Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271754
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS OVER SE KS AND POP TRENDS.

STORMS CONTINUE OVER SE KS THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER. THEY HAVE BEEN GOING
THROUGH A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. WITH RAIN AND
CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED
HIGHS TODAY IN SE KS. ALSO GETTING STRONGER WINDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME...WHICH MAYBE THE RESULT OF A WAKE LOW
SCENARIO.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED-SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...WHERE WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (310K) IS
INDICATED. MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
25-45 KT COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH A
HAIL THREAT. ANY STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD WANE TOWARD
MID-LATE MORNING...AS THE WEAK LLJ WEAKENS/BACKS.

A WELL-ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AS SURFACE-
BASED INHIBITION IS REMOVED FROM HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CONVECTION MAY MERGE INTO
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS TONIGHT...AS A 45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A RELATIVELY GREATER STORM COVERAGE
AND HIGHER RAINFALL FORECAST (0.25-0.75 INCH) IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A FEW STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING
WITH HAIL/WIND THREATS.

A SECONDARY VORT LOBE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH WEAKENED
INHIBITION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK-MODERATE SHEAR...ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAKER THAN DAY 1.

A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...AND FRONT WHICH MAY HANG UP JUST SOUTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FORECAST 1000-850 THICKNESSES ON THE GFS/NAM-WRF/RAP INDICATE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH LEANED WITH THE MIDDLE OF ROAD
GFS BASED ON IT`S VERIFICATION YESTERDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL SEASONABLY WARM.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A MID-
LEVEL WEAKNESS/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IN OUR AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

STORMS CONTINUE OVER SE KS THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER WITH THIS BAROCLINC ZONE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY COME TO AN END AS THE EVENING HOURS
APPROACH WITH THE MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL. ATTENTION WILL THEN
TURN TO OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN
KS/NEBRASKA AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LOW
WITH MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WHILE
WE ARE CONFIDENT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL
KS...NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE. SO WILL MAINLY JUST
RUN WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  71  88  66 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      94  69  88  64 /  10  40  20  10
NEWTON          92  71  88  65 /  10  40  20  10
ELDORADO        91  70  89  66 /  10  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  71  89  67 /  10  20  30  20
RUSSELL         96  66  87  61 /  30  70  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  66  88  61 /  30  60  10  10
SALINA          94  70  87  62 /  10  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  87  64 /  10  50  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     85  70  87  67 /  90  10  40  30
CHANUTE         84  68  87  66 /  80  10  40  30
IOLA            85  68  86  66 /  80  10  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  69  87  67 /  80  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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