Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141103
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
603 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Marginal risk for severe storms late this afternoon in far
  southeast Kansas dependent on whether front clears the area.

* Dry seasonably cool with temperatures near or slightly above
  climo through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Strong to severe convection continues to feed on instability of
1500-2000 j/kg across southeast Kansas with several reports of
severe wind and marginal hailstones. The surface cold front will
continue to merge/overtake the dry-line over south central
Kansas this morning though it may slow its southeastward
progress a bit by midday with subtle ridging aloft in the wake
of the departing upper shortwave. Depending on its
movement/position at late afternoon, a risk for strong to severe
storms could linger across far southeast Kansas. If so,
marginally severe hail/wind will be the primary threats before
growing upscale as it exits the area by early evening. Much
cooler and dry weather for Friday. The Southwest conus upper
low will become cut-off as we head into the weekend with Kansas
being influenced by a stronger northern stream upper trof
evolving from the Great Lakes across the eastern conus through
early next week. This will support dry weather and temperatures
wavering near or just above and climo.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Northerly winds will prevail through the period at all sites as
the front recently pushed through CNU. There is some uncertainty
this morning with regards to MVFR stratus development, which may
persist into the afternoon. Latest model solutions have backed
off on that solutions and have opted to maintain a scattered
MVFR group at most sites. The majority of precipitation has
ended at the sites although a stray shower/storm remains
possible for an hour or 2 at RSL. Northerly winds will become
gusty this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. Storm development
this afternoon/evening should remain well south of the
terminals. An additional bout of MVFR stratus is possible late
tonight through dawn Friday but confidence is too low for
mention at this point.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Rather muted fire weather conditions the next few days with
relatively moderate daytime humidity levels. A bit drier air and
moderate wind speeds on Sunday afternoon may allow portions of
central Kansas to approach very high fire danger for an or two
in the afternoon.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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