Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250850
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
350 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Numerous thunderstorms containing torrential rains continue across
Butler, Cowley & Elk Counties at 230 AM where Flood & Flash Flood
Warnings are in effect. Thunderstorms are being sustained by strong
lower-deck theta-e advection enhanced by lift induced by mid-level
shortwave sprinting NE across SE KS. Hourly rainfalls are in the 1
to 3 inch range in extreme Ern Sumner & NW Cowley Counties. The
cloud-to-ground lightning continues to be frequent & dangerous.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Forecast Highlight:
More severe thunderstorms possible for SE KS this afternoon & this
evening.

Significant threat for severe thunderstorms with large-very large
hail, winds around 70 mph & tornadoes continues for areas primarily
along & W of I35-I/135 Thu Afternoon & Night.

Today & Tonight:
With the afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave continuing to sprint
NE across the Mid & Upr MS Valley thunderstorms would be greatest
across SE KS where aligned with broad ultra-high octane moisture
axis. Deep-layer shear, more so directional, remains impressive &
with very high instability there`s a continued threat for severe
thunderstorms for SE KS both this afternoon & tonight.

Thu & Thu Night:
The greatest threat for significant severe thunderstorms is still
expected for areas along, and W, of I-35/I-135. A deep upper-deck
trof that`ll push slowly E across AZ & NM will undergo cyclogenesis
as it lifts SLOWLY NE to NE NM, the TX & OK Panhandles & the CO/KS
border. This would induce increased deep-layer ascent over the Wrn
Plains that would transition E toward Central KS. The slow NE lift
of the upper low would of course induce pronounced sfc cyclogenesis
over SE CO & Wrn KS on Thu. This would strengthen the lower-mid
level moist advection across KS with the most pronounced advection
targeting Central parts of OK & KS. This time deep-layer speed
shear would be strong & coupled with respectable directional shear
supercells would once erupt over these areas & move NE. The
supercells should arrive areas along & W of I-35/I-135 late Thu
Afternoon & continue thru the night. SPC has expanded the "Enhanced
Risk" N as far as Srn Nebraska. As such "Severe Thunderstorms With
Large Hail And Damaging Winds" have been assigned to the afore-
mentioned areas.

Fri & Fri Night:
The threat for severe thunderstorms is beginning to increase Fri
Afternoon & Evening. The greatest severe threat would shift slowly
E. For now SPC has assigned "Slight Risk" to E TX & SE OK, but
wouldn`t be surprised if the "Slight Risk" assignment is eventually
spread N across Central & Ern KS. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For Sat & Sat Night the GFS & ECMWF continue to agree quite well
with overall pattern, although the ECMWF is bit stronger with the
departing upper-deck shortwave, scheduled to reach the Upper MS
Valley Sat Night. A 2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E &
like it`s predecessor it`ll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs
across Srn CA. A "lead" shortwave will eject NE, likely reaching
Wrn OK & Wrn KS Sun Afternoon. As such, there`ll be several rounds
of thunderstorms from Sun Afternoon thru next Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Evolving mesoscale convective system over central Kansas will
move east overnight with brief periods of IFR/MVFR VSBYS in
heavy rain and strong, gusty winds. Some MVFR CIGS can also
be expected Wednesday morning. A moist south to southeast wind
will continue on Wednesday and become gusty along and east of
the I-135 corridor. Some late day convection is also possible
though probably more isolated in nature.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  70  87  67 /  10  10  40  50
Hutchinson      89  67  87  66 /  10  10  50  50
Newton          89  69  86  66 /  20  20  40  50
ElDorado        88  70  86  67 /  20  20  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   89  71  87  67 /  20  10  40  50
Russell         89  61  88  62 /  20  10  40  50
Great Bend      89  61  88  63 /  10  10  50  40
Salina          90  67  89  66 /  20  20  40  50
McPherson       89  68  87  66 /  20  10  40  50
Coffeyville     86  71  86  68 /  50  20  30  50
Chanute         86  71  86  67 /  40  20  30  50
Iola            85  71  86  67 /  50  20  30  60
Parsons-KPPF    86  71  86  68 /  50  20  30  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED



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