Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 112342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
542 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

An arctic front was bisecting Kansas this afternoon with post-
frontal temperatures quickly dropping around 20 degrees in it`s
wake. This cold air will become more deeply entrenched across the
area on Thursday with dry weather conditions and below normal
temperatures anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

As we move into Friday, a lead shortwave trough may bring a quick
round of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain to mainly southeast
KS early on Friday while soundings further west across much of
south central Kansas struggle to saturate deep enough to produce
precipitation. A winter storm watch will be issued for portions of
southeast KS on Friday for the accumulation of freezing rain.

The low level thermal profile continues to be the primary challenge
as we move into Saturday with light precipitation developing as we
move through the day. The GFS solution allows temperatures to
rise above freezing by midday on Sat for much of south central and
southeast KS supporting all rain while the Ecmwf holds the
freezing line steady across far southeast KS. Temperatures
hovering near freezing would likely limit the icing potential for
at least portions of south central and southeast KS but for
locations west of the Kansas Turnpike, or locations along a line
from near Hutchinson to McPherson we may see a longer duration of
below freezing temperatures and the potential for more significant
accumulations of freezing rain as we move through Saturday night
into Sunday. Uncertainty in how quickly temperatures rise remains
the biggest challenge. The GFS actually maintains temperatures
above freezing for much of the area Sat night but we continue to
lean towards the colder near sfc temperatures from the ECMWF which
supports freezing rain across the majority of the area through the
day on Sunday before the warm front lifts north allowing
temperatures to rise into the 50s Sunday-Sunday night. If the
colder low level airmass verifies, significant icing will occur
across much of the area Saturday night into Sunday and a winter
storm watch will be issued for much of the area. Another concern
will be the potential for heavy rain and flooding as PWATs are
progged to rise above 1 inch or exceed 275 percent of normal
across the southern and portions of central plains states as the
mid/upper trough emerges negatively tilted across the area late
Sun/early Mon. Excessive rainfall exceeding 2 inches will be
possible for portions of the area before precipitation comes to an
end on Monday.

Temperatures will moderate in the wake of the storm system with dry
conditions expected and highs returning to the upper 40s and low 50s
toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24hrs
as high clouds stream overhead. Meanwhile a cold front was
pushing southward across Kansas early this evening and will keep
winds out of the north through the day on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    20  35  21  28 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      16  32  18  26 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          16  32  19  27 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        19  34  21  29 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   21  38  24  30 /   0   0  10  40
Russell         12  29  15  25 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      12  31  15  26 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          14  30  17  26 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       15  31  18  26 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     27  38  28  34 /  10   0  20  60
Chanute         23  34  24  30 /  10   0  10  40
Iola            24  33  22  29 /  10   0  10  40
Parsons-KPPF    25  36  27  33 /  10   0  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ072-095-096-098>100.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ047-050>053-067>071-082-083-091>094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ



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