Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161658
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1058 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 215 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Water vapor imagery shows one shortwave tracking across southern
Ontario/eastern Great Lakes with additional shortwave energy about
to come on shore over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the
cold front that came through yesterday is now situated down across
the southern Mississippi Valley with high pressure extending from
MN into the Ozark region.

Surface high will quickly shift east today as lee troughing
strengthens. This will result in increasing south winds and better
moisture starting to work back north. By early this evening, most
of southern and eastern KS should be socked-in with with low
clouds. Just like the last couple weeks, expecting another round
of drizzle for locations mainly along and southeast of the KS
Turnpike late tonight into Fri morning.

High temps will be very challenging for Fri. Still look to have
good downslope conditions with extremely warm 850mb temps. The
main question will be how quick the low clouds clear out which
will have a big impact on how deep we are able to mix. NAM now
holds clouds in longer compared to yesterday`s runs which limits
full heating. Meanwhile, the GFS is quicker to clear things out
and thus has warmer temps. Regardless of which models pans out, it
still looks like above normal temps Fri.

Progressive upper wave is still expected to swing across the
central Plains Fri night allowing a strong cold front to quickly
push through. The main story with the front will not be precip,
but rather strong northwest winds behind the front Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

For the weekend, upper troughing will remain over the eastern
CONUS with broad ridging over the Rockies. There is good model
agreement in a piece of energy tracking out of southern Canada and
into the northern Plains by Mon evening. This feature will bring
slightly cooler temps for Tue-Wed with the precip chances staying
north and east of the forecast area. So through these extended
periods, Mon looks like the warmest day, with highs around 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Low level warm/moist advection in the developing southerly flow
will result in IFR stratus cigs tonight roughly along/east of the
I-135 corridor. MVFR vsbys in patchy fog can also be expected with
potential for IFR vsbys in fog/drizzle. South winds will become
gusty later today and tonight.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  52  75  45 /   0  10  10   0
Hutchinson      59  49  76  43 /   0  10   0   0
Newton          59  50  72  42 /   0  10  10   0
ElDorado        59  51  73  44 /   0  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   60  53  74  46 /   0  20  10   0
Russell         61  45  75  39 /   0   0   0  20
Great Bend      61  46  76  39 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          60  49  73  42 /   0  10   0  10
McPherson       59  49  74  42 /   0  10   0  10
Coffeyville     62  52  71  50 /   0  30  30  10
Chanute         59  52  70  47 /   0  30  30  10
Iola            59  51  69  46 /   0  30  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    61  52  70  48 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED



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