Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO
COME ON SHORE OVER NORTHERN CA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH
WEAKER IMPULSE SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SW IOWA WITH LEE TROUGHING AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE WILL SPREAD SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE TODAY FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM ADVECTION/DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280-295K LAYER WILL
REALLY RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THIS IS WHEN SNOW
SHOULD START ACCUMULATING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL RATES ON SAT DUE TO LACK OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ON
SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER JET LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER
MAINLY CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT WHICH MAY HELP DEVELOP A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SWATH OF SNOW. LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE SAT NIGHT.

THINGS START TO GET MESSY FOR SUN AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE
800-700MB LAYER INTRODUCES MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES. THE ECMWF DID
COME IN COLDER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS WARM LAYER AND HAS BEEN THAT
WAY FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW. IF IT WOULD VERIFY MOST OF THE
PRECIP TYPE SUN MORNING WOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET FOR NOW SUN MORNING WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN KS. BY SUN AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIVE ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

SO WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL NOT STARTING UNTIL AROUND 12Z
SAT...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EVEN ON SHORE YET. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT
WITH AMOUNTS STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

ONE OF THE CHANGES WAS TO LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE 12-18Z SAT TIME FRAME AS IT MAY TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS. SO WE ARE LOOKING AT
AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE THROUGH SUN WITH SOME ICE/SLEET
POSSIBLE SUN MORNING OVER THE SOUTHER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE LIKELY.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN SETUP OVER THE PLAINS
FOR MON AS A SHARP TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN BY MON AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE POLAR FRONT...PUSHING IT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUE. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS TUE. THE ECMWF MAY
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THE AIRMASS WED WILL BE JUST LIKE THE ONE OVER US NOW WITH HIGHS
20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WHICH IS CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE OCCURRING AT TIMES...MAINLY AT KICT/KHUT AND WILL
BE FOCUSED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY...BUT SOME LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE
WINTER STORM BEGINS IN FULL SWING. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BEGIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS...IMPACTING KHUT/KICT
FIRST AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT A DROP IN VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WHEN
THE SNOW BEGINS...BUT HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR NOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RH`S ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY
IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE. THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR
SAT AT SPEEDS IN THE 10-14 MPH RANGE. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
ALL OF THE AREA FOR THE SAT-SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH MIXED
PRECIP POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    23  16  28  25 /  30  20  90  80
HUTCHINSON      23  14  27  23 /  30  20  90  70
NEWTON          22  14  26  24 /  20  20  90  80
ELDORADO        22  17  28  25 /  20  20  90  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   23  16  29  26 /  30  20  80  80
RUSSELL         22  12  27  21 /  10  20  70  70
GREAT BEND      23  14  27  23 /  20  20  70  70
SALINA          23  13  28  23 /  10  10  80  80
MCPHERSON       23  13  27  23 /  20  20  90  70
COFFEYVILLE     24  16  31  29 /  20  10  80  80
CHANUTE         22  14  30  27 /  10  10  90  80
IOLA            22  14  29  27 /  10  10  90  80
PARSONS-KPPF    23  15  31  28 /  10  10  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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