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000
FXUS63 KICT 241745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TODAY-TNGT: TWO AREAS OF CONCERN EARLY TODAY. EXPECTING SOME EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER NW KS...TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SW KS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES...STAYING WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK PV-ANOMALY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NW KS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST
THIS CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS...AS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CEN
KS STAYS CAPPED DUE TO INCREASING WARM TEMPS ALOFT. SO WILL TRIM
BACK POPS DRAMATICALLY TODAY...ONLY KEEPING SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-135 IN CASE ANYTHING CAN DRIFT OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE MAIN THING FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE HUMID DAY AND WARMER TEMPS.

THE WARM MOIST ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET (LLJ) INCREASES ACROSS KS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW
THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING OVER CEN KS
INTO NE KS LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 FOR THIS CHANCE. EXPECT SOME SORT OF COMPLEX OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NE KS EARLY ON SAT....WHICH WILL MOVE EAST INTO SAT AM
AS LLJ VEERS TO THE EAST.

SAT-SUN: THE WARM TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE SFC WARM FRONT MOVES WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR AREAS
WEST OF I-135...WITH CEN KS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...WITH MID-UPR
80S FOR SOUTH CEN KS.

THINK SOME CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ON-GOING SAT MORNING FOR AREAS
NORTHEAST OF A KSLN-KCNU LINE...AS NAM/WRF SUGGESTS STORMS IN NE KS
COULD BACKBUILD SOME. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTION CHANCES FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS SRN KS FOR SAT...AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA
CAPPED...WITH LACK OF ANY STRONG IMPULSE IN THE MID LAYERS FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION. THE ONLY FOCUS WILL BE ANY OUTFLOW THAT NE KS
CONVECTION COULD PUSH SOUTH. SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND CONFINED TO
CEN KS. LATEST GFS SHOWS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL...WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS CEN KS OR NORTH OF
I-70.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK AS WELL. WITH THE MAIN LEE SIDE TROF REMAINING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MAIN
CONVECTION FOCUS WEST OF THE AREA. BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT...SO MORE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING TO COME TOGETHER ON THE SURFACE TROF
PUSHING CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MORE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SW US INTO THE PLAINS. SO
EXPECTING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO INCREASE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...AS BULK SHEAR/INSTABILITY INCREASES. COULD SEE A COUPLE
OF SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN A WARM MOIST
ADVECTIVE SCHEME. THINK MVFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS LOW. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SHOW SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND
MOVING NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MUCH TO GO ON WITH THAT
AND HAVE LEFT THE TAF FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. CAN AMEND IF NEED BE
AT A LATE TIME. DO SHOW SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA...LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD FOR ANY PATCHY
FOG WITH THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...BY MORNING GRADIENT WINDS AND MIXING WILL INDUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 KTS OR
HIGHER AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG OUR WESTERN
SITES...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  63  85  65 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      74  63  85  65 /  30  20  10  20
NEWTON          71  61  84  65 /  20  20  20  20
ELDORADO        73  62  83  65 /  20  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  63  84  66 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         75  62  89  65 /  30  30  20  30
GREAT BEND      75  62  87  65 /  40  20  10  30
SALINA          74  63  85  65 /  30  30  30  40
MCPHERSON       73  63  85  65 /  30  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     75  59  82  65 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         73  59  82  65 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            72  59  82  65 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    74  59  82  65 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$