Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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886
FXUS63 KICT 032113
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Main challenges are precip type tonight in central Kansas, then
timing and magnitude of initial polar surge Monday night/Tuesday.
Isentropic lift ahead of the approaching shortwave upper trof
will continue to saturate the lower troposphere with light rain
becoming a bit more numerous across the eastern half of Kansas
through this evening. While mainly rain, some snow could still
mix in over the higher terrain in central Kansas west of K-14
tonight. Otherwise, precip chances will show a quick demise with
passage of the trof early Sunday morning. There could be a
transient area of fog and drizzle along the I-135 corridor near
the time of the surface frontal passage, and perhaps a trace of
ice as temperatures drop to around freezing in central Kansas
before the light precip ends. The weather still looks benign
Sunday afternoon through Monday as Kansas awaits the first true
taste of cold Winter weather. The upper low that gets kicked
northeast out of Mexico across the southern Plains Monday into
Monday night may give the southeast corner of Kansas some light
rain, though better chances will remain well south of the region.
The evolving upper low over south central Canada and associated
initial southward plunge of polar air is still set to arrive in
Kansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. Little change to the
going forecast was needed except to tweak the north wind up a bit
as it ushers in Winter early Tuesday morning.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

High confidence in temperatures averaging much below climo thru
the coming week. There seems to be better continuity in the
medium range with the deep longwave upper trof axis shifting from
the central into the eastern conus by the end of the week. The
secondary surge of colder/Arctic air looks to be accompanied by
a period of accumulating snowfall to parts of Kansas late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. While rather progressive, the potential for
a period of lift in the optimal dendritic snow growth zone should
allow for a light to moderate snowfall in some areas. Otherwise,
the main theme will be the cold and low wind chills, with the
coldest nights looking to be Wednesday night and Thursday night.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Radar and observation data shows a rain/snow line that extends
from near Concordia, Kansas southwest through Dodge City Kansas.
IFR conditions across western Kansas will persist and gradually
move across the state.

The precipitation will overspread the eastern portion of Kansas
this evening. The rain/snow line will gradually make it east but
not that far. It will not make much of a difference anyway as
temperatures will remain above freezing where it is precipitating.

IFR conditions clear out by Noon tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  52  31  53 /  80  10   0  10
Hutchinson      32  51  29  53 /  70  10   0  10
Newton          35  51  30  52 /  80  10   0  10
ElDorado        36  52  31  53 /  90  20   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   36  53  31  53 /  90  20   0  10
Russell         26  49  27  52 /  40   0   0   0
Great Bend      27  49  27  53 /  40   0   0   0
Salina          31  51  28  54 /  70  10   0   0
McPherson       32  51  28  53 /  70  10   0  10
Coffeyville     38  53  32  52 /  90  40   0  30
Chanute         37  52  31  52 /  90  40   0  20
Iola            37  52  30  52 /  90  40   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    37  53  32  52 /  90  40   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KRC



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