Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 080442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL 88D`S SHOW AN MCV SPINNING OVER
SW OK AND STARTING TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THE FRONT THAT SWEPT
THROUGH LAST EVENING IS NOW SITUATED FROM NORTHERN AR INTO
SOUTHERN OK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAIN SHORTWAVE SWIRL OR WAVE ALONG THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND HEAVY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS BETWEEN 06-12Z/WED.  NOT SEEING ALOT OF
LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME OVER ERN OK...BUT MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER SE KS...SO THINK THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE...ALBEIT LOW TOPPED OR EMBEDDED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS ARE STILL IN THE 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
RANGE...SO THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY EFFICIENT EVEN WITH
THE LACK OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND LARGE STORM TOPS.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS WARRANTED GIVEN THE LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AFTER LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SW OK IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT TRACKING OVER SE KS BY EARLY WED MORNING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE 900-800MB LAYER WILL RAMP UP JUST EAST OF THE
UPPER FEATURE TONIGHT FOCUSING OVER EASTERN OK/SE KS. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2" WOULD EXPECTED VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS WOULD
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOOD WARNINGS TONIGHT EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE WITH WICHITA BEING ON THE NW FRINGES OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. FOR WED MORNING THE MCV WILL BE APPROACHING
THE OZARK REGION AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WE
SHOULD SEE THE RAINFALL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH ONLY NORTHEAST FRINGES SEEING RAINFALL BY THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS NW KS/SW NEBRASKA WED NIGHT. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OVER SW KS WITH THIS AREA OF
LIFT SPREADING EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SO MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
WED AND THU WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING FRIDAY
WILL BE FOR UPPER RIDGING TO SLOWLY BUILD-IN. BY SAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST ON SUN INTO MON. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS STARTING FRI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 AT THE CENTURY MARK BY SUN AND
REMAINING FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF KS AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE AREA.
SO WILL GO WITH PREVAILING VCSH FOR THE KICT/KCNU TAF SITES AS THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AROUND.

A WAVE ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CENTRAL
OK WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...PUSHING THE EFFECTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO SE KS AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS MOST OF SE KS EARLY WED MORNING. SO
WILL GO WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MODERATE RAIN AND VCTS FOR KCNU
AFTER 09Z/WED THROUGH WED MORNING.  ON THE NW-WRN EDGE OF THE
MODERATE RAIN...EXPECT SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN TO LEAD TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SOME SHOWERS TO EXPAND OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KS.  SO WILL GO WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE KICT AND KHUT TAFS FOR
THIS CHANCE AFTER 09Z/WED.

THE KRSL AND KSLN TAF WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THINK
SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO LEAD
TO MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS WELL BY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  75  64  83 /  60  30  40  50
HUTCHINSON      59  77  62  82 /  30  20  40  60
NEWTON          60  75  61  81 /  50  30  30  50
ELDORADO        61  74  61  81 /  70  30  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  76  64  84 /  80  30  40  50
RUSSELL         55  80  62  80 /  10  10  50  60
GREAT BEND      56  80  62  83 /  10  10  50  60
SALINA          58  76  61  81 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       59  76  61  81 /  30  20  40  60
COFFEYVILLE     64  75  64  83 /  90  80  30  50
CHANUTE         63  73  61  81 /  90  90  30  60
IOLA            62  72  59  81 /  80  90  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    64  74  63  82 /  90  80  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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