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000
FXUS63 KICT 181955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEING
AFFECTED BY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT EVOLVES/MOVES
EAST OFF THE DRY-LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST. STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AT PEAK HEATING WITH INITIATION
EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AT
LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE KEY IN HOW FAR EAST THIS
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST AS FAR EAST
AS THE TURNPIKE THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PROGGED ENERGY
HELICITY VALUES BELOW 3KM AND 1KM SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EVEN AFTER DARK UP THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS SOME NEGATING FACTORS WITH CAP
STRENGTH AND FLOW ALOFT FOR CONVECTIVE AND SUPERCELL MAINTENANCE
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY DOES LEAD TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY OPEN.
-KED

SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WEST OF I-135 KEEPING THE
GREATEST THREAT MAINLY EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MIXING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD WHILE THE GFS PROGS INDICATE A
RETREATING DRYLINE SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCAPE/HAIL GROWTH REGION LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THE SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ON
SUNDAY AS A MORE ROBUST H25 SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-8KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 80 KNOTS BY 00Z MON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MON-TUE...WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON POPS WEIGHTED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HARD TO RULE OUT MORE SEVERE WEATHER BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. -MWM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A PATTERN THAT MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. -MWM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MVFR CIGS IMPACTING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE BIGGER THREAT TURNS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT ALL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNU. TIMING WITH EXPECTED TERMINAL IMPACTS
IS QUESTIONABLE FOR NOW AND WILL DEPEND ON STORM INITIATION.
EXPECT STORMS TO LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE WELL INTO THE MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  86  60  81 /  60  50  60  30
HUTCHINSON      67  87  58  83 /  50  50  40  30
NEWTON          67  83  60  78 /  60  60  60  30
ELDORADO        68  86  62  82 /  60  60  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  86  63  81 /  60  60  60  40
RUSSELL         64  82  52  79 /  50  40  20  20
GREAT BEND      64  82  53  79 /  50  40  20  20
SALINA          68  85  58  80 /  40  50  40  20
MCPHERSON       67  86  58  82 /  50  50  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  87  66  82 /  20  60  70  60
CHANUTE         70  85  66  81 /  30  70  70  50
IOLA            70  85  66  81 /  30  80  70  50
PARSONS-KPPF    70  86  66  81 /  30  70  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$