Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240524
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1124 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

With temperatures hovering at or just below freezing, the winter
weather advisory will be expanded a bit further into south central
KS for tonight into Sat morning. Light ice accumulations,
especially on elevated surfaces will be possible with freezing
drizzle through the overnight hours.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Pops were increased across southeast tonight based on recent radar
trends with widespread precipitation developing across all of
eastern OK. This activity will drift northeast impacting all of
southeast KS tonight where temperatures will remain above freezing.
Further north and west, little changes were made as the freezing
line continues to bisect the forecast area with temperatures near
or slightly below freezing mainly along and west of the Kansas
Turnpike area. The freezing drizzle area was expanded slightly
into portions of south central KS but with temperatures hovering
near freezing, the impacts are expected to remain limited with no
changes to the winter weather advisory at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Main concern is how far south to go with light ice accumulation
potential in central Kansas tonight/Saturday morning from freezing
drizzle. Easterly component upslope surface flow will prevail this
evening/tonight as the approaching upper trof moves over the Rockies.
Meanwhile, a moist southwest flow aloft across the southern Plains
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley will continue as well with
southeast Kansas on the northern periphery of the deeper moist
ascent and transient shortwave providing more widespread showers
and isolated thunderstorms early tonight. The main challenge
overnight is the southern extent of the sub-freezing surface air
which could vary anywhere from the I-70 corridor to as far south
as the highway 50 corridor. The RAP/NAM/HRRR are further south in
this respect and provide enough confidence to add a row of
counties on the southern extent of the current Winter Weather
Advisory. The main upper trof will lift out across the northern
and central Plains during Saturday with far southern Kansas
getting into a drier and milder westerly component low level flow
in the afternoon. Southeast Kansas looks to be affected by another
round of showers/isolated thunder around midday with a wintry mix
or even brief snow showers along/north of I-70 under the colder
trof passage aloft before progressive clearing from west to east
by late afternoon and evening for all locales. Seasonably mild and
dry weather is still expected to close out the weekend on Sunday
with even warmer weather on Monday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

An upper low will evolve across California and the Southwest CONUS
through early next week. However there remain differences on its
movement across the central or southern CONUS during the mid-week
periods. Plan to make little change to the going forecast in showing
modest chances for precip late Tuesday through Wednesday night.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Widespread IFR and LIFR will prevail through the night and into
much of the day on Sat with widespread light precipitation. The
freezing line is expected to remain nearly stationary through the
night with light freezing drizzle anticipated across much of
central and portions of south central KS. Freezing drizzle will
likely impact KGBD, KRSL, KSLN and KHUT. As you move south and
east drizzle and light rain is anticipated as surface temperatures
are progged to remain near or just above freezing. Conditions
will begin to improve by midday on Sat with some breaks in the
clouds expected by afternoon as winds shift to the west/northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Grassland fire weather conditions will remain low through the
weekend.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  47  22  54 /  60  50   0   0
Hutchinson      30  45  20  53 /  50  50   0   0
Newton          30  45  22  52 /  60  50   0   0
ElDorado        32  46  24  53 /  60  50  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   33  50  24  56 /  70  60   0   0
Russell         30  40  18  51 /  60  60   0   0
Great Bend      30  42  18  52 /  50  60   0   0
Salina          31  42  20  52 /  50  50   0   0
McPherson       30  44  20  52 /  50  50   0   0
Coffeyville     39  54  27  57 /  90  80  10   0
Chanute         37  50  26  54 /  90  60  10   0
Iola            35  49  25  54 /  90  60  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    37  52  25  56 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MWM
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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