Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 211948
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS: STRONG WINDS/FIRE DANGER/SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY PM/EVE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING WIDELY SEPARATED
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
KS COUNTIES PRIOR TO 02Z. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN STATES. THE MAIN CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DRAWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GIVEN IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW IS PROGGED OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE WED PM WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
MERGE. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE WED
AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT MAX CONVERGENCE AREA...WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE WED NIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A BROKEN-SOLID LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KS...WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS TOWARD
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. STORM SEVERITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD/AFTER 06Z
WED NIGHT AS MUCAPES DIMINISH.

MODELS AGREE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY 18Z
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING STORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST KS ENDING.
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER A STRONGER CLOSED LOW
SOLUTION BY SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH. BOTH MODELS HAVE SUPPORT FROM THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FORECAST
DETAILS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST RICH GULF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS...WHICH WILL BE SET AT 40-50% THIS FAR OUT
AND ADJUSTABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY...TAPERING BACK TO AROUND
AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW WORKS ACROSS THE REGION.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS OF
1740Z...IT HAD GONE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KCNU. WINDS ARE RATHER VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH CIGS
BKN020. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT OVER THE COURSE
OF A FEW HOURS AT KCNU...VEERING WINDS FROM 190 TO 350 OR SO BY
00Z.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE
WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THERE WILL
BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE PREVAILING 02015KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE SHOULD EASE BY 02Z. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY AND BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

COOK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH IN CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IN CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 14. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25-30% ARE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTING
TO 45 MPH. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES LOOK
PROBABLE IN THOSE AREAS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
40-45% ARE PROGGED.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  76  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      46  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          46  74  53  78 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        47  75  53  79 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  76  53  81 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         43  76  55  81 /   0  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      45  77  55  82 /   0  10  10  40
SALINA          44  75  53  80 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  76  54  80 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     49  74  48  79 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         47  72  48  78 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            47  71  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  74  48  78 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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