Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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287
FXUS63 KICT 270435
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1135 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

A slow moving cold front bisecting central KS today will move
over the area tonight and during the morning hours on Thursday.
Low level southwest prefrontal flow will result in a deep dry
layer ahead of the front while the latest NAM indicates more cinh
within the mid level thermal ridge over much of south central and
southeast KS. This lowers confidence in storm coverage as the
front sinks south tonight with only isolated/widely scattered
coverage anticipated. We may still see some pockets of heavy rain
given slow storm motions within a high pwat airmass.

Precipitation will linger into the day on Thursday, especially
across southeast KS while more seasonable air overspreads the
forecast area in the wake of the front. Highs on Thu are expected
to range from the mid to upper 80s where clouds linger across
south central and portions of central KS to the low 90s in far
southeast KS.

Fri-Sat...a dry post-frontal regime is anticipated through the
period with light northeasterly winds and seasonably mild
temperatures. Highs both days are expected to be in the upper 80s
for most areas with lows falling into the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the central
Great Basin area during the extended periods. This will result in
north to northwesterly mid/upper flow across the Central Plains
states. We may see a shortwave trough or two emerge across the
area bringing an increasing chance for precipitation toward the
middle of the week but confidence in timing remains low at this
time. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the period with
highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop
across south-central and especially southeastern Kansas overnight,
given 850 mb moisture transport and mid-level isentropic ascent.
Will use TEMPO TSRA at the CNU terminal, and VCTS at ICT and HUT
for a few hours overnight. A cold front will continue to move
slowly southward across south-central Kansas overnight into
Thursday morning, clearing southeast Kansas around midday or in
the afternoon. South winds will shift to north-northeasterly
behind the frontal passage. Stratus should continue to fill in
behind the front in central and south-central Kansas overnight
into Thursday morning. The stratus should lift during the morning
and scatter out by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  87  70  89 /  30  20  10  10
Hutchinson      74  86  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
Newton          74  86  68  87 /  30  20  10   0
ElDorado        75  87  69  87 /  40  30  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   78  89  71  90 /  30  20  20  10
Russell         70  87  65  89 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      71  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          74  87  67  90 /  30  20   0   0
McPherson       73  86  66  88 /  30  20  10   0
Coffeyville     79  92  72  89 /  40  30  30  10
Chanute         78  91  71  87 /  50  30  30  10
Iola            77  89  70  87 /  50  30  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    79  91  72  88 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC



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