Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 270439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TUE NIGHT--
THU...AND AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

THINKING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ARE SLIM.
HOWEVER...HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT
THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS BY
EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER
EAST-CENTRAL KS. THE COLD FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE
THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-IN-ALL...THINKING ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
IS ABLE TO FORM WILL STRUGGLE GIVEN ONLY MODEST
CONVERGENCE...MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.

POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRYING DEWPOINTS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM
INDICATES FAIRLY DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD FURTHER
SUPPORT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
STRONGLY SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS.
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S SEEM REASONABLE.
ADDITIONALLY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUE NIGHT--THU...ALONG EASTERN FRINGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS MAY KEEP WED-THU TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IS WANING...AND HAVE
DECREASED CHANCES AND REMOVED VCTS FROM THE TAF FORECAST. LATEST
RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING AND
CONVECTION WANES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COOL FRONT HAS
SLOWED AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE TAFS AS WELL. BY MORNING
EXPECT WINDS TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH MID-UPPER CLOUDS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  91  65  87 /  20  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      74  90  64  87 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          73  90  63  86 /  20  10   0   0
ELDORADO        74  90  63  86 /  20  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  93  65  87 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         70  88  63  86 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  89  63  86 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          73  90  63  87 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  90  63  86 /  20  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     75  93  64  86 /  20  10  10   0
CHANUTE         74  91  63  85 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            74  91  62  85 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  63  86 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.