Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 232355
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TONIGHT:
MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS DURING THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND ADVISORY
THROUGH 0300 UTC AND EXPAND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST.
WINDS ARE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL LET EVENING
SHIFT MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL. BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED IN THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM EVAPORATION...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
MODEST RECOVERY IN ITS WAKE. WINDS/CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
MINIMUMS UP JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT.

MON-WED:
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES
MORE CHALLENGING THAN NORMAL. LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ON
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN TUE AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDING ON THAT
TIMING/AMOUNT OF CLOUDS GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLE. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS.
BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON SURFACE FEATURES HAS BEEN LACKING.
VERY COLD AIRMASS LURKING TO THE NORTH COULD SPELL TROUBLE WITH
VERIFICATION. EXACT STRENGTH/DIRECTION OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND/OR
STRENGTH OF RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE COLD AIR SETTLES. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY DICTATES
STICKING WITH INITIALIZATION/CONSENSUS GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND
KEEPING DRY FORECAST GOING. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE REGION WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WINDS ARE GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION REGION BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON THE
BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
RISING AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY 06Z AT KCNU WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS
ALREADY ABOVE VFR OR WILL BE SHORTLY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  50  25  49 /  20   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  48  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          29  45  24  48 /  30   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  47  27  48 /  60   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  52  27  50 /  60   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  48  22  50 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  48  24  50 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          30  47  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  47  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  52  27  49 /  70  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  48  25  47 /  70  10   0   0
IOLA            31  46  25  47 /  70  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  49  24  49 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049>052-067-068-
082.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ053-069-070-083-
091>094-098.

&&

$$



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