Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240941
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
341 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

An upper trough will intensify as it moves from the Central plains
to the Mid-Upper Mississippi Valley Today into Tonight. Strong
cold air advection, via brisk northwesterly winds of 15 to 25
mph/gusty, is expected to keep mostly cloudy skies in place today
and temperatures from recovering much diurnally today. A few
flurries or sprinkles could affect Central Kansas today in wrap-
around moisture, behind the deepening upper system. Surface high
pressure will build into the region tonight into Saturday, with
slightly colder than average air and lessening wind.

A couple of progressive shortwaves will eject out of a western CONUS
upper trough across the Central/Southern Plains Sunday into Sunday
night. 850-700 moist/warm air advection, associated with these
waves, will result in chances of light precipitation in south-
central/southeast Kansas (light rain or a light rain/snow mix).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A mean longwave upper trough is expected to translate slowly
eastward across Central Plains during this extended forecast period,
with several embedded shortwaves. These waves will interact with
modified Gulf moisture return, resulting in low-moderate precipitation
chances Monday into Tuesday, before drier/cooler air moves in for
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

There are 2 concerns:
1) MVFR cigs that in a few instances will brush IFR levels.
2) NW winds that are sustaqined 17-22kts w/ 30-35kt gusts.

All terminals wl rmn in MVFR cig status thru late Fri mrng when
cigs acrs all of Cntrl & SC KS should reach ~3,500ft. NW winds wl
dmnsh somewhat twd 12Z but quickly incr to ~22kts sustained w/
~30kt gusts. Such velocities wl persist thrut the day but should
dmnsh early Fri Eve.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Gusty northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will result in very high
grassland fire danger levels this afternoon across most of the
region, however minimum afternoon relative humidities are expected
to remain above 40 percent. Lesser winds and cooler air will keep
fire danger levels low-moderate this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  22  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      41  22  45  29 /  10   0   0  10
Newton          40  21  44  29 /  10   0   0  10
ElDorado        42  22  44  30 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   45  23  46  31 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         36  18  44  25 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      38  18  45  25 /  10   0   0  10
Salina          39  21  45  29 /  10  10   0  10
McPherson       41  21  44  28 /  10   0   0  10
Coffeyville     50  25  47  29 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         46  23  45  28 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            46  23  45  28 /  10  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    48  24  46  29 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...JMC



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