Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 102143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PRONOUNCED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL
& SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WHERE W-NW 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN
COMBINING WITH SUN-DRENCHED SKIES TO SEND TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MANY AREAS W OF I-135.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

TONIGHT & THU:
A BROAD INVERTED CANADIAN SFC RIDGE THAT THIS AFTERNOON IS ALIGNED
WITH THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WILL PUNCH S/SE ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY & GREAT LAKES REGIONS. WHILE THESE AREAS CATCH THE BRUNT
OF THE CANADIAN AIRMASS INJECTION...THE ONSETTING COLD ADVECTION
BENEATH ~1,000FT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE V-E-R-Y L-O-W STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW CORRIDOR OF THE KICT CWA VERY EARLY THU
MORNING. (RUSSELL, BARTON & LINCOLN COUNTIES.) TO `AIR` ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION HAVE ASSIGNED "PATCHY FOG" TO THESE AREAS TILL ~9AM THU.
AS THE BROAD INVERTED CANADIAN RIDGE CONTINUES TO SURGE SE ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY THU AFTERNOON...A NE/SW TEMP GRADIENT WOULD SET UP
ACROSS KS. WITH THE NLY LOWER-DECK FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE S/SW EARLY THU AFTERNOON THE
STRATUS WOULD SCOUR FROM CENTRAL KS DURING THIS PERIOD...SOON
ENOUGH FOR TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TO REBOUND INTO THE 45-50F RANGE.

THU NIGHT-SAT:
EVEN STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA LATE THU NIGHT WILL THEN SPREAD S/SE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE UPPER & MID-
MS VALLEY ON SAT. WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS WEEKEND A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED NE-SW TEMP GRADIENT WOULD
DOMINATE. THE GRADIENT WOULD SHARPEN FRI NIGHT & SAT AS THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS SPILLS ACROSS THE MO & MID-MS VALLEYS. HAVE LOWERED SAT`S
MAXES FOR ALL AREAS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE LOWER-MID 30S ARE NOW ASSIGNED.)

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SUN-MON NIGHT:
A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARLY ALL AREAS
GENERALLY E OF I-135 SUN MORNING WITH A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
SUN AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SPRINTS SE FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS & ECMWF WITH THE LATTER DEPICTING A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-
DECK WAVE SCOOTING SE ACROSS TX & OK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE WAVE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE ERN RED RIVER ON MON.
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGING THAT`LL
MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BROADENING AS
IT SPREADS TOWARD THE PLAINS MON NIGHT & TUE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED. REGARDLESS...ALL LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE VACATED THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

TUE-WED:
WITH A 2ND (& STRONGER) UPPER-DECK RIDGE CROSSING THE PACIFIC COAST
ON TUE THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT & WED WARMER WEATHER WOULD
RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOWER-DECK FLOW SHIFTS FROM A WLY TO A SWLY
COMPONENT AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT
WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION INDICATED. MOST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST HINTS OF IFR/MVFR DECKS DEVELOPING OVER SNOW-PACKED
AREAS OF NEBRASKA/IOWA...DRIFTING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED IFR/MVFR
DECKS IN CENTRAL KS FOR NOW...AND LET EVENING SHIFT FURTHER
EVALUATE TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE THU & FRI AS A CANADIAN
AIRMASS PUNCHES S/SE ACROSS THE UPPER & MID-MS VALLEY. THE MUCH
COOLER AIR WOULD LOWER THE GRASSLAND FIRE CONSIDERABLY THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  49  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      27  49  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  46  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        27  46  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         26  46  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  51  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          26  43  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  46  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     26  46  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         24  43  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  42  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    25  45  27  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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