Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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760
FXUS63 KICT 210001
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
601 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

This Evening:
Scattered showers & even a couple isolated thunderstorms developed
along a weak eastward-moving cold front that is venturing across
Southwest KS. This has prompted an update to assign "Scattered
Showers & Isolated Thunderstorms" to areas west of I-135 until 9PM.
The remainder of forecast is unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Water vapor imagery shows one impulse lifting over se ND with
another upper circulation lifting over west-central KS. Meanwhile,
stream of strong jet energy remains over southern CA. Messy
surface pattern with broad area of low pressure across the central
Plains with a weak low center over sw KS with another over far
eastern KS.

Will continue with some fog starting this evening over central KS
and will expand to cover all of south central KS later tonight.
This will be more of the radiational variety compared to the
stratus build down of last night. Confidence is high that we are
not looking at a widespread dense fog event like last night due
mainly to light west/sw winds which is not ideal for dense fog.

Next shortwave will move across the southern Rockies Sat and out
into the southern Plains Sat night. There is decent model
agreement that the surface low will track across OK with southern
KS in the wrap-around region of this fast moving system. Any
precip associated with this wave will fall as rain.

As far as temps go, well above normal readings are expected for
Sat with 60s possible for parts of southern KS. While a slight
cool-down will be on tap for Sun, temps will still be well above
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Pattern will remain progressive with another potent shortwave
forecast to move out into the Plains for Monday night into Tue
night. There is good model consensus that the surface low will
track along or just south of the KS-Nebraska border Tue. This
would place the best snow chances north of our forecast area,
mainly over Nebraska with far northern KS getting in on some of
the snow. So at this point not expecting much of an impact on
central or eastern KS as far as precipitation goes. Confidence is
high in a cooling trend behind this system, which is expected to
last through Fri. While we are not expecting any kind of arctic
outbreak, we will see below normal temps for the first time in a
while.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Sct -SHRA & perhaps even an isold TS will lurk acrs areas W of
I-135 this eve where a weak cdfnt is approaching. The other
problem is fog potential for late tngt-early Sat mrng. Winds are
lgt but wl shift to a WNW component which should inhibit
formation. Areas of MVFR cigs wl be encountered in Cntrl KS this
eve but should clear the Cntrl KS terminals by 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  59  38  53 /  20  10  20   0
Hutchinson      34  56  35  52 /  30  10  20   0
Newton          34  57  36  50 /  20   0  20   0
ElDorado        34  59  37  52 /  10   0  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  60  39  53 /  20  10  30  10
Russell         31  53  31  51 /  30  10   0   0
Great Bend      32  53  32  51 /  30  10  10   0
Salina          32  55  33  51 /  30   0  10   0
McPherson       34  55  34  51 /  30   0  10   0
Coffeyville     41  62  42  54 /   0   0  50  20
Chanute         38  60  39  52 /   0  10  30  10
Iola            38  60  39  51 /   0   0  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    40  61  41  53 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS



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