Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250855
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
355 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

An extremely high amplitude pattern continues to cover the CONUS
with STRONG high pressure covering roughly the southeastern third
of the country while a DEEP upper-deck trof continues to dig due S
from the Northern Rockies to Baja CA. Furthermore, Maria, although
rated Category 1, continues to churn ~200 miles off the SC Coast.
The strong upper high anchored over the Eastern U.S. continues to
cause an atmospheric "traffic jam" which would prevent the Western
U.S. upper trof from making much, if any, eastward progress. The
"initial" upper-deck low that is attempting to develop generally
over WY will get forced NE by the afore-mentioned upper-high. As
such the widespread showers & isolated/scattered thunderstorms
occurring from Central & Eastern Nebraska across Western KS to the
OK/TX Panhandles will make slow progress east across KICT Country.
Instability is greatly lacking, but the training along the SLOW,
SE-moving but strong cold front would result in copious rainfalls
across most of KS, especially Central & South-Central KS through
Tue Morning. With the initial mid-upper low filling as it lifts NE
across the far Northern Plains Tue afternoon & evening the faucet
should get turned down from Tue afternoon thru Wed Night with most
rainfall confined to Southern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The rest of the week should be predominantly dry as large high
pressure spreads SE into the Great Plains. The next chance for
rain & possibly thunderstorms shouldn`t arrive until perhaps Sat
Night when the next mid-upper shortwave (which is quite robust)
is scheduled to cross the Northern Rockies Sat afternoon then into
the Northern & Central Plains Sat Night & Sun. Don`t be surprised
if PoPs are increased for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A slow moving cold front will slide east across central Kansas
late tonight into Monday. MVFR cigs/vsbys and scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected along and behind the
front. South winds and VFR conditions will continue ahead of the
front tonight through Monday afternoon across south central and
southeast Kansas with isolated to widely scattered convection
possible. The front is expected to move across south central
Kansas on Monday evening.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  60  69  57 /  60  80  70  40
Hutchinson      77  56  68  54 /  80  80  60  30
Newton          80  57  67  54 /  70  80  70  30
ElDorado        83  62  69  56 /  50  70  70  40
Winfield-KWLD   84  63  71  57 /  50  70  70  50
Russell         66  51  66  50 /  90  90  20  10
Great Bend      69  52  66  50 / 100  90  30  20
Salina          76  56  67  53 /  90  90  50  20
McPherson       77  55  67  53 /  80  90  60  20
Coffeyville     87  67  79  60 /  20  20  50  50
Chanute         86  66  76  59 /  20  40  60  40
Iola            85  66  75  58 /  20  40  60  40
Parsons-KPPF    87  67  78  61 /  20  30  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED



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