. Synoptic scale forcing remains rather nebulous
with only weak shortwave trough rotating around the anticyclone
centered over the Four Corners. A surface trough located from near
Norton to Leoti this afternoon may be the focus for initiation but
so far little evidence seen in visible satellite imagery and short
term models not very supportive either. Better chances may come
tonight with scattered convection coming out of Colorado. Storm
organization will be limited by weak deep layer sheer but cant
rule out an isolated hail/wind threat with stronger storms. As has
been the case lately, expect storms to persist through the night
followed by a lull Sunday morning...then gradually increasing
again Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
cooler with upslope surface winds...so will let the heat advisory
expire at 00z tonight with no plan to reissue for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Temperatures are expected to be either near normal or somewhat
above normal through the long term. Forecast focus has been on
trying to identify the periods with the greatest possibility of
thunderstorms and resulting higher QPF.

Westerly flow aloft with embedded short wave troughs remains over
the northern third of the CONUS through the middle of the week.
During the latter part of next week into next weekend the upper
pattern becomes more amplified as the high pressure center aloft
retrogrades over the desert southwest/intermountain region with a
ridge amplifying over the northern Rockies. In response, a trough
axis deepens over the Mississippi valley region. The result is a
few short wave disturbances are expected to move through the
central High Plains region, but will transition from a W to E path
to more of a NW to SE trajectory.

The CR XTNDED INIT (a.k.a. Superblend) POP/QPF grids seems to lag
somewhat behind the GFS/ECMWF during transitional periods. So have
made some blending changes to the init in an effort to try and
compensate for transitional differences and to maintain a greater
degree of consistency with the prior forecast.

The periods with the highest possibilities of precipitation are
SUN NT, TUE NT, and FRI NT. Model solutions are at least fairly
consistent in identifying these periods in which the higher POP
and QPF values coincide with the stronger short wave troughs
transition the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The majority of the
thunderstorm activity will be well south and west of the TAF
sites this evening and Sunday afternoon. Sunday morning there may
be some storms that develop near KMCK, but do not have enough
confidence in storm coverage to place a mention in the TAF at this
time. Otherwise winds will continue to be from the north as the
cold front moves through the TAF sites tonight.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL



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