Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 261137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY BEFORE ARRIVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP WILL PRECLUDE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST
MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST CHANCES
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATE TUE POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH...AND SOUTHERLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN CENTRAL KS BY THIS
EVE. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS TSRA CHANCE WILL GET...SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE THIS IN THE KICT AND KCNU TAFS JUST YET. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   104  75  92  66 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON     105  74  90  65 /  10  20  10   0
NEWTON         104  75  90  65 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO       101  75  91  64 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD  101  76  93  66 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL        103  71  89  66 /  20  20   0   0
GREAT BEND     102  72  89  65 /  20  20  10   0
SALINA         105  73  90  64 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON      104  74  90  64 /  20  20  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     98  75  93  65 /  10  20  20   0
CHANUTE         97  75  92  64 /  10  20  20   0
IOLA            98  75  91  64 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  75  93  65 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$






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