Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
000
FXUS63 KICT 151102
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
602 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Outside of some drizzle early this morning, dry conditions are
anticipated through at least Wed.
- Temps are expected to generally be near or slightly above
normal through the next several days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Water vapor imagery currently shows a closed off upper low
situated over Southern CA with some additional shortwave energy
extending across the Great Lakes. At the surface, cold front
extends from Southern MO into Central TX.
Some drizzle developed over the last few hours across northeast
into central KS in response to some weak isentropic lift along
the 290k surface. Area of drizzle will continue to drift off to
the southwest this morning. Surface high, currently centered
over Western Nebraska/Eastern WY, will continue to sink south
and will be situated across western KS by this afternoon. By
this evening there is good model agreement in shortwave energy
moving out of southern Manitoba and into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Western Great Lakes and will continue digging into the
Mid Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Sat. This will pull
down some unseasonably cold air for Sunday, but the really cold
readings are expected to stay northeast of the forecast area. So
after above normal temps on Sat, they will return closer to
seasonal normals for Sun.
By Mon, shortwave trough will be moving into the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley with northwest flow setting up over the Plains.
Meanwhile, what is left of the western CONUS upper low will be
tracking across the Desert Southwest. Confidence is high that
above normal highs will be in place area wide on Tue with most
locations in the 70s. Warmer temps look to continue through the
end of the work week. Will continue the theme of increasing
precip chances Wed night through Thu night as the upper energy
finally lifts out of the Desert Southwest.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Steady improvement from MVFR to VFR expected by late morning
as drier low level air advects across the area on the northerly
flow. Winds will remain a bit gusty thru midday before
diminishing this afternoon. A general increase in mid and
higher levels clouds can be expected tonight with light winds.
KED
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side
through the weekend and into the start of the work week.
Northeast winds in the 10-20 mph range are expected today and
will be light out of the west on Sat. Near normal temps will
keep RH values in check through the next several days which will
also keep the fire danger on the low side.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...OTR