Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 261744
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION OF THE US WILL SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND TREK ACROSS NW KS.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST FOR AREAS JUST TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ALREADY
SEEING INCREASED SATURATION OF THE LOW LAYERS AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLOUD HIEGHTS
DROPPING.  ALSO SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON THE 88D...BUT MOST
OF THIS SO FAR LOOKS TO BE VIRGA OR ELEVATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES.

THINK THIS SATURATION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
CHANCES FOR SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL KS...BUT SNOW CHANCES
LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS DRIER WILL WORK IN...POSSIBLY TURNING
LIGHT SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
BASICALLY SOUNDINGS SATURATE JUST IN TIME TO BEGIN DRYING OUT. SO
CURRENTLY THINKING SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF GOING
FORECAST TOTALS WITH A 1/2 INCH IN CENTRAL KS NORTHWEST OF KHUT AND
TRACE AMOUNTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PROGGED TO SHEAR EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN A VARIETY
OF TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS SE KS.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE MORE ROBUST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND TRANSIENT COUPLED FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MAINTAINED CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
BRIEF CHANGEOVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SE KS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE COMING TO AN END AFTER 09-10Z.

SAT-SUN...SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S/AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A SHIFT TOWARD MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS WERE TRENDED COLDER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SE KS AND KCNU. MVFR
CIGS WERE PREDOMINATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE ARE SOME IFR
CIGS LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. SO WILL
MENTION SOME IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS IN KICT/KHUT...WITH MVFR CIGS
NEAR KRSL/KSLN.

STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
INCREASE LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF KS AFTER
00Z.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF -FZDZ AND -SN AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.  BUT
NOT EXPECTING -FZDZ OR -SN TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
AND VERY LITTLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS. ONLY EXPECT THE PRECIP CHANCE TO
LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS AT BEST...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...ENDING THE
PRECIP CHANCES.

THINK MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT LEAST UNTIL
09Z/SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  27  36  19 /  20  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      38  24  34  16 /  30  40  10   0
NEWTON          41  25  33  17 /  20  50  10   0
ELDORADO        47  28  36  19 /  20  50  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  30  37  20 /  20  50  10   0
RUSSELL         31  19  31  14 /  60  60   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  20  31  15 /  50  50   0   0
SALINA          37  24  33  16 /  30  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       37  24  33  16 /  30  40  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  36  38  22 /  50  60  10   0
CHANUTE         54  33  36  21 /  30  60  10   0
IOLA            53  33  36  21 /  30  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  35  38  22 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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