Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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337
FXUS63 KICT 190920
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
320 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Persistent southerly flow along with increasing atmospheric
thickness in response to deep shortwave troughing approaching from
the west will support continued above normal temperatures mostly
in the 50s and 60s through Sunday. South winds will be rather
breezy and gusty, especially today and Sunday. Increasing low-
level moisture will support increasing clouds tonight through
Saturday, although suspect moisture and lift will not be deep
enough for drizzle production until possibly Saturday night/early
Sunday.

Attention then turns to potent neutral to slightly negatively
tilted shortwave trough moving across the region Sunday-Sunday
night. Per the latest operational model runs and associated
ensembles, which are in fairly good agreement, thinking the track
of this system will unfortunately be unfavorable for widespread
meaningful precipitation across much of central, south-central and
southeast Kansas. Consequently, expecting relatively low impact
from this system across Wichita`s forecast area.

Given the presence of a stout mid-level dry slot, precipitation
type will mostly be in the drizzle variety beginning Saturday
night, which may be in the form of patchy very light freezing
drizzle across central KS where temperatures will be below
freezing. The upper system and associated surface wave will eject
northeast across the area Sunday and Sunday night, with a tight
thermal gradient existing across the area (30s western KS, 60s
southeast KS). Given the system`s track and associated lift,
moisture, instability and thermal profile, the greatest potential
for plowable snow will be northwest of the forecast area,
stretching from northwest KS and far northern KS, and up through
NE. Far northern/northwest portions of Wichita`s forecast area
(Barton-Russell-Lincoln counties) will likely see less than one
inch Sunday evening-night given current model and ensemble trends.

Meanwhile, modest Gulf moisture return, steepening lapse rates
and weak instability ahead of the approaching shortwave and
associated frontal zone may support a handful of showers and
perhaps even a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon-evening across
far eastern KS, although suspect better chances will remain
further east/southeast across Missouri and Arkansas. All
precipitation will end Monday, with strong northwest winds and
cooler temperatures in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Model and ensemble consensus supports a return to quiet weather
through about Thursday. With the main polar/arctic jet remaining
north of the region, not expecting any major cool downs, with 40s-
50s expected next week. While specifics remain unclear this far
out, operational models and ensembles hint at another deepening
western and central CONUS trough by next Friday-Saturday, which
could bring another round of precipitation to the region. Stay
tuned for later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions expected to continue across the area overnight
through Friday. South winds will become diurnally gusty again by
late Friday morning through the afternoon. Besides some patchy
dense cirrus at times, shallow low level moisture will return to
far southeast Kansas late on Friday. This could manifest itself
into SCT-BKN stratus MVFR BASES-CIGS, though more likely just
beyond the forecast valid period at KCNU.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Breezy south winds will support marginal very high grassland fire
danger today. If current expectations verify, very high to low-
end extreme grassland fire danger could impact primarily south-
central KS Sunday afternoon, as strong/gusty south to southwest
winds couples with drying low-levels and above normal
temperatures. Very high grassland fire danger is also possible
Monday due to strong/gusty northwest winds in back of this system,
despite cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  35  57  41 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      58  33  53  35 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          53  35  53  39 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        53  37  54  41 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   55  37  60  44 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         62  27  54  28 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      62  25  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          52  31  49  32 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       56  32  52  34 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     50  38  56  47 /   0  10  10  10
Chanute         53  37  53  44 /   0  10  10  10
Iola            51  36  52  43 /   0  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    52  37  55  46 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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