Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 162354
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
554 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a couple different impulses, one passing
over northern Baja with another one diving southeast over the
northern Intermountain. At the surface, cold front that blew
through last night is now situated from northern LA into south TX.

Southern stream impulse will continue quickly tracking east
and will pass over OK late tonight. This feature is expected to
spread precipitation across eastern OK and far southeast KS late
tonight. May see a brief period of rain/snow mix but with temps
hovering at or just above freezing, not expecting much in the way
of accumulating ice. Downslope will kick-in by early Sat afternoon
as shortwave continues to slide east. This will allow for great
mixing and a quick return to above normal temps. Good model
agreement that our next shortwave will dig over the Pacific
Northwest/northern CA for Sun. This will allow surface low to
deepen over eastern CO/western KS and will also increase south
winds. Main concern for both Sat and Sun will be fire weather
issues. See fire weather section below for additional details.

As shortwave progresses east, low level theta-e advection will
increase from the Arklatex region into the mid Mississippi Valley
for Mon into Mon night with some of this rainfall possibly
affecting southeast KS. Not out of the question, some heavy
rainfall maybe possible for far southeast KS Mon night into Tue
but confidence is low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

By Wed the best low level moisture advection will be shunted to
the southeast leaving dry conditions for Wed and Thu. Pattern is
expected to remain very active as another shortwave is expected
to dig over the Great Basin for Thu into Thu night. This will
rapidly increase low level moisture across the southern Plains
with some precip possibly affecting southern/southeast KS Thu
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Light and variable winds will gradually increase from the south
tonight while veering to the west and northwest during the day on
Saturday becoming breezy at times with gusts in the 20-30 knot
range. We may see a period of light precipitation across far
southeast KS while some transient MVFR cigs impact portions of
south central and southeast KS. VFR will rapidly return early on
Sat with clearing anticipated through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Fire danger concerns will be elevated for both Sat and Sun across
the entire region.

Winds are expected to flip around to the west and northwest by
early Sat afternoon with gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible.
Meanwhile, RH values by late Sat afternoon will range from around
20% for areas west of I-135 to around 30% over far se KS. These
conditions will result in very high fire danger for most of the
area.

For Sunday, winds are expected to flip around to the south by the
afternoon hours with gusts in the 30-40 mph range a good bet.
Lowest afternoon RH values are expected to range from around 25%
west of I-135 to 45% over se KS. This will result in widespread
very high grassland fire danger. Outdoor burning is not
recommended for both Sat and Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    31  60  35  65 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      30  59  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          31  58  34  64 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        32  59  35  63 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   33  61  36  64 /  20  10   0   0
Russell         27  58  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      28  59  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          30  57  34  67 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       31  58  34  66 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     35  59  33  63 /  60  40   0  10
Chanute         32  58  32  61 /  30  30   0   0
Iola            32  57  32  61 /  30  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    34  58  33  63 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM


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