Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS63 KICT 242325
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Main forecast concern is the potential for thunderstorms and severe
weather.

Initial Gulf moisture return is expected Thursday ahead of upper
troughing over the western CONUS. A weakening shortwave along the
California coast this afternoon, is progged to eject east-
northeastward out of Colorado across Kansas late Thursday into
Thursday night. Isolated-scattered severe storms are progged to
develop over northeast Colorado Thursday afternoon, in modestly
moist, post-frontal upslope flow. This activity may merge into an
MCS cluster, propagating eastward across northwestern and north
central Kansas Thursday evening/overnight. These storms may pose
a marginal severe wind/hail threat to our central Kansas counties,
with moderate-strong instability/shear present along with very
steep mid-level lapse rates. Maintaining a dry forecast Thursday
night in the south, where the elevated mixed layer should keep
the area capped.

On Friday, the cold front is projected to stall from central
Missouri to central Oklahoma, with the trailing western end of the
front up into eastern Colorado. The next shortwave energy is progged
to eject out across the central/southern High Plains late Friday,
and across Kansas Friday night into Saturday. Friday looks warm and
humid with most or all of the forecast area remaining dry. Scattered
severe storms should initiate over eastern Colorado Friday
afternoon/evening, from the combination of moist upslope flow and
the approaching wave. This activity could merge into another MCS
cluster or two, propagating eastward across Kansas Friday night
into Saturday, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet and
upper-level support. Very strong instability and strong deep-
layer shear will support organized severe storms in the forecast
area, as the upper wave and MCS clusters move through. Outflow
effects from overnight convection Friday night, could affect where
the effective front ends up by peak heating Saturday
afternoon/evening. Present indications are that extreme
instability and strong shear target the southeast part of Kansas
near the front, with a relatively higher probability of severe
storms east of the Kansas Turnpike.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The main upper low is progged to move from south-central Canada to
the Great Lakes and upper Midwest by Tuesday. This will shunt the
richer Gulf moisture/instability southward to the Gulf states from
Sunday into Tuesday. A front is progged to drop southward into the
Kansas region late Monday or Monday night, where it may stall
through midweek beneath a northwest-southeast oriented mid-level
baroclinic zone. This may support small chances for
showers/storms. Seasonal temperatures are expected during this
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across central and
south central Kansas for the next 24hrs. Light winds tonight will
gradually increase and switch to the south during the day on
Thursday, as surface pressure gradient tightens up a bit during
the afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  80  61  83 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson      50  79  59  82 /   0   0  20   0
Newton          49  78  60  81 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        48  79  61  83 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   49  81  62  85 /   0   0  10   0
Russell         49  80  56  80 /   0   0  40  10
Great Bend      50  81  57  80 /   0   0  30  10
Salina          50  80  59  82 /   0   0  20  10
McPherson       49  79  59  81 /   0   0  20  10
Coffeyville     46  79  64  85 /   0   0  10  20
Chanute         46  78  62  83 /   0   0  10  20
Iola            46  78  62  82 /   0   0  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    46  78  63  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CDJ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.