Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241951
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A diffuse frontal boundary/sfc trough axis may provide a focus for
some afternoon and early evening storms across portions of central
and south central KS. Better chances may arrive later tonight as
storm activity drifts eastward along and north of the H85 frontal
zone over southwest KS where low lvl moisture transport/H85 flow of
30-35 knots is progged. A few strong storms with gusty winds will be
possible although a few pockets of locally heavy rain are also
anticipated given precipitable water values aoa 2 inches with warm
cloud depths in the 3500-4000 meter range.

Mon-Tue...The frontal zone becomes more diffuse on Monday with a
stable post-frontal regime anticipated across much of the area.
Maintained some morning pops weighted over southeast KS with some
lingering showers along the veering H85 flow anticipated. After a
brief lull...an isolated afternoon storm or two may redevelop within
a moist/weakly capped airmass and maintained low pops mainly across
southeast KS but the general theme Mon-Tue is a stable post-frontal
regime with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

Wed...As the subtropical ridge retrogrades over the Central Great
Basin area toward the middle of the week, northwest mid/upper flow
will develop downstream across the central Conus. This may help
steer more subtle shortwave troughs over the region and maintained
low pops on Wed/Wed night with a continuation of seasonable
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The medium range model consensus continues to support
unsettled weather conditions as we move through the latter portion
of the week. Uncertainty grows as we move into the weekend as the GFS
is more aggressive building the mid/upper ridge back into the
central Conus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A frontal zone extending from northeast KS to central and
southwest KS early this afternoon, will be slow to push southward
and may be along the KS/OK border by late Monday morning. Isolated
storms may develop along the front late this pm into early this
eve with strong heating and weak convergence. Other storms are
expected to develop over the high plains in upslope flow late
this pm/eve, and propagate eastward overnight while congealing
into clusters as they encounter richer moisture/instability. Best
chances for storms appears to be at HUT, ICT and CNU terminals
late tonight into Monday morning, with lesser chances near I-70 in
central KS. Southerly flow will become light northeasterly behind
the front as it sinks slowly south.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  92  72  92 /  50  20  20  20
Hutchinson      73  90  71  92 /  50  20  20  20
Newton          74  90  71  91 /  50  20  20  20
ElDorado        74  90  71  90 /  40  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   76  92  74  91 /  30  30  20  20
Russell         70  91  70  93 /  30  20  20  20
Great Bend      71  91  70  93 /  40  20  20  20
Salina          73  92  71  93 /  30  20  20  20
McPherson       72  90  70  92 /  50  20  20  20
Coffeyville     76  92  74  91 /  40  40  20  30
Chanute         75  90  73  90 /  40  40  20  20
Iola            75  90  72  90 /  40  40  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    76  91  73  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-
051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...JMC



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