Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221215
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
715 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DONT MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED THEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PUSH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH COMBO OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KS. BASED ON RADAR/
SATELLITE TRENDS...BEST AXIS IS BETWEEN GBD AND SLN. WILL KEEP
BRIEF TEMPORARY GOING AT KSLN WITH REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL THERE.
ODDS AT KRSL/KHUT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. TOUGH CALL ON WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE.  WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING...WILL LIMIT SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS TO VCTS NEAR KRSL AFTER
MIDDNIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL        101  71  98  72 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  72  99  72 /  20  10  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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