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000
FXUS63 KICT 132248
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
548 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ABOUT TO COME ON
SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING IS IN
PLACE FROM CENTRAL ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN
THE LEE TROUGHING AND WILL SPREAD A THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR TUE. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SEASON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WARM TEMPS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ON WED
AND SHOULD END UP BETWEEN I-70 AND HIGHWAY 400 BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS BY WED AFTERNOON. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL
CAPPING AND GOOD CONVERGENCE...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON/WED
EVENING WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE FORECAST CAPE
AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
CONVECTION MAYBE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IF THE NAM VERIFIES WITH IT
SLIDING THROUGH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOESN`T BRING THIS IMPULSE OUT
UNTIL THU MORNING.

WITH THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE TIMING OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES...CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES THU ARE
VERY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ON SHORE THU NIGHT AND OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING OUT A DRYLINE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRI AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED FRI
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONLY SHOT FOR CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS BACK
TOWARD SUNSET. SO IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD ONLY EXPECTED A
FEW STORMS WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD
CAPPING IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS...AT LEAST
THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL COOLING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS WOULD FAVOR MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND OK AS IT HAS A JET STREAK NOSING
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THIS FEATURE
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. IN ADDITION THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN SO
WILL LINGER SOME SMALL STORM CHANCES ON SUN...ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN KS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE TAF
PERIOD BETWEEN LEE CYCLONGENESIS ALONG THE LEE SLOPE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST U.S. LLWS POTENTIAL
MARGINAL GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAINED MIXED OVERNIGHT. BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KT ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE COMMENCING BETWEEN
14-16 UTC.

SF


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON TUE WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL KS. IN ADDITION...RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
20% RANGE OVER CENTRAL KS WITH AROUND 40% EXPECTED OVER SE KS. THE
ONLY THING KEEPING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FROM BEING ELEVATED
IS THE RECENT RAINS CAUSING A QUICK GREEN-UP OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  90  63  83 /   0   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      60  92  62  84 /   0   0  10  40
NEWTON          60  90  63  82 /   0   0  10  30
ELDORADO        60  89  63  82 /   0   0  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  89  64  84 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         58  95  60  83 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      59  95  60  84 /   0   0  10  30
SALINA          59  93  62  84 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       60  91  62  84 /   0   0  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     59  88  63  81 /   0  10  10  30
CHANUTE         58  87  63  82 /   0   0  10  30
IOLA            58  86  62  82 /   0   0  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    58  88  63  81 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$