Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 020937
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...
SUSTAINED BY LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL
INDICATE CONVECTION WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
...FUELED BY MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONTINUED MOIST INFLUX.
AS SUCH...BROADBRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND EXPANDED THOSE EAST
OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVERTOPS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TRAVERSES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AXIS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPERATURES...INTO THE
10C TO 14C RANGE BY 00 UTC. FORECASTING SOUNDINGS NOT TOO BULLISH
ON CAPPING INVERSION...SO CANNOT DISCOUNT ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...THOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY
WILL OCCUR FURTHER WEST ALONG PSEUDO WARM-FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH
FM NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...SUSTAINED BY MODEST LLJ AND THETAE
ADVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY...INCREASE CHANCES OF WIDELY SCATTERED
TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH IN THE COMING
DAYS...THOUGH UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHT WESTWARD BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. DECREASING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW ANY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...THEREFORE GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCE
OF POPS ACROSS BULK OF THE CWA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SUSTAINED
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY
RISE AT AND ABOVE NORMAL.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE SUPRESSED IN THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME AS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA DESCENDS INTO EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL DESCEND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GEFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL AS HEIGHTS DECREASE AND WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE WITH LOW-MID CEILINGS
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THIS COULD IMPACT KCNU...AND HAVE A VCTS
TOWARDS 12Z. CHANCES OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT
FOR TERMINALS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND BREEZY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SUNSETS AND DECREASING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  66  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      84  66  87  69 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          81  65  84  67 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        81  66  83  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  66  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         86  65  86  68 /  10  10  20  40
GREAT BEND      85  65  87  68 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          84  67  87  69 /  20  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       83  65  85  68 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     80  64  83  67 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         80  64  83  67 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            78  64  82  67 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    80  65  83  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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