Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 130939
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
339 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Today:
Clouds will hang tough all day as mid level moisture persists.
Clouds have kept temperatures up a bit this morning, but will also
hinder warm up. Shaded temperatures a bit warmer this morning and
cooler this afternoon.

Tonight-Sunday:
Initial warm air advection may trigger flurries in far northwest
during the evening, but better chance will wait until fast moving
ripple in northwest flow aloft gets closer. Appears chances will
increase across Flint Hills/southeast KS 0900-1200 UTC and persist
into mid morning across mainly Southeast KS. Both NAM/GFS show
very respectable lift in the snow growth zone. However the
boundary layer starts relatively dry, so early precipitation will
go to moistening the column. Western extent of precipitation
throughout this period is uncertain, both due to dry air, and the
various models take on the orientation/track and timing of the
wave, which is just now moving into the Northern Rockies.

Sunday night-Monday:
Next surge of colder air will arrive late Sunday night and should
exit the forecast area near/shortly after daybreak Monday. Fairly
impressive lift in snow growth zone is forecast once again, mainly
over the northeast half of forecast area, with longest duration
over the Flint Hills. There is limited upper support for
precipitation, but baroclinicity is good given the strength of the
front. The main keys will be the low level dry air and orientation
of 850MB-700MB flow relative to the isotherms. Gusty north winds
and more cold air will spill into the area with temperatures
likely steady or falling throughout the day. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

After a very chilly Tuesday with clearing and potentially fresh
snow over parts of the area, temperatures slowly moderate starting
Wednesday as upper trough finally moves east and ridging builds
into the plains. Next piece of energy will be moving out of the
rockies early Thursday. GFS is still more aggressive with the
moisture return and generates some precipitation in southeast KS
on Thursday. But this seems optimistic and consensus was to keep
forecast dry. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Ceilings will lower a bit as we move through the day although VFR
is expected to prevail. We may see some light snow flurries
impacting portions of central KS where a very transient period of
MVFR cigs will be possible. A reinforcing shot of cool air will
arrive tonight in the wake of the subtle storm system with light
north to northeast winds prevailing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    22  18  42  23 /   0  20  10  10
Hutchinson      19  16  42  21 /   0  20  10  10
Newton          20  17  39  20 /   0  30  10  20
ElDorado        22  18  40  22 /   0  30  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   25  20  42  24 /   0  20  10   0
Russell         18  16  46  18 /  10  20   0  30
Great Bend      20  17  47  20 /   0  10   0  20
Salina          17  15  41  20 /  10  40  10  50
McPherson       18  15  40  20 /   0  30  10  30
Coffeyville     25  20  40  25 /   0  30  30  10
Chanute         23  18  38  22 /   0  40  40  20
Iola            22  18  37  22 /   0  50  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    24  19  38  23 /   0  40  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK



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