Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
000
FXUS63 KICT 140526
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight across the Flint Hills
and southeast Kansas.
* Brief cool down on Friday with another cool down Sun-Mon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
A warm front was mixing northward across the area early this
morning and is expected to be in the vicinity of the I-70
corridor late this afternoon. This frontal zone will become a
focus for showers and storms after 21Z. Low level mass
convergence will allow dewpoint temperatures to pool in the warm
frontal zone allowing the cap to weaken sufficiently for
scattered storms to develop as the pv anomaly lifts out of the
base of the H5 toward 00Z. As you move southward along the
anticipated dryline, the airmass may remain capped to deep moist
convection. Low level backed flow in the vicinity of the warm
front along the I-70 corridor will be the most likely location
for a tornado or two in addition to very large hail and damaging
winds.
As we move into the overnight hours, the dryline is progged to
retreat westward. There remains a nonzero chance for a storm or two
along the retreating dryline but point soundings show a considerable
cap which may preclude more vigorous and widespread deep moist
convection. Higher probabilities will remain across northeast Kansas
where the nose of the LLJ should provide sufficient
lift/moisture for more widespread development. A slow moving
cold front will eventually merge and overtake the dryline late
tonight and into the morning hours on Thursday. The low level
frontal zone will continue moving southeast on Thursday and will
likely be south and east of our forecast area on Thursday
afternoon when the next round of deep moist convection is
anticipated. Some low pops were maintained in far southeast KS
to account for uncertainty in the movement. Cooler air will
overspread central KS with highs struggling to climb out of the
50s while far southeast KS will see well above normal highs once
again with values topping out in the upper 70s.
Fri-Sat...Cooler air will overspread the area on Friday with
seasonable temperatures in the 50s and low 60s anticipated. Another
vigorous shortwave trough is progged to dig into the Great Lakes
area on Saturday driving a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the
Plains. This shot of cool air will be slow to arrive with seasonably
mild temperatures expected on Sat.
Northwest mid/upper flow will prevail into the middle of next week
allowing dry weather conditions to persist across the area. A
series of more subtle shortwave troughs will drive some frontal
boundaries southward bringing little more than a wind shift with
seasonably mild temperatures anticipated through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Best chance for strong to severe convection overnight will be
east of the Kansas turnpike until about 10z. Gusty/mesoscale
perturbed winds expected along and behind the convection though
generally northerly behind a cold front across central Kansas.
The front will make slow progress across southeast Kansas during
Thursday with gusty north winds in all locales by the late
afternoon and evening on Thursday. Expect to see some
development of post-frontal MVFR stratus toward dawn in central
Kansas, spreading gradually southeast during the day.
KED
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
A brief window will exist late this afternoon and early evening for
a period of very high grassland fire danger across south central
Kansas as a dryline mixes eastward into the area. Gusty south to
southwest winds may allow for a brief window where relative humidity
falls with wind gusts to around 30+ mph at times.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...MWM