Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 020840
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CHANCES
THRU EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL RESULT
IN SOME PATCHY DENSE CIRRUS TO START THE DAY...THOUGH MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH MAXS A TAD WARMER THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE FORENOON ON WEAK
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE MODEST/WANING LOW LEVEL
JET THIS MORNING...WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO THE FLINT HILLS JUST
EAST OF GREATER WICHITA. OTHERWISE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO KANSAS...AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON FLOW/WESTERN CONUS
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLAN
TO MAINTAIN AND TRANSITION MODEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
FLOW REGIME BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN EASTERN CONUS TROF
ALLOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER PLAINS. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WE GET THERE FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIODS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
IN THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SO FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH REGARD TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE EARLY ON
SUN MORNING.  COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR ACROSS
SE KS.  SO WILL GO WITH A 3SM BR FOR THE KCNU TAF FOR THIS CHANCE
FROM 10-14Z/SUN.  COULD SEE SOME ISOLD 1/2SM FG...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION THIS IN THE TAF. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  30
HUTCHINSON      94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  40
NEWTON          93  71  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        93  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  30
RUSSELL         96  70  95  69 /  10  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      95  70  94  69 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          97  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         94  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            94  69  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  69  95  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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