Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 032257
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
557 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

TONIGHT-SAT: THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING. EXPECT THE DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS WELL...AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EXTREME WRN
KS...WITH ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM CHANCES REMAINING WELL TO THE
NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RUN TOO COOL FOR MAX AND EVEN MIN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL KS...SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. POSSIBLY EVEN TWEAKING THOSE NUMBERS A LITTLE
WARMER STILL.

SUN: A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL
PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON SAT...AND LIFT E-NE ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST...THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
PLAINS WITH THE MID-UPPER PATTERN BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT.  AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...EXPECT THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN WRN KS TO MAKE
PROGRESS EAST INTO CENTRAL KS AND EVENTUALLY E-SE ACROSS THE
FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SUNDAY WILL STALL OR BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MON-EARLY WED. EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH
DAY...AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT INCREASES...AND
ANY WEAK IMPULSE IN THE ZONAL FLOW INCREASES LIFT AND MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PUSH SOUTH TO ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR
WED NIGHT/THU. THIS SO WILL DRY OUT MUCH OF CENTRAL KS AS THIS
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH DIURNAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TERMINAL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  95  74  94 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  96  74  95 /  10   0  10   0
NEWTON          71  94  73  94 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        71  92  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  93  74  93 /   0  10   0  10
RUSSELL         74  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      74  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          74  95  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       72  95  74  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  90 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         70  88  72  89 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            70  88  72  89 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  73  90 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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