Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 010806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. -JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. -RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT FOR MAINLY ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KCNU/KSLN. POSSIBLE THAT KHUT/KICT MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FORECAST. STILL
TOUGH CALL ON SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS
ON WHEN/WHERE/STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KCNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
LOCATION/TIMING FOR TAFS...WITH CURRENT THINKING BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KRSL CLOSE TO/AFTER 00Z...WITH KICT/KHUT
POTENTIALLY NEAR DRYLINE WITH BRUNT OF STORMS GOING TO THE EAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  20  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  20  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  30  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  30  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  30  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  40  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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