Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 251756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE PROGGED BOTH DAYS...THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INITIALLY TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...HOWEVER MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME. THEREFORE PLANNING TO LEAVE
FORECAST DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME ACCAS
OR PERHAPS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING...AND THEN WEST OF I-135 WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETS INTERACT WITH A TIGHT MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
IS PROGGED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VIA A
COMBINATION OF LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:

AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PEAK MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO PRIMARILY EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS
PROGGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO MONDAY ON
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. WEAK RETURN
FLOW WILL COMMENCE WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGHER MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  60  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          85  60  88  66 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        85  60  87  65 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  62  93  69 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      89  62  92  69 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          87  60  90  68 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       94  60  89  67 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  57  87  63 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         83  57  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            83  57  85  62 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  58  86  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.