Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 082342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
542 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Tonight through Friday:

A strong polar surface high will continue to slide slowly eastward
across central/eastern Kansas tonight into Friday morning, with the
high becoming centered over Missouri by late Friday afternoon. With
mostly clear skies and light/variable winds, this will allow low
temperatures in the single digits to around 10 degrees. Wind chills
of zero to 5 below are expected mainly to the northwest of the
Kansas Turnpike early Friday morning. Despite winds becoming
southerly on Friday, the proximity of the high center will keep
temperatures below average for this time of year with highs in the
upper 20s to middle 30s.

Saturday through Sunday:

The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian deterministic models were in better
agreement today, indicating channeled shortwave energy emanating off
the northeast Pacific, amplifying some as it traverses eastward
across the Central Plains Sunday into Sunday night. Well ahead of
this approaching system, lee cyclogenesis will occur over Southeast
Colorado on Saturday. This will increase the pressure gradient
across Kansas, with southerly winds increasing with gusts of 30 to
35 mph. The warm air advection will bring high temperatures back to
near normal (Low-mid 40s). The low will move northeastward across
Kansas Sunday, reaching northwest Missouri Sunday evening. Low-level
warm air/moisture advection increases northward into southeastern
Kansas very late Saturday night into Sunday with dry mid-level air.
Sounding profiles along with above freezing surface temperatures
indicate the potential for persistent drizzle (perhaps light rain) in
the southeast, with considerable cloud cover elsewhere. Strong
subsidence is progged behind the departing shortwave Sunday night
which should allow for clearing skies.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

The GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models continue to prog a very strong
upper low sliding slowly east-southeastward across south-central
Canada during this period, with a fast, progressive nearly zonal mid-
upper current across the CONUS. These models are in fairly good
agreement in depicting an arctic airmass surging out of southwestern
Canada into the north-central CONUS. This airmass should arrive in
Kansas Tuesday then persisting through Thursday, with below to much
below normal temperatures appearing likely. A period or two of
flurries or light snow cannot be ruled out once this cold airmass
arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Surface ridge that extends through the Plains will push east
tonight into Fri as the upper pattern flattens out. This will
flip winds around to the southeast by Fri morning. Some mid level
warm advection may result in an increase in mid clouds, but
confidence is high they will remain at VFR levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    10  32  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson       7  31  20  44 /   0   0   0   0
Newton           8  30  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado         8  30  20  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD    9  33  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
Russell          6  31  17  42 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend       7  33  18  43 /   0   0   0   0
Salina           6  30  17  43 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson        6  30  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     10  32  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute          9  31  19  43 /   0   0   0   0
Iola             8  30  18  42 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF     8  32  20  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL


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