Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191759
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1259 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TODAY:
INITIAL CONCERNS ARE MODEL FORECASTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/
MOISTURE ADVECTION LEADING TO ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WEST OF SLN-ICT-EGT LINE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS/RAP
ALL SHOW WHAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAP...BUT DID HAVE AN ATTEMPT
SOUTHWEST OF HYS EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT HAS DISSIPATED. THIS
APPEARED TO BE SEPARATE FROM DYING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. SO WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. BASED ON 0000 UTC RAOBS...WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RECICULATED COLD AIR ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST
TODAY...SO WARM UP WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODERATED.

TONIGHT-MON:
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUN WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MON TURNING
UP HEAT ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...BUT STILL KEEPING CLOSE WATCH FOR 09-15 UTC PERIOD ON SUN
AND MON ALONG WESTERN CORRIDOR OF FORECAST AREA. STILL HAVE VERY
MODEST SIGNALS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...SIGNALS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG NOR VERY WELL
PHASED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FOR EXTENDED...ECMWF REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT MORE ERRATIC. GFS
HAS SHOWN MUCH MORE VARIATION IN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING AND
RESULTANT TRACK/TIMING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE NOT AS DISPARATE
AS THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK. BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES APPEARS TO BE TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND RESULTANT CAPPING WILL MAKE WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION A
TOUGH CALL. CURRENT FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WOULD PUSH
HEAT INDICES TO 105-107 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION RISK
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DEWPOINT
FORECAST THAT FAR OUT IS LIMITED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

STRATUS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING...WITH MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AFFECTING KICT AND KCNU.  FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING TRENDS...AND EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS
3-5K AGL BY 20-21 UTC.

GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATING THAT STRATUS/FOG COULD REDEVELOP
30/09-11UTC ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE OF
REOCCURENCE GIVEN MODELS MAY BE BIASED TOWARD THIS MORNINGS
CONDITIONS/INITIALIZATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...INTRODUCED A
SCATTERED CONDITIONS AT 1-2K.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  67  92  73 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  67  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          84  67  92  73 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        83  66  91  72 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  66  91  72 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         88  69  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  69  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          87  68  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       85  67  94  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     83  65  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         84  65  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  65  89  71 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  65  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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