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000
FXUS63 KICT 181740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

INITIAL FOCUS IS SMALL MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. VARIOUS MODELS
ARE GIVING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...EVERYTHING FROM DENIAL TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.
HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. IT SUGGESTS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE JUST
ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA MID MORNING...HOWEVER
IT BLOWS UP MORE CONVECTION ALONG THIS OUTFLOW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT UNREASONABLE...BUT GIVEN
VERIFICATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ON WEAKER CONVECTION...
WILL SEVERELY LIMIT BOTH AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS FOR NOW...AND
LET DAY SHIFT TWEAK AS WARRANTED.

STILL APPEARS TO BE DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TO CLIP AT LEAST WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT IF
STORMS ARE NOT ALREADY ONGOING IN CENTRAL KS. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH ONSET /POSSIBLE ROUND TWO/
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ALL SUGGEST FAIR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AREAS WIDE WED/WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU IN
SOUTHEAST KS. HIGHS ON WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED FROM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. HAVE TWEAKED /MOSTLY UP/ INITIALIZATION
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION DURING THE LAST WARMUP.
DGEX/ECMWF AND SURPRISINGLY GFS MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
OUTPERFORMED VARIOUS INITIALIZATION BLENDS IN THE EXTEND PERIODS
OF THE LAST WARMUP. HAVE OPTED TO NIX PRECIPITATION ON MON GIVEN
FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON BOTH 500MB FLOW
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATION.  -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY STORM
IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL OVER ANOTHER IS LOW...AND HAVE LEFT
VCTS OR PREVAILING TS GROUP OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON .
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER KRSL/KSLN IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVOLUTION AND DIRECTION
THIS CONVECTION IS GOING TO TAKE IS IN QUESTION...BUT IT MAY
IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. AGAIN...DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE
HAVE LEFT A MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...THINKING THAT
LATER GUIDANCE MAY INCREASE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  66  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      89  67  84  69 /  10  20  30  30
NEWTON          89  66  83  68 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        87  65  83  70 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  67  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         89  67  85  66 /  20  30  30  40
GREAT BEND      89  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  40
SALINA          89  66  85  71 /  20  20  30  40
MCPHERSON       89  66  84  69 /  10  20  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     87  66  85  71 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         86  65  85  69 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            86  65  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  70 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$