Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 112025
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
225 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Headline:
Fire Weather Watch being upgraded to Red Flag Warning with the Red
Flag Warning in effect from 11AM-7PM. Red Flag Warning includes
Allen, Neosho & Labette Counties.

Today:
Per "Headline" am hoisting the Red Flags for all of the CWA from
11AM-7PM. For details refer to the "Fire Weather" section at end
of this discussion.

A compact upper-deck shortwave is situated from Minnesota to along
the North Dakota/South Dakota border. The shortwave strengthens as
it sprints S/SE & should reach from Illinois to Missouri late this
afternoon. The shortwave will kick a weak surface trough, that
extends along the Kansas/Missouri border, across Missouri, Eastern
Oklahoma & Arkansas this afternoon. The surface trough strengthens
as it surges SE, the NW gradient in its wake will be strong. The
NW regime remains very dry & deep & would cause winds to reach
Advisory criteria across primarily Central & South-Central Kansas
this afternoon. The Wind Advisory won`t be issued as the Red Flag
Warning will discuss the strong winds.

Tonight-Wed Night:
All of the Great Plains will remain under a very strong NW regime
throughout these periods with a deepening upper-deck trough
situated over the eastern U.S. while a strong mid-upper ridge
remains parked out west. With the eastern U.S. trough undergoing
pronounced cyclogenesis the ridge may get forced slightly west to
the Pacific coast. Translation: Dry weather with above normal
highs temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Upper-deck waves will sprint SE in an assembly line manner across
the Great Plains but with moisture lacking dry weather continues.
The downstairs gradient isn`t as strong & would therefore keep the
grassland fire danger in check.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 224 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Main concern is very gusty winds this afternoon. Winds should
gradually diminish this evening intially with less mixing and then
later as pressure gradient relaxes. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Markedly increasing NW winds, likely sustained from 25 to 35 mph
with gusts 40 to 45 mph gusts, will continue to spread very dry
air across Kansas this afternoon. This would produce an Extreme
Grassland Fire Danger in most areas, most certainly in Central &
South-Central Kansas. To `air` on side of caution, and per
collaboration with Springfield & Tulsa, have hoisted the Red Flags
for Allen, Neosho & Labette counties as well with the Red Flag
warning in effect from 11AM-7PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  51  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      28  51  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          28  49  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        29  48  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   29  50  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         25  54  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      25  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          27  51  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       26  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     28  47  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         27  45  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            26  45  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    27  46  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...EPS



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