775
FXUS64 KHUN 100515 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1215 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Deep convection has formed along a front across central Alabama
and is gradually shifting ESE along and south of the I-20
corridor. Closer to home, thankfully, more tranquil weather
conditions are in place as a drier air mass settles in, keeping us
free of storms. Dense cloud cover in the form of blow-off cirrus
remains across northeast Alabama, with mostly clear conditions
prevailing in the west. Once convection wanes to out south, clouds
should gradually disperse, especially in the 09-12z window. With
winds shifting to the north, temperatures will run cooler than
last night, eventually dropping into the lower 60s in most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

However, there may be wind for very low (20 to 30 percent) chances
of shower and thunderstorm development south of the Tennessee
River tonight (mainly in the evening), as this front pushes
through the area. Particularly, in Franklin southeast into
Cullman counties in Alabama. Not seeing much helicity forecast by
models, but moderate to high CAPE values (1000 to 2500 J/KG) and
steep lapse rates (6.5 to 8.0 degrees/km) are forecast by most
models with decent DCAPE around 1000 J/KG. So a severe
thunderstorm or two producing damaging winds or large hail cannot
be ruled out. Not expecting any watches due to mainly isolated
coverage of thunderstorm activity expected.

Some cloud cover is expected this evening with this activity
before cloud should dissipate. Clear skies and light winds are
expected and should enable lows to drop into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Expect some patchy fog could occur with decent
radiational cooling late.

A need dry and quiet weather pattern establishes itself Friday
through the weekend. Some cooler buy very pleasant conditions are
expected on Friday and Saturday. Highs will drop a bit into the
mid to upper 70s  with lows dropping into the upper 40s and 50s.

Sunday looks a bit warmer, as upper level ridging builds back over
the Tennessee Valley. Highs should climb back to around 80
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A partially closed upr low in the West CONUS will be ejected
eastward as heights begin to fall in the northern Rockies from
late Sunday night into Monday. Moisture advection/ascent ahead of
the pending upr trough could begin to bring rain to the area as
early as Monday morning. Instability will increase gradually on
Monday, but forecast thermal profiles just appear marginally
unstable at this time, limiting updraft strength and severe
potential. This trough may become partially closed again as it
makes its way eastward across the OH/TN Valley regions, with
chances for showers/thunderstorms continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Upper level
cloud cover from the storms to our south will persist overnight
but are expected to gradually thin out Friday morning. In fact,
clear skies are forecast by mid-evening on Friday. Winds overnight
will generally remain around 5 knots or less, but increase
through the morning hours. By early Friday afternoon, northwest
winds between 10-15 knots with gusts up to 15-20 knots are
anticipated. Although, winds will diminish through the evening
hours to be 5 knots or less once again by around midnight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26