Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 250833
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Today:
Based on current and yesterday trends, and decent MUCAPES, suspect
storms/precipitation just west of forecast area continue will
track east across area this morning, with precipitation on the
wane by mid-late morning. Given weak forcing, not anticipating
much if any coverage this afternoon and early eve. Could see an
uptick after 0000 UTC, but more likely will be later tonight per
recent trends/climatology.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Given little change in overall pattern, will be stuck with low
pops and roughly persistence temperatures on Tuesday. Models do
have fairly good agreement with 500MB trough passage during the
day on Wednesday, which should support a better chance of storms
during the day, with chances waning Wednesday night. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Thursday-Sunday:
Little change in overall pattern with area in persistent WNW.
Given pattern, will likely see periodic rounds of storms coming
off the high plains, with higher chances for storms in the early
morning hours...and rogue afternoon storms. Will have chances of
rain all periods, but anticipate best chances in the 08-15z time
frame, with secondary peak in the late afternoon/early evening
hours. Most areas will be dry for most of the time. Temperatures
should be seasonal, but will be highly and locally dependent on
precipitation/clouds. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Main aviation concern will remain overnight storm chances.

Isolated showers/storms have developed generally west of I-135
over the last hour. Elevated parcels are very unstable with
minimal capping. With lack of decent forcing, tough to pin down
which sites have the best storm chances over the next few hours.
So won`t get cute and will just run with VCTS at all sites with
the exception of KCNU which will have a chance of storms a few
hours later. Still feel some of the activity coming off the front
range will have a decent chance to make it in here, generally
after 3am. Storm chances Mon don`t look as good as they do
overnight due to the front washing out and some subsidence behind
any MCS that pushes east Mon morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    91  72  93  73 /  60  20  20  20
Hutchinson      90  71  92  72 /  50  20  20  20
Newton          89  71  91  72 /  60  20  20  20
ElDorado        90  72  91  73 /  60  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   92  73  92  73 /  60  20  20  20
Russell         90  70  93  71 /  30  10  20  20
Great Bend      91  70  93  71 /  50  20  20  20
Salina          93  72  95  74 /  40  20  20  20
McPherson       89  70  91  71 /  50  20  20  20
Coffeyville     91  73  92  73 /  50  30  20  10
Chanute         89  72  91  73 /  50  20  20  10
Iola            89  72  91  73 /  50  20  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    90  73  91  73 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL



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