Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 302336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLDER
CANADIAN AIRMASS CAN BE SEEN PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRATUS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. STRATUS MAY HOLD TOGETHER
BEHIND THE FRONT...PUSHING INTO POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FOR MAYBE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ADVERTISED MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. A FEW OF OUR NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL KANSAS MAY HAVE A BORDERLINE OR NEAR FREEZE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A HARD FREEZE WITH PROGGED LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE 20S.

LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT...
BECOMING VERY GUSTY BY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY ACHIEVING ADVISORY
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE VERY SLIGHT WITH INITIAL
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN COMING UP FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...SO A BIT MORE WEIGHT PUT TOWARD THIS
MODEL. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LOOKS MOST LIKELY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS
TARGETED. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE NICE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME LOWER CIGS FOR SE KS LATE
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO SPILL
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA
AND MAY AFFECT EASTERN KS AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT KCNU WOULD HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THESE MVFR CIGS WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THEY REMAIN ABOVE IFR LEVELS. BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE BACK IN PLACE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  47  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          33  46  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        35  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  46  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  47  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          33  45  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  45  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     38  48  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         36  46  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            36  45  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    37  47  23  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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