Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN IMMEDIATELY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED...HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
PROGGED ONCE AGAIN. ELEVATED PARCELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAKLY
CAPPED WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
06Z ON TUE. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THIS WARMING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE COLUMN
INCREASING CINH AND INHIBITING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER CAPPING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW POPS WERE
MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LARGE SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS THIS MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND HAS LED TO PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THE BULK
OF THE NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING CLOUDS STARTING TO
ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AS DRY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS
TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION.  MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY
FOG AS CLOUD CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DUE
TO EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING.  IN GENERAL...DO NOT EXPECT
VSBYS TO FALL BELOW MVFR CATEGORY...HOWEVER LOW LYING SPOTS COULD
SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR VSBYS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL HELP FURTHER ERODE AND DISSIPATE CLOUDS AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE INCREASES. PERIOD OF CLEAR OR MOST CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K
LAYER INCREASES AFT 00UTC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND MID-RANGE VFR CIGS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
IN THE 06-09 UTC TIME PERIOD...AS WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN PART OF CWA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  55  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75  54  77  59 /   0  10  20  10
NEWTON          73  53  75  58 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        72  53  75  57 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  55  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         76  55  77  59 /   0  30  20  20
GREAT BEND      76  55  78  60 /   0  20  20  20
SALINA          75  54  76  59 /   0  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       74  53  76  59 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  54  75  58 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         69  53  74  56 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            68  53  74  56 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  52  75  57 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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