Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 300449
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VIA THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE
FIRST WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECENT
MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE STORMS COULD RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND WOULD EXPECTED AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS BUT RATHER MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT THIS JUNCTURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH A
WARM UP EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      64  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          66  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        65  96  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  99  76 100 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         64 101  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      65 100  74  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          65 102  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         65  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            65  94  73  95 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    65  94  74  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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