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000
FXUS63 KICT 192359
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A COLD FRONT BISECTING KS FROM
NORTH-SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NE.
THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK...WHICH THEN TRAILS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OK. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...OWING
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A 70-90KT JET MAX
IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS...A STOUT CAP IS LIKELY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ACTING TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THIS CAP SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BREACHED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...AS ALL THESE FEATURES CONVERGE AMIDST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR
LIKELY...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THINKING THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...WHEN
BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES. AN ISOLATED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MON AFTERNOON-NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...AS THE FRONT STALLS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVE...COULD SEE MODEST/STEEP RISES ON FAR SOUTHEAST KS
RIVERS/STREAMS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING...SO
A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE PONDERED BY LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY
IF AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURS TONIGHT. WHILE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
LOWER...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL STILL PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES...ENDING STORM
CHANCES.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
MID-AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...COULD BE LOOKING AT PERIODIC BOUTS OF LATE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW DUE TO
MARGINAL MID/UPPER FLOW...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A
THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TRANSIENT MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY REMAINS FURTHER EAST
EMBEDDED ALONG A LINE OVER THE FLINT HILLS AREA. THIS LINE WILL
IMPACT KCNU THROUGH AFTER 01Z AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 04-05Z
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  56  77 /  40  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      58  80  55  76 /  30  20  10  10
NEWTON          58  81  55  76 /  40  20  10  10
ELDORADO        61  82  56  77 /  60  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  84  58  78 /  60  30  40  10
RUSSELL         53  78  51  73 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  78  52  74 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          55  79  54  75 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       56  80  54  76 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  82  65  79 /  80  60  80  50
CHANUTE         66  82  62  78 /  80  60  70  30
IOLA            66  82  62  78 /  80  50  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  82  63  78 /  80  60  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$