Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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800
FXUS63 KICT 092057
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
257 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

The pattern of dry weather that has been dominating the area over
the past few days will continue well into next week.

A large mid/upper level trough is currently situated over the
eastern half of the CONUS, while an impressive mid/upper level ridge
sits over much of the western CONUS including Nevada and California.
This setup, which allows for a northwesterly flow regime to dominate
the Central U.S., is expected to continue over the next several
days. High temps this afternoon will be a little warmer than
yesterday as we continue a gradual warming trend. Light downslope
flow and low moisture content in the atmosphere will allow for mild
temperatures through the remainder of the weekend and into the
beginning of the work week, with highs in the 60s expected across
much of the CWA on Sunday and only slightly cooler highs on Monday.

During the day on Monday, a clipper system will quickly make its way
from the Northern Plains, through the middle Mississippi Valley, and
settle into the Ohio Valley by Monday night before heading off to
the Northeast early Tuesday. This system will lower 1000mb-500mb
thickness values across our CWA, bringing temperatures down a bit
overnight Monday night and into Tuesday. Expected highs will be
roughly 10 degrees cooler on Tuesday than Monday, though still
above average for the time of year. In addition to the cool down,
the system will also tighten the pressure gradient quite a bit
across the area which will increase wind speeds considerably on
Monday, particularly in Central Kansas where sustained speeds
around 25mph and gusts near 35mph will be possible. These
elevated wind speeds combined with the warm temperatures and dry
air could produce some fire weather concerns on Monday (see Fire
Weather discussion below).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

In the long term, the northwesterly flow regime should remain in
tact, resulting in a quiet weather pattern across the area through
the end of next week. Wednesday will be slightly warmer but
another clipper system is expected to make its way south across
the northeast corner of Kansas on Wednesday, which should cool
temperatures back down into the 50s for Thursday. Another very
gradual warm trend is likely Thursday through Saturday as
mid/upper level flow becomes more zonal towards the end of the
extended period. It looks like the above normal temps will stick
around for at least what remains of the first half of December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Winds will gradually shift to the southwest later today, then back
to the northwest around daybreak Sunday. Increasing mixing will
result in increasing winds late Sunday morning. -Howerton


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Mild temperatures, low RH, gusty winds, and cured terrain will
result in very high grassland fire danger across the entire CWA on
Monday afternoon. Despite very high GFDI across the area, the
highest danger will likely be in central Kansas, where the GFDI
could flirt with the extreme category (and thus red flag
criteria). Regardless if criteria are met or not, it is advised to
avoid any outdoor burning on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    28  62  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      27  64  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          25  60  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        25  60  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   26  62  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         27  67  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      27  67  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          28  63  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       26  62  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     24  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         26  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            26  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    25  59  31  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...TAV



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