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000
FXUS63 KICT 210758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS TODAY NEAR STALLED 850 FRONT...ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE 850 FRONT OUT OF
SOUTHEAST KS...LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH THE TRAILING END
OF THE FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE 850
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING INTO MAINLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF WAS FLATTER WITH THE
PLAINS RIDGE AND ALLOWS A FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY CLOSER TO THE GFS
DURING THE PERIOD. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW RICH
GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK IMPULSES
TOPPING THE PLAINS RIDGE...AND WITH THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE TO OUR
WEST...WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE WEEKEND.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER WHICH HAS PROMPTED VCTS TO REMAIN IN THE
TAF FOR KCNU UNTIL 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS MEANDERING IN TONIGHT.
OVERALL A VERY QUIET TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHWEST AND HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW SITES TO INDICATE THIS TRANSITION.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.

VP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  53  77  55 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75  51  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          74  51  76  52 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        75  52  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  53  79  56 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         73  48  75  50 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      73  49  76  51 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          74  51  76  51 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       74  51  76  52 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  54  79  56 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         75  53  77  55 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            76  53  76  54 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  53  78  56 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$