Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 011617
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER KANSAS AND NORTHERLY WINDS FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. WE STILL COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO EJECTS NORTHEAST. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE QUALITY IS NOT THAT GREAT.
MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS HAVE THIS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE MID-LEVELS
BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. WE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
JUNCTURE DUE TO THE LOW CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS PROVIDING SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY ACROSS KANSAS...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES WITH DEEP
MERIDIONAL TROUGHS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEGRADED AT FIRST NEXT
WEEKEND...THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE/NORTHERLY WINDS RESIDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVING
FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. NONE THE LESS THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND MIXING.

A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WILL EJECT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHILE SHEARING OUT AND WEAKENING. MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAY YIELD
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...AND WILL USE VCSH AT
HUT...ICT...CNU. OTHERWISE...MORE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPEAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
VIA NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  43  63  44 /  30  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      58  41  63  40 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          59  42  63  43 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        61  42  63  43 /  20  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  43  63  43 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         54  39  65  40 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      55  39  64  40 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          56  41  64  42 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  41  64  41 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  45  62  44 /  20  30  20  10
CHANUTE         62  44  62  44 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            62  44  62  44 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  44  62  43 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC


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