Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 240435
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TRACKED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AND
BREEZY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ATOP OF US NOW...WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE
ANYWHERE BEFORE A MORE POTENT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE MORE POTENT WAVE WILL SLOW IT`S
FORWARD PROGRESSION. AS THIS HAPPENS THE PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MAJOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO
BE A FOCUS...SO THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WHICH
COULD LIMIT TO SOME EXTENT THE COVERAGE. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NAM KEEPS THE COVERAGE LIMITED EXCEPT A PERIOD OF TIME LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD
THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE. WHILE
MODEST INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
NOT LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THINGS WILL DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE SITS OVER KANSAS.
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FEEL CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY REMAIN LOW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY GETS CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERLY STREAM. THIS DISTURBANCE THEN RETROGRADES FROM THE
WESTERN MIDWEST BACK TOWARD KANSAS AS SATURDAY APPROACHES. HOW
FAR THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST IS THE CURRENT QUESTION. THE LAST
FEW NAM PERIODS SUGGEST IT MOVING MUCH FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...BUT THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF ARE FURTHER EAST
WITH HOW FAR IT RETROGRADES...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS IS
IMPORTANT FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE
FURTHER EAST GUIDANCE HAVE KEPT THE WEEKEND DRY.

THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION FROM THIS FEATURE. WILL
WANT TO WATCH.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  80  61  83 /  70  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      59  81  59  83 /  60  40  20  10
NEWTON          57  77  59  82 /  60  40  20  10
ELDORADO        57  78  60  82 /  60  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  79  60  83 /  50  30  20  10
RUSSELL         61  83  60  83 /  30  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      60  82  59  83 /  30  20  20  10
SALINA          59  81  60  83 /  30  40  20  10
MCPHERSON       59  80  59  83 /  50  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  77  59  81 /  30  20  20  10
CHANUTE         55  77  59  81 /  40  20  20  10
IOLA            55  76  58  81 /  40  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  77  58  81 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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