Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231728
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1228 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO END THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
SURFACE VISIBILITIES SLOWLY RISE.  MAY KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN FOR A
FEW HOURS...BUT GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID CLOUDINESS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SO WILL SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES.
THINK MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WILL STAY IN THE
CLOUDINESS FOR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING ANY
REMNANT SHOWERS FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT.
850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS FRI ONLY ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY WARM
READINGS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS IN KEEPING THIS
AN OPEN...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MON...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. JUST LIKE THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING US
NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MON INTO TUE AND WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW/MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM NW TO SE AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS.
KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT HAVE ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND THINK KICT WILL
SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS LINGER
THE LONGEST OVER SE KS...WITH KCNU NOT SCATTERING OUT UNTIL AROUND
00-01Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THIS CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES AS  DRIER
AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRI MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.  GFS SHOWS THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION FOR NOW AS OTHER
SOLUTIONS DRY THINGS OUT MORE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  56  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          75  54  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         74  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      74  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          74  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       74  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     73  54  82  56 /  30  10   0   0
CHANUTE         73  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            73  53  82  55 /  40  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    72  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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