Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252057 CCA
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

The main concern is with the deeper moisture return with the mid-
week upper trof and precip chances/temperature trends Tuesday
through Wednesday. For this evening, a modest upper trof will
slide east across the area. While this system is relatively
moisture starved, point forecast soundings from various short term
models show very weak elevated instability through early this
evening along the Oklahoma border counties. So will maintain at
least a mention of mainly trace event/isolated shower/sprinkle.
Otherwise, a breezy and warmer day is on tap for Monday with highs
expected to top 60F over the entire area. The aforementioned
upper trof will dive south along the West Coast through Monday
night with a closed low evolving over SoCal on Tuesday. An initial
flux of low level moisture will arrive across eastern Kansas by
Tuesday afternoon with modest chances for showers/isolated thunder
mainly along/east of the Kansas turnpike. This upper trof will
lift out across the Rockies and Plains from Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a cold front will settle south into
central Kansas Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Location of the
surface front will have a great impact on temperatures on
Wednesday with a large spread from northwest to southeast expected
across the forecast area. The degree of instability will also be
problematic in the warm sector with regard to chances for a few
strong storms in southeast Kansas as deep shear will be more than
adequate for organized storms. Areas of drizzle/fog also look to
plague parts of the area either side of the front. There is also a
slight chance that the air behind the front could be cold enough
for some freezing drizzle north of I-70 early Wednesday morning.
Overall, the most beneficial precip will again affect southeast
Kansas late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

A couple of quiet days expected for the latter part of the week in
the wake of the departing mid-week storm system/upper trof for the
start of meteorological Spring. Another larger scale upper
trof/low will develop across the Pacific Northwest. While periodic
shortwaves will rotate around and eject northeast around the mean
trof/low, they look to remain far enough northwest of Kansas with
little impact on our weather through Saturday. Not until perhaps
Sunday when the larger scale trof moves further east into the
northern Plains will the next front and chances for precip return
to the area.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected across all area airports today and
through the 18Z TAF period. Some mid-level clouds are making their
way through Central Kansas early this afternoon and are expected
to increase in south central Kansas later this afternoon and
evening. An occasional sprinkle cannot be ruled out for south
central and southeast Kansas (i.e. CNU, HUT, and ICT), though most
of the moisture will likely struggle to reach the ground with
drier air near the surface. Impacts to aviation should be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Stronger south winds, drier air and warmer temperatures on Monday
afternoon will result in very high grassland fire danger across
central Kansas. Western portions of the area may flirt with
extreme fire danger for a few hours if winds are a bit stronger
and relative humidity values a bit lower than forecast. Therefore
will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Barton and Russell counties
for this possibility. Moderate to low fire danger will exist on
Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing moisture/humidity values and
chances for wetting rains.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    26  61  40  61 /  10   0   0  30
Hutchinson      21  61  38  62 /  10   0   0  20
Newton          24  60  39  61 /  10   0   0  20
ElDorado        26  60  40  61 /  10   0   0  30
Winfield-KWLD   27  62  41  62 /  10   0   0  30
Russell         22  62  36  63 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      22  61  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          23  61  38  63 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       23  60  38  62 /   0   0   0  20
Coffeyville     29  63  39  63 /  10   0   0  30
Chanute         27  61  38  62 /  10   0   0  30
Iola            27  60  37  62 /  10   0   0  30
Parsons-KPPF    28  62  39  63 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for KSZ032-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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