Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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309
FXUS63 KICT 100542
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1142 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Updated to increase cloud cover tonight and especially Sat and to
increase mins over se KS.

Short term models have been fairly consistent in lifting another
swath of low clouds north across the area Sat morning and leaving
them in place through at least mid afternoon. So went ahead and
increased cloud cover for mainly the 12-21z Sat time frame. With
low clouds sticking around se KS most of the night, lows may not
fall off as much as previously expected. So raised them a few
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

This Weekend:
The thermostat will get turned up considerably for as the inverted
surface ridge continues to be pushed east forming a secondary high
pressure center over the Ohio Valley, the Front Range surface
cyclone will strengthen further to produce stronger southerly flow
across central third of the CONUS. The afore-mentioned surface
cyclone is still scheduled to move east into KS and Western OK on
Sunday. Such behavior would produce a sharp moisture axis that`ll
be aligned from TX, thru Eastern OK, to along the KS/MO state line.
A relatively weak mid-level shortwave moving quite rapidly east
across the Northern and Central Plains will then push a cold front
SE that should extend from near the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the
Central Red River by Sun Evening. Areas of light rain and drizzle
will develop across Eastern KS and most of MO on Sun but will end
by Sun Evening as weak surface high pushes SE into KS Sun Night &
early Mon Morning.

Mon & Mon Night:
With a progressive pattern in place the surface high will scoot
east, crossing the Mississippi Valley around noon. This allow
southerly winds to quickly return to KS to produce one more day of
somewhat balmy weather.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Highlight: Another blast Arctic air set to invade the neighborhood.

Tue-Wed Night:
A vicious polar vortex will push eastsoutheast across Central
Canada on Tue and intensify further as it crosses Ontario Wed and
Wed Night. This would enable another shot of Arctic air to invade
the region. We will "chill out" the most Wed and Wed Night with
highs struggling to reach the mid 20s and lows from 10 to 15,
respectively. Wed may be especially nasty as Northerly 15 to 25
mph winds would certainly put a bite into us. Some post-frontal
light snow will spread across KS late Tue Night and Wed but little
accumulation should result.

Thu-Fri:
All will be quiet as strong high pressure dominates. If the ECMWF
verifies with a more dynamic pattern, i.e. a MUCH STRONGER Arctic
High centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley with a VERY INTENSE
cyclone over the Southern Rockies, Southern KS may see a thaw on
Fri where a more southerly lower-deck flow would reside.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Main aviation concern will be lower clouds through much of this
TAF period.

Ceilings in the 3,000-4,000ft range continue for areas southeast
of the KS Turnpike. The western edge of this area of clouds will
continue to slowly erode to the east with a good chance they may
never clear out of KCNU. Models remain consistent in lifting
another area of low clouds north across the area starting around
sunrise and persisting through the morning hours. This area will
then slowly lift northeast through the afternoon hours. Confidence
in what level the clouds come in at is very low. With low layers
staying fairly dry, will not run with any IFR at this time but
will introduce some MVFR at most sites. KRSL-KGBD-KHUT may see
some clearing by Sat afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    20  45  34  48 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      19  44  32  45 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          20  42  33  44 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        21  43  34  48 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   22  45  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         14  40  27  41 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      16  42  28  42 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          18  42  30  42 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       18  43  31  44 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     23  44  37  54 /   0   0  20  30
Chanute         23  43  34  50 /   0   0  10  30
Iola            22  42  32  49 /   0   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    23  43  36  53 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RBL
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL



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