Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 190531
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1131 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

A wave is positioned along the Front Range with the
increasing gradient which combined with mixing has brought windy
conditions for Kansas. Wind gusts have been from 40 to even 55 mph
with the highest gusts in Russell County. Temperatures have climbed
into the lower 50s to lower 60s. The Red Flag Warning and Wind
Advisory remain in effect until 6PM.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Robust warm advection continues to lead to lots of low level
moisture streaming to the north.  Latest RAP shows this moisture
transport and advection continuing for the late evening hours and
overnight. Already seeing increased mid level clouds in response to
the advection across wrn OK at this time. As this moisture advection
lifts NE overnight, think a few showers will develop for areas east
of the KS Turnpike after midnight, as isentropic lift also
increases. MUCAPE also increases to around 1000 j/kg which could
also lead to a few embedded thunderstorms. Increasing pops for SE KS
look on track, with a mention of showers and some isolated
thunderstorms. Do not plan on any major changes to the grids/zones
at this time. Certainly think that SE KS will see widely scattered
showers and a few storms by sunrise Mon morning.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Forecast challenges and highlights: Precipitation chances for this
evening into the first part of the week and high temperatures on
Monday as well as Tuesday

A trough is moving onshore while a wave along the Front Range is
going to have a portion of it head to the northeast. This will
create an axis from northeast to southwest. The system is slow
moving as much of the trough apparently wants to hang out over the
Rockies. As the axis sits in place, there is increasing moisture
advecting moving into the Southern Plains. Chances of precipitation
may move in beginning tonight with the movement of the wave. Models
differ in the extent of the precipitation for tonight into
Monday. The highlighted area is still in the southeast corner of
the Sunflower State, southern Missouri and eastern Oklahoma.

Warm air advection is ramped up for Monday with a piece of cold
air advection on the back side of the wave across northwest Kansas
into Nebraska. High temperatures for the start of the work week
were a challenge as the southeast advance of the cold air could
creep into central Kansas. Discrepancies exist in the models with
some going much cooler and others keeping the values higher. There
will definitely be a cool down, but it is hard to say how much
that will be.

Chances of precipitation increase for Missouri into eastern
Oklahoma with a highlight over southeast Kansas of our county
warning area. Thunderstorm activity has a higher likelihood on
Monday afternoon and evening. It is possible that there could be
an isolated stronger wind gust of 40 to 50 mph or small hail, but
heavy rain is more likely. Anticipated precipitation will
certainly help the moderate and severe drought conditions for that
area. Moisture is certainly going to be welcomed with open arms.
Accumulations continue to range from a half of an inch to two
inches with the highest values in the southeast corner of the
state. Higher amounts are expected in the Ozarks. Across central
Kansas, the profile column indicates low level moisture that would
suggest freezing drizzle versus freezing rain on Monday night
into Tuesday.

As the trough finally shifts out of the area, an advance of cold
air will occur on Tuesday. On Wednesday morning, the drop in
temperatures to the single digits for central Kansas calculate
wind chills below zero.  Surface high pressure comes in on
Wednesday, and high temperatures will only top out in the lower
30s. A mixed type is currently anticipated with the latest blend
of the models for Wednesday for the entire area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

A weak wave is showing up to move across on Thursday with the more
pronounced feature not until Saturday. Chances of precipitation
remain in the forecast for most of the extended forecast. The
temperatures aloft vary between models and beg the question of the
precipitation type. On Thursday night into early Friday morning
the focus for a mixed phase of rain and freezing rain is
anticipated in central and parts of south central Kansas. It is
possible that it could be snow instead of freezing rain, but the
potential for warmer air to be in place is what is hinting the
liquid variety. Accumulations are not expected at this time. Given
the differences in the models and latter part of the forecast,
changes will occur. Stay tuned for updates. A gradual warming
trend is in store for the end of the week. Weekend temperatures
are expected to rise back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Increasing low level moisture advection will lead to low clouds
continuing to increase all the way into central KS. Low clouds have
progressed much further NW and north than previously thought. With
KICT, KHUT, KCNU all seeing IFR cigs. The low clouds will linger
tonight as low level moisture continues to funnel into the region.
This will lead to continued IFR/MVFR cigs for most locations
overnight into early Mon.

A cold front is still expected to move into central KS on Mon
morning, reaching KICT by around 18z. This will shift winds around
to the north and diminish IFR ceilings. Latest short term model
solutions now push the front to the KS/OK border by around 23-00z,
before stalling it out for the evening hours.

Increasing low level moisture ahead of the front, will also lead to
a chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms increasing near
the KCNU taf site early on Mon morning. Think initial saturation
will lead to some drizzle for KCNU, but think by sunrise some widely
scattered showers and even a few storms will be over SE KS. So will
add this mention to the KCNU taf site.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

After the extreme grassland fire danger today, Monday is the only
day with very high grassland fire danger indicated for much of the
forecast area. The main concern is going to be in the morning for
central and south central with the stronger winds. Southeast Kansas
will have very high conditions for all of Monday with sustained wind
speeds of 20 to 25 mph. There are chances of precipitation for much
of the rest of the forecast with the best chances across southeast
Kansas on Monday night into Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible
with this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  67  41  46 /  10  30  70  60
Hutchinson      50  59  33  38 /  10  20  50  30
Newton          50  61  36  39 /  20  30  70  50
ElDorado        52  66  43  49 /  20  40  80  80
Winfield-KWLD   50  71  52  56 /  20  30  70  80
Russell         32  42  20  28 /  10  10  20  10
Great Bend      39  47  22  31 /  10  10  20  10
Salina          46  47  26  33 /  20  20  50  20
McPherson       48  55  30  36 /  10  20  50  30
Coffeyville     52  71  59  64 /  60  70  80  90
Chanute         52  68  55  61 /  50  60  80  90
Iola            50  66  54  58 /  50  70  80  90
Parsons-KPPF    52  70  58  62 /  60  60  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...VJP


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