Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS63 KICT 152136
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
336 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Forecast Highlights:
1: Exceptionally warm weather Fri with record highs approached in
KICT.

2: Strong cold front set to plow through KICT Country late Fri
Night/early Sat Morning.

Tonight-Thu Night:
A compact mid-level shortwave with a slight negative tilt will
scoot E/NE across the northern plains late tonight & Thu. This
would induce pronounced lower-deck troffing from eastern MT to the
OK/TX panhandles. This would cause SE-S flow to quickly return to
the KS Neighborhood tomorrow morning. Despite the marked increase
in winds (to 20-30 mph across most of central & south-central KS)
by midday, the chilly start coupled with increasing low clouds
(especially across southeast KS) may put a crimp on highs which
may actually be a few degrees lower than this afternoon`s for some
areas. The increased moisture advection should be sufficient to
induce light rain across southeast KS Thu Night.

Fri-Sat Night:
As stated in the "Forecast Highlights" the Fri to Sat periods are
drawing the greatest attention. A much stronger mid-upper wave
that this afternoon is approaching the Pacific Northwest, will
strengthen as it moves E/SE across the Great Basin on Fri, then
across the Rockies late Fri Night. As the continually
strengthening, positively-tilted wave moves across the northern &
central plains late Fri Night & early Sat morning, it`ll kick a
strong cold front SE across the region late Fri Night & early Sat
morning. The S-SW winds occurring ahead of the front will send
temperatures soaring, especially across southern KS where highs in
the upper 70s to even the lower 80s are now likely with the hotter
temps across Harper and Kingman counties. Wichita`s record high
for the 17th is 78, so it`ll be "Warning Track" shot. Fri Night,
NW-N winds will of course surge across KS. The gradient is tight,
especially just off the deck. As such, winds have been increased
considerably above guidance. In fact, a Wind Advisory may be
issued for from late Fri Night-Sat Morning. The lift induced by
the upper-deck wave will be sufficient to squirt some light rain
across northern & far southeast KS very early Sat morning. Sat`s
highs should be 15-20F lower than Fri`s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Dry weather will dominate these periods as a broad upper-deck
ridge, though deamplifying, spread across the northern plains on
Sun. By Sunday Night, a strong zonal regime would dominate the
Great Plains Mon & Mon Night. By this time, the GFS & ECMWF
diverge considerably. The disagreement increases further toward
mid-week. Until these models can "settle their differences" will
keep these later periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
The gusty north winds will diminish this evening as a surface
high pressure ridge settles southeast across the area. The ridge
will retreat east of the area by Thursday morning, allowing a
return south wind to increase across central Kansas. Only SCT-BKN
thin cirrus is expected.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    36  58  51  77 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      33  58  48  78 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          34  58  49  73 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        35  58  51  74 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   36  59  52  76 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         33  60  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      32  60  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          33  59  48  74 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       32  58  48  76 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     35  61  52  75 /   0   0  30  20
Chanute         34  58  50  72 /   0   0  30  20
Iola            34  58  50  72 /   0   0  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    35  60  51  73 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.