Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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541
FXUS63 KICT 122352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY IN OUR
AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN KS. STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COLD START...AND ONLY A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE POLAR AIRMASS.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 925-800
MB FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (285-295K LAYER) WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IN THIS REGION...AND IF ENOUGH
SATURATION OCCURS (SURFACE TO 800 MB)...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DRYER AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST...BEHIND THE MAIN STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TRAILING
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS IT COMES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THIS WAVE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN COMING
MORE WEST TO EAST OFF OF THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
LEE TROUGHING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES...WITH 850 TEMPS OF 15-22 DEG CELSIUS OVER OUR
AREA...COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE GIVEN THE PROJECTED...MARGINAL GULF
RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS ALTHOUGH
THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A TRANSIENT PERIOD
OF LIGHT FZDZ MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS EARLY IN
THE MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
CENTRAL KS TAFS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE IN THE 15-17 KNOT RANGE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW-MODERATE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH
THURSDAY THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN DUE TO NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    18  37  30  55 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      17  37  28  55 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          16  35  28  53 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        17  36  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   19  38  33  54 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         17  36  26  52 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      18  37  27  54 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          16  35  26  51 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       17  36  27  53 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     16  38  30  48 /   0   0  10  30
CHANUTE         15  35  27  47 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            13  33  26  46 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    16  37  29  48 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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