Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 281753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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