Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260823
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY BEFORE ARRIVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER A STRONG CAP WILL PRECLUDE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST
MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST CHANCES
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATE TUE POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KS THIS EVE APPEARS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK
VORT AND MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT
RSL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS TROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS
LATE SATURDAY PM/EVE. THIS COULD SET OFF ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS BY EARLY SAT EVE. OTHERWISE
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   103  75  92  66 /  10  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON     105  74  90  65 /  10  20  10   0
NEWTON         104  75  90  65 /  10  20  10   0
ELDORADO       101  75  91  64 /  10  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD  101  76  93  66 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL        100  71  89  66 /  10  20   0   0
GREAT BEND     100  72  89  65 /  10  20  10   0
SALINA         103  73  90  64 /  10  20  10   0
MCPHERSON      103  74  90  64 /  10  20  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     98  75  93  65 /  10  20  20   0
CHANUTE         97  75  92  64 /  10  20  20   0
IOLA            98  75  91  64 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  75  93  65 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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