Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

884
FXUS63 KICT 281752
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1252 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY ALLOWING EASTERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

INCREASING 290-295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN DIFFLUENT H5 FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 AFTER 06Z. ONGOING
ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF ELEVATED HAILERS FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW
AND WOULD SUPPORT A NARROW WINDOW WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. A
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF WOULD BE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANCHORED MAINLY SOUTH OF 54/400 FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN THE STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/STRONGER H5 FLOW
MOVES OVER THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED H5
TROUGH.

SAT-SUN...THE VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AND SHEAR
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WE MOVE TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND RISING TEMPERATURES TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT RSL-SLN FOR A
FEW HOURS EARLY-MID THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECTING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT...WITH THESE CHANCES CONTINUING FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE...LOW
VFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY
EARLY-MID MORNING FRIDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  53  67  52 /   0  60  80  80
HUTCHINSON      69  50  62  48 /   0  60  80  80
NEWTON          68  50  65  52 /  10  50  70  80
ELDORADO        69  52  67  54 /   0  40  70  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  54  70  54 /   0  50  80  80
RUSSELL         63  44  54  42 /  10  70  80  90
GREAT BEND      66  45  57  43 /  10  80  80  80
SALINA          66  46  60  49 /  10  50  70  80
MCPHERSON       68  49  62  49 /  10  60  70  80
COFFEYVILLE     72  56  71  59 /   0  20  70  80
CHANUTE         70  53  69  59 /   0  20  50  80
IOLA            69  52  68  59 /   0  20  50  80
PARSONS-KPPF    71  55  70  59 /   0  20  60  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.