Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 041139
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
539 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Today-Monday:
Clouds/precipitation should continue to end from west-east
throughout the morning. Expect precipitation to be east of the
area by noon. Expecting decent recovery today in absence of high
level clouds, with weak downslope flow and insolation offset by wet
ground and low sun angle. Hedged just a bit warmer in west where
effects of insolation will be longest. Tonight is a challenge
with wet ground keeping dew points up and return flow developing.
Hourly temperatures likely a challenge with marginal mixing
keeping temperatures fluctuating throughout the night, but net
result was to hedge a bit warmer in the west. One more warm day
anticipated on Monday with a decent breeze from the south.
Compact southern stream system may clip a small part of Southeast
KS with light rain in the afternoon.

Monday night-Tuesday:
Precipitation chances/coverage ramp up a bit in Southeast KS in
the evening as system moves closer to that area. Otherwise cold
air still on track to blast through the area later Monday night
and early on Tuesday. Cold air advection will be slightly offset
by insolation, but brisk north winds will make it feel even
colder. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Models have become pretty consistent with snow developing towards
daybreak Wednesday as a fast moving shortwave interacts with
baroclinic zone. Considerable differences between GFS/NAM soundings
for Wednesday morning. However both suggest, albeit via slightly
different means, potential for brief period of efficient snow
production. This would support a few inches of snow over parts of
Central and South Central KS Wednesday morning. Below freezing
temperatures will linger through Thursday before the warmup
commences on Friday and Saturday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Widespread light rain was impacting southeast KS this morning with
LIFR at KCNU. Rain should begin to propagate eastward away from
the area by around 15z although low cigs may linger across
portions of southeast KS through around 17-19z before VFR returns.
Further west, patchy dense fog and patchy low cigs were driving
flight categories into the LIFR/VLIFR briefly and this is expected
to be transient as drier air arrives bringing widespread VFR to
central and south central KS by 13-15z. Light westerly winds are
anticipated through the period becoming breezy as we move into the
day on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  31  53  30 /  20   0   0  10
Hutchinson      52  29  53  27 /  10   0   0  10
Newton          50  32  52  27 /  20   0   0  10
ElDorado        51  31  52  30 /  30   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   52  31  53  31 /  40   0  10  10
Russell         51  29  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      51  29  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          50  30  54  25 /  10   0   0  10
McPherson       50  29  52  26 /  10   0   0  10
Coffeyville     54  31  53  35 /  80   0  20  40
Chanute         51  30  53  32 /  80   0  10  20
Iola            50  30  52  32 /  80   0  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    51  30  52  34 /  80   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM


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