Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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631
FXUS63 KICT 302336
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Tonight-Friday:
Upper low will continue to drift east tonight. This will bring
clearing skies to at least western half of the area, but doubt
skies will clear in Southeast KS. Given light winds as ridge move
into area and copious soil moisture, think there is a good chance
for radiational fog later tonight where skies clear. Fog should
be thickest in far west, but not seeing typically indicators for
dense fog at this time. Evening and midnight shifts can monitor
and make appropriate adjustments. Fog will likely lead to
extensive morning clouds, but appears that at least the southern
half should mix/clear by midday, if not sooner. Northern sections
will be slower to clear, if at all given upslope flow.

Saturday-Sunday:
Clouds and chances for precipitation will be on the increase
Saturday. Still thinking GFS is too agressive with precipitation
on Saturday, and trimmed back onset/eastern extent early in the
day, with precipitation becoming increasingly likely by evening.
Wide range in temperatures across the forecast area, with
clouds and precipitation keeping far northwest near 50, while
mid 70s are forecast in far Southeast KS where abundant sunshine
is expected. Precipitation will gradually end from west to east
on Sunday for areas along/west of I-35, but will likely linger
through Sunday night in Southeast KS - when upper wave finally
kicks precipitation area to the east. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Rain finally exits far Southeast Kansas on Monday. Next upper
system moves through late Tuesday- Wednesday, but diffluent upper
flow and return low level flow could signal onset of
precipitation in the far west very early Tuesday. Precipitation
more likely later Tuesday before dry slot rotates around surface
low. Temperatures may be a bit cool Tuesday afternoon given good
downslope component. Wrap around clouds/light precipitation is
possible Tuesday night-Wednesday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Wrap around MVFR clouds from the departing upper level low in the
Great lakes, will lead to the wrn edge of the cloud deck
scattering out some for the evening hours. This will lead to a
brief period of scattered clouds for portion of Central KS and
South Central KS including the KRSL/KHUT/KGBD and KICT taf sites.
not expecting the breaks in the cloud cover to last long as low
level moisture remains high, with surface winds gradually shifting
to the northeast. As the winds shift to the E-NE, higher terrain
effects (upslope flow) across Central KS will lead to the stratus
clouds returning to most of the area late tonight, or early Fri
morning, with stratus build down leading to IFR and ever LIFR
cigs. The upslope flow will also lead to areas of fog developing
for areas west of I-135 with with vsbys dropping to MVFR with 2-5
miles possible.

Hi-res model solutions may be a bit optimistic in scattered out some
of the cloud cover across South Central KS for Fri afternoon, but
will go with this trend for now. but would not be surprised if cloud
cover stays around through Fri afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Periodic rounds of precipitation and increasing greenup will
result in limited fire threats this period. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  61  45  65 /   0   0  20  50
Hutchinson      38  59  44  60 /   0   0  40  60
Newton          38  58  43  61 /   0   0  20  50
ElDorado        40  59  44  66 /   0   0  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   39  63  47  71 /   0   0  20  40
Russell         36  55  41  50 /   0   0  70  80
Great Bend      36  56  42  51 /   0   0  70  80
Salina          39  56  43  56 /   0   0  40  60
McPherson       37  57  43  58 /   0   0  40  60
Coffeyville     41  64  46  75 /  10   0  10  10
Chanute         41  61  45  71 /  10   0  10  10
Iola            41  59  44  69 /  10   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    41  63  46  73 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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