Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 212055
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND HAS
GOTTEN PROGRESSIVELY WORSE. THIS IS FROM PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE AS WELL AS OTHERS. KICT
88D AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING AND MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO KANSAS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OVERLAID 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOW A
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS THROUGH IS
PROGRESSING VERY SLOWLY WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE REGION IN THIS
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.

SHORT TERM WEATHER FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS/FOG. GIVEN
THE RECENT TRENDS OF THESE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FORECAST OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS
WHETHER DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR. THE MOISTURE IS THERE...BUT WIND MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE IT AS WELL AS ANY RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL
HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS LOCATED IN MONTANA TODAY...WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED. THIS WILL PROLONG THE TIME THIS SYSTEM SITS OVER AND
AFFECTS THE REGION.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BEGIN AS RAIN BUT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW DURING THE EVENT SHOULD IT OCCUR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK
VERY LIGHT WITH THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BECOMES RATHER PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
PERIOD WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SINCE THE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE...THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL REMAIN CLOSED.
FURTHERMORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER MODERATE.

KRC
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME.
THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME
IMPROVMENT OCCURS DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  52  32  41 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      40  51  30  39 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          41  51  30  39 /  40  20  10  10
ELDORADO        42  52  32  40 /  50  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  52  34  42 /  30  20  20  10
RUSSELL         35  49  28  38 /  40  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      36  50  28  39 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          40  51  30  39 /  50  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       40  51  30  39 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     44  53  36  42 /  40  30  30  10
CHANUTE         42  52  34  41 /  50  30  20  10
IOLA            42  51  34  40 /  70  30  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  52  34  41 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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