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000
FXUS63 KICT 141135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO THE WEST...WITH ONE
WAVE OVER THE BAJA AND THE SECOND ONE JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THE BAJA WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING LATE AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE DRYLINE WHICH WOULD BE WEST OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BUT SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER END...SO
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WOULD BE MULTI-CELL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MIXED IN. THE SECOND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE LOOKS FAIRLY HEALTHY ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...BUT TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IF THE
UPPER WAVE CAN MAINTAIN ITS CONTINUITY THEN WE SEE DECENT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH-IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY COULD VERY
WELL CONGEAL INTO A MCS FOLLOWING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE
700MB THERMAL GRADIENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND NORTHERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND SHOULD INCREASE AT SOME POINT
THIS PERIOD...AS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. AGAIN STILL
EXPECTING GULF MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RICHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL SEEM LIMITED
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER
WARM. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MORE SO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHEN
BETTER FORCING AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS
LIKELY ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS TWO DAY PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

QUIET VFR WEATHER ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AROUND SUNSET...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BRISK OVERNIGHT. FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING KRSL/KSLN JUST BEYOND
FORECAST PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  63  83  64 /   0  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      90  62  84  63 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          89  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        88  63  83  63 /   0  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  10
RUSSELL         95  60  87  60 /  10  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      94  60  87  60 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          91  62  86  61 /  10  10  30  40
MCPHERSON       90  62  85  62 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     88  63  81  65 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         87  63  82  64 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            86  62  82  64 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  63  81  64 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$