Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 241130
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

A mid/upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley area this
morning is progged to dig south and southeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley area through the day. Meanwhile, high pressure at
the surface will build across the Central Plains states. We may see
some afternoon cumulus especially across Southeast KS but abundant
insolation and relatively light winds should allow highs to climb to
around 70 for most locations.

Low level moisture will race north across the area on Thursday as a
shortwave trough emerges from the Central Rockies late in the
period. Storms may initiate across Western Kansas and spread
eastward into portions of Central KS overnight. This activity may
struggle as it propagates eastward due to a strong capping inversion
progged across the area. Maintained low pops across portions of
Central KS but much of Southern KS should remain dry.

Friday...The cold front is progged to stall across Northern or
Central OK on Friday where the better instability will reside.
Further north, isolated storms may develop within a moist easterly
post-frontal regime across portions of Southeast KS but higher
probabilities should remain across the high plains of Western KS.
Some of this activity may drift eastward impacting portions of
Central KS during the evening/overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Another shortwave trough is progged to move across the Rockies
and into the Central Plains on Sat keeping precipitation in the
forecast. A drier post-frontal regime is anticipated late in the
weekend/early next week in northwest mid/upper flow. As the main
mid/upper trough builds over the Great Lakes area, another
shortwave trough may bring a chance for precipitation late Mon
into Tue but timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF lead to
low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Residual moisture wrapping around the back side of the departing
low across Missouri and diurnal heating will lead to a period of
BKN stratocu across eastern Kansas. This will affect primarily the
KCNU terminal in southeast Kansas. Otherwise northwest winds will
become light and variable by this evening as a weak surface ridge
moves across the area. A south to southeast wind flow will develop
in the wake of the departing ridge axis tonight across central
Kansas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  49  80  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      70  48  79  59 /   0   0   0  20
Newton          68  47  78  60 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        68  47  79  60 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   69  50  81  62 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         70  48  80  56 /   0   0   0  30
Great Bend      71  49  81  57 /   0   0   0  30
Salina          70  48  80  59 /   0   0   0  20
McPherson       70  47  79  59 /   0   0   0  20
Coffeyville     68  46  79  64 /  10   0   0  10
Chanute         67  45  78  62 /  10   0   0  20
Iola            66  45  78  62 /  10   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    67  46  78  64 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED


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