Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202055
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
255 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

In the short term, low-level cloud cover that was widespread
across the area this morning and early afternoon has been mixing
out from west to east across the area. Behind the clearing, sunny
skies have been prevailed allowing temperatures to climb into the
upper 50s in central Kansas and low 60s in south central and
southeast Kansas.

Overnight tonight, low level moisture will once again make its way
into central Kansas and along the Flint Hills and could
potentially saturate the air enough to produce some patchy
drizzle. The biggest uncertainty surrounds exactly how low
temperatures are expected to drop to coincide with this low-level
moisture in central KS. ECMWF, SREF, Canadian, and NAM indicate
that areas of patchy freezing drizzle are possible with temps
dropping to the freezing mark or slightly below, while the HRRR
and GFS are less agressive with the push of cold air advection
into the northwest corner of the CWA. Therefore, not ruling out a
few areas of isolated patchy freezing drizzle in Central Kansas
tonight and into early Sunday, but ice accumulations and travel
impacts should be minimal.

The focus of the forecast will then shift to the impressive upper
level trough currently situated over the southwestern U.S. This
system is expected to strengthen and push a surface low over Kansas
through the day on Sunday night into Monday. Though it is expected
to bring some significant winter weather to portions of western
Kansas and Nebraska, a wedge of dry air that will be situated over
much of the forecast area should prevent the bulk of the CWA from
receiving significant impacts from the system while keeping most
snowfall further to our north. With that being said, current
thinking is that areas of central and eastern Kansas could see up to
1-2 inches of snow locally Sunday night-Monday.

Additionally, with a very tight pressure gradient force in the wake
of the shortwave on Monday, northwest winds will be quite high with
gusts up to 45mph possible in central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Following the frontal passage, an upper level ridge will dominate
the synoptic pattern through much of next week before the next
shortwave begins approaching the region next weekend. Temperatures
are expected to cool back down heading into Monday, though will
be around normal for the time of year with highs in the mid 40s.
Another gradual warming trend will then continue through Friday of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

A cold front will sink south bisecting central KS tonight. There
remains some timing differences that lead to low confidence in how
quickly the low level airmass becomes saturated and how quickly
temperatures fall below freezing. Due to the uncertainty, the TAF
forecasts for KRSL and KGBD do not include any drizzle or
freezing drizzle at this time. Low ceilings are also expected to
expand in coverage late tonight across much of eastern KS where
abundant low level moisture will remain in place. Reduced flight
categories are likely there but temperatures will remain mild and
well above freezing. Breezy southerly winds will prevail ahead of
the front while northeast winds are expected in it`s wake.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Very high grassland fire danger is expected across nearly all
portions of central, south central, and southeast Kansas on
Monday. Strong winds out of the north/northeast with sustained
speeds around 35mph and gusts near 45mph are possible. Very high
grassland fire danger will also be present in central and south
central Kansas on Thursday and Friday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  59  32  44 /  10  20  20  20
Hutchinson      38  55  31  42 /  10  20  30  30
Newton          42  55  31  40 /  10  30  30  40
ElDorado        45  59  32  41 /  10  30  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   47  62  33  45 /  10  20  10  10
Russell         32  43  29  41 /  20  40  70  40
Great Bend      33  46  30  43 /  10  30  60  30
Salina          36  50  31  40 /  20  40  40  50
McPherson       38  53  31  41 /  20  30  40  40
Coffeyville     50  65  36  45 /  10  40  30  10
Chanute         47  62  34  42 /  20  40  40  20
Iola            46  61  34  41 /  20  40  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    49  63  35  43 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...TAV



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