Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 261146
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PLAINS...WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL FILL IN ON THE REAR
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING RATHER
DRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A NICE DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEAMPLIFIED AND QUASI-ZONAL OFF OF
THE PACIFIC DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE DAMPENED WITH
THIS FEATURE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH WITH THAT WAVE. A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE- 850 RIDGING OVER THE GULF FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY.
THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ICT-CNU
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AT SLN-RSL THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BECOMING
GUSTY FOR A TIME...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OVER
NORTHWEST KS. THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS IN ITS WAKE.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY LOW
TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST KS TODAY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD RESULT
IN HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  34  58  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          56  32  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  33  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  34  58  40 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         60  31  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  31  62  38 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  33  58  36 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  33  58  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  35  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         55  33  53  37 /  10  30  10  10
IOLA            54  33  52  36 /  20  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  34  54  37 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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