Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201119
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
519 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PRESENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTH WITH LACK OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 40S. THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER...UPSTREAM TROUGH
DIGS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING IN THE 285-295K LAYER.
WITH FORECAST LOWS SLANTED TOWARD THE COLDER NAM-WRF WITH
PREDOMINATELY SHALLOW EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S/LOWER 30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY INTO MID-LATE
MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES DRIZZLE. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND
SURFACES...MAKING FOR POTENTIALLY SLICK CONDITIONS. LOW
STRATUS/DRIZZLE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONTAINED TO THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS FRIDAY.

THE UPSTREAM STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN REACHING THE LOWER-MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING AND TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE-TILT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO SPREAD NORTH
INTO OUR AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BECOMING LIKELY
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
DRAMATICALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST KS SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT COOLDOWN WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK MAINLY IN
THE 40S. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE BRISK WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR MUCH OF THIS 24HR PERIOD...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE ARE
EXPECTED BUT COULD DROP INTO THE LIFR RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  29  44  38 /   0  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      46  27  42  35 /   0  20  20  10
NEWTON          46  27  42  37 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        46  29  45  39 /   0  20  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  32  49  42 /   0  20  30  30
RUSSELL         46  24  42  31 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      46  25  42  32 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          45  24  41  34 /   0  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       46  26  42  35 /   0  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     50  33  51  46 /   0  30  40  40
CHANUTE         47  30  46  44 /   0  20  40  40
IOLA            45  29  45  43 /   0  20  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    49  31  49  45 /   0  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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