Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260436
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND HEAT THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...AND A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL KS
ALONG A NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN REACHED...BUT CONVERGENCE IS FAIRLY WEAK...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS NIL AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM...SO COVERAGE SHOULD
BE QUITE ISOLATED. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT
BEST...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD ROLL EAST INTO WESTERN KS...BUT THINKING
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL KS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY DRIVES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FEEL THE NAM MODEL IS OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRIVES IT TOO FAR SOUTH...SO STUCK WITH A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THAT SAID...FEEL THE MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO IS
ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY
GETTING INTO SOUTHERN KS LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IF ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP A DECENT COLD POOL. HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING
AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY TEND TO KEEP ACTIVITY ON THE
SPARSE SIDE. ALL-IN-ALL...ANYTHING THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS...DIME SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. MAY SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH INTO OK.

ANOTHER HOT DAY ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING/BREACHING THE CENTURY MARK MANY AREAS...ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MIX OUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WHICH SHOULD TEMPER MAX HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER...DEEMED IT
PRUDENT TO STILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE
RANGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY DRIER LOW-LEVELS ARE
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
HIGHS ARE STILL IN THE 90S.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALL MODELS CONTINUE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SURROUNDING A RETURN TO
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S ARE A GOOD BET...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH EASTERN
FRINGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU. IF THIS
OCCURS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP DAYTIME READINGS IN THE
70S WED-THU. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KS THIS EVE APPEARS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK
VORT AND MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT
RSL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS TROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS
LATE SATURDAY PM/EVE. THIS COULD SET OFF ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS BY EARLY SAT EVE. OTHERWISE
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 102  76  94 /   0  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      77 102  74  92 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          76 100  74  92 /   0  20  20  10
ELDORADO        76 100  74  93 /   0  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76 102  76  95 /   0  10  20  20
RUSSELL         75 101  72  91 /  20  20  20   0
GREAT BEND      76 101  72  91 /  20  20  20  10
SALINA          78 101  74  92 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       77 101  74  92 /  10  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  98  76  95 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         75  98  75  94 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            75  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    74  98  76  95 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$






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