Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 021727
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE CHANCES
THRU EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL RESULT
IN SOME PATCHY DENSE CIRRUS TO START THE DAY...THOUGH MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH MAXS A TAD WARMER THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE FORENOON ON WEAK
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE MODEST/WANING LOW LEVEL
JET THIS MORNING...WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO THE FLINT HILLS JUST
EAST OF GREATER WICHITA. OTHERWISE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO KANSAS...AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON FLOW/WESTERN CONUS
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. PLAN
TO MAINTAIN AND TRANSITION MODEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
FLOW REGIME BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN EASTERN CONUS TROF
ALLOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER PLAINS. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE ON HOW WE GET THERE FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIODS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
IN THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SO FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH REGARD TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINAL SITES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF JET THAT IS DIVING ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. DIABATIC EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF
DIURNALLY BASED FEW- SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES FROM 5-7K.

H5 RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD EAST BACK INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME LOW-MID MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOTED WITH MODEST
LIFT 305K...SO PERHAPS A VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLD...ELEVATED
CONVECTION FOR WESTERN TAF SITES DURING THE LAST PERIOD OF
TAFS...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING WILL FORM IS LOW AND WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF TSRA OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  72  95  72 /  10  10  10  30
HUTCHINSON      95  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  40
NEWTON          93  71  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        94  70  94  71 /  20  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  30
RUSSELL         97  70  95  69 /  10  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      96  70  94  69 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          97  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       96  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     95  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         95  70  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            94  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  69  95  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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