Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 312018
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER NOTHERN MISSISSIPPI CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS RATHER LARGE...WHICH IS
NOTECABLE IN THE CLOUD FIELD.  THIS EXTENDS OVER KANSAS WITH A LARGE
NUMBER OF OPEN CELL CUMULUS SEEN ON THE VISIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.

THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A
LAYER OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN.  MOREOVER...FOG IN THE AREA OF
THE NOTED SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED.  THIS WILL BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE ARAS FROM
ABOUT SALINA SOUTHWEST THROUGH HUTCHINSON AND ANTHONY.  THE
FOG/STRATUS IS SHOWN WELL IN THE 12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT DATA.

NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.  A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS.

AS THIS IS OCCURRING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TAKES PLACE.  THIS
WILL CAUSE THE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE RIDGE AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IT
WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ADDITIONALLY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ALSO CAUSE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO INCREASE...LIMITING DAYTIME
CONVECTION.

ONE NOTE ABOUT THE FORECAST IS THAT IF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
NOT AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WE COULD GET INTO A NOCTURNAL
MCS TYPE PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORCED SYSTEMS
COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
 THIS WOULD BRING MORE RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA.  THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS POINTING AWAY FROM THAT POSSIBILITY RIGHT NOW.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RIDGE BUILDING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE LOWER CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG
WITH FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER ENERGY IS NOW ROTATING ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR LEVELS. WOULD EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-135. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME FOG. TO GET
THE BALL ROLLING WILL RUN WITH MVFR CLOUD AND FOG LEVELS BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THESE ARE LOWERED WITH LATER
SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
DEEPER. SOME ISO- SCT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WEST OF I-135 AS SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  77  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      55  77  59  84 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          53  75  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        54  75  57  81 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  60  83 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         55  77  59  82 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      56  78  60  82 /  20  20  20  10
SALINA          55  76  59  82 /  20  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  59  83 /  20  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  75  58  82 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         52  74  56  81 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            53  74  56  80 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    52  75  57  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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