Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 262037
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
337 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Convective trends with potential MCS tracks the next few nights
remains the main challenge. Isolated to widely scattered diurnally
driven convection developed as expected near the Oklahoma border
primarily in southeast Kansas this afternoon. Expect this activity
to wane toward sunset with perhaps a couple strong storms with
gusty winds possible. Otherwise the main focus for convection will
be across the northern Plains this evening into the overnight. Some
patchy fog is possible in low-lying areas of the Flint Hills and
central Kansas. Mesoscale outflow of the expected storm clusters or
MCS evolving from the northern Plains tonight will likely modulate
the effective surface front southward into southern Nebraska and
perhaps close to the Kansas border during Wednesday. A shortwave
now moving over the far northwest CONUS should venture across the
northern Plains during peak heating Wednesday afternoon/evening.
These features should be sufficient to focus and force convection
along the surface front by early Wednesday evening. A modest
increase in winds aloft is expected to develop in proximity to the
developing storm cluster which should increase the cloud-bearing
deep layer shear and aid in storm maintenance with a southeastward
movement/propagation across north central and portions of eastern
Kansas Wednesday night. The challenge then becomes how far south
the convective complex and resultant mesoscale outflow comes and
modulates the airmass for Thursday and the position of the
effective surface front across the area. After any lingering
convection early Thursday morning there could be a relative lull
into the afternoon, though will maintain slight to modest chance
PoPs. However, upslope flow focused north of the front across
western Kansas and another approaching shortwave aloft late
Thursday should result in another convective cluster or MCS over
the high Plains which would tend to move/propagate across western
into portions of central Kansas Thursday night. Friday should be
the coolest day of the next few in the wake of Thursday nights
system and perhaps drier than indicated, though will maintain a
modest PoP through the day as there is enough uncertainty with the
expected convection the next few days and where the effective
boundary will actually be situated by Friday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Upper ridge still on track to build over the central CONUS
by early next week so the trend toward hot and dry still looks
reasonable.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Could see some lingering MVFR cigs across Central and South Central
KS for a few more hours, as low level moisture continues to burn
off. The main concern for the afternoon hours will be across
portions of SE KS where a few isolated storms may develop in and
around the KCNU TAF site. So will go with a VCTS for a few hours
near KCNU.

Otherwise expect VFR conditions for the rest of the region overnight
into early Wed. Some hi-rez model solutions are hinting at some
patchy MVFR type vsbys from fog across Central KS for early Wed
morning, but will keep this mention out for now and see how the
evening goes.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  92  72  91 /  10  10  40  30
Hutchinson      70  91  71  90 /  10  10  50  30
Newton          70  90  71  89 /  10  10  50  30
ElDorado        71  91  71  89 /  10  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   72  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30
Russell         69  92  69  89 /  10  20  50  20
Great Bend      69  92  70  89 /  10  10  40  20
Salina          70  93  70  90 /  10  20  60  20
McPherson       71  91  71  89 /  10  10  50  30
Coffeyville     72  91  72  91 /  20  20  30  40
Chanute         72  90  71  89 /  20  20  30  40
Iola            71  90  71  89 /  20  20  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  91  72  90 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...Ketcham


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