Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 181752
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1252 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

REMNANTS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT SURGED SE FROM NORTHERN KS
ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN KS ARE CROSSING THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING. A 2ND AREA OF SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING OVER SOUTHWEST KS & IS MOVING SE ~35 MPH. SE WINDS ~10 MPH
CONTINUE TO ALLOW RICH MOISTURE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

TEMPERATURES BEHIND SCHEDULE DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
/SENSIBLE HEAT REDUCED...LATENT HEAT INCREASED/. THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THIS. STRONG CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL WORK
AGAINST IT. MOST FAVORABLE AREA REMAINS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
KANSAS. WHETHER THIS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

COOK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

TODAY & TONIGHT:
MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SCOOTS SE FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SE THAT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT. WITH
HIGH OCTANE FUEL IN PLACE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THE
BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS
TONIGHT. A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.

TUE-WED:
AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES IT E/SE SURGE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TYPICAL (AND WE DO MEAN TYPICAL) LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGHS 95-100 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S. ANY
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS (AND THEY`RE MINIMAL) WOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE NE
OF KICT COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE RECURRING THEME IS HEAT AS VERY STRONG & DEEP HIGH PRESSURE COVERING
THE SE FOURTH OF THE U.S. WILL ENABLE DEEP SW WARM ADVECTION TO PERSIST
THE REST OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE
SAT NIGHT WHEN A BROAD UPPER-DECK WAVE THAT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD TAP INTO SUFFICIENT FUEL TO `SPARK` A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT AFFECTED THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS MOVED
OUT OF THE STATE. SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO
FESTER FROM ANTHONY KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO TULSA. THIS IS
SHOWN ON SATELLITE WITH ACCAS IN THAT AREA.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE CAVEAT. SOME OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS ORGANIZING ON THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVING EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS IS
PLAUSIBLE...HOWEVER THIS COMPLEX WILL BE WORKING INTO AN AREA THAT
IS RATHER STABLE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN.

IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT SHOULD BRING STORMS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM 04Z /RSL/ TO 11Z /CNU/. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
MOREOVER...INDICATED A TEMPO -SHRA TO INDICATE TIMING IN THE TAFS.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  70  97  75 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      98  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          97  69  97  75 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        97  68  98  75 /  20  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  71  98  76 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         96  71  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  68  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          98  71  98  75 /  20  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       97  70  97  75 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  70  98  76 /  40  30  20  10
CHANUTE         95  67  97  75 /  50  40  20  10
IOLA            94  69  97  75 /  40  40  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    96  69  98  75 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.