Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311722
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES/PLACEMENT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL SUMMER
TIME HEAT. KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN RATHER WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY EACH DAY. WHILE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO...THEY APPEAR RELATIVELY
SMALL. BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOK TO RESIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL STAY PRIMARILY JUST
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PROVIDE
A RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION...ALBEIT
SLIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO MODEST POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST
ARE LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO POPS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A SCATTERED MID-LOW LEVEL DECK
IS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH
COULD IMPACT KHUT...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT THOSE CEILINGS TO REMAIN
ABOVE 3000 FT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE PRESENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
TOWARDS MORNING AS WELL AT MANY SITES. MANY OF THE SITES MAY ALSO
SEE SOME PATCHY LOWER VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
IF WINDS SLACKEN OFF AGAIN...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT IT COULD BRIEFLY
CAUSE A DECREASE IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-14Z SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  92  71 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      92  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          92  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        91  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  92  71 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELL         92  67  93  69 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      91  67  92  69 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  68  93  71 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     91  69  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         92  68  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            91  68  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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