Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202315
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TONIGHT-MONDAY...GREATEST WEATHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH REGARD
TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL FOR CENTRAL KANSAS IN LATE JULY.  LITTLE
APPRECIABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...DEEP MIXING AND SUSTAINED LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H8 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S TO DEVELOP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE IN
MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN WITH MIXING...WHICH WILL PUSH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S.  GREATEST PROBABILITY
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...THUS HAVE HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT FLATTENING OF UPPER RIDGE...AS SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...HOWEVER LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
CAPPING DO NOT BODE WELL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKS SLIM...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS WESTERN CWA WHERE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC FORCING MAY SPARK
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE
IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC AND DYNAMIC
FORCING MAY ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FORM ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
INTO NE KANSAS AND BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLINT HILLS AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY...BUT PROBABILITIES VERY LOW.

TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS KANSAS. SIMILAR LOW
LEVEL THERMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT POSITION OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF MIXING...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEAT
ADVISORY. BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...SO BROAD-BRUSHED SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SF

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
NUDGE TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS.  BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND
EFFECTIVELY RETROGRADES UPPER H5 RIDGE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER LIKELY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONGER SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOME SORT
OF MESOSCALE COMPLEX THAT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF CWA. SHORT WAVE
ALSO WILL HELP DEEPEN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND ALLOW COOLER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING GUSTY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      71  99  74 101 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  96  73  98 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  95  73  98 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         72 102  75 101 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      71 101  74 100 /   0   0  20  10
SALINA          72 102  76 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       71  99  74 101 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  93  72  97 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         67  94  73  97 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            67  94  73  97 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  93  72  97 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>051.

&&

$$






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