Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 242114
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THU...AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE PACIFIC NW.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PLAINS ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS FLOW...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TYPE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.  EVEN WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN IN
PLACE...EXPECT FLOW TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...BUT LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN IN TO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS.

COULD SEE A COUPLE OF BREEZY DAYS...AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL
COME DOWN FOR TUE EVENING...WITH BREEZY W-SW WINDS FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A DOWNSLOPE DAY WITH DRY LOW
LAYERS LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS.

AS THIS IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS TUE NIGHT..THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME
VERY PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

COULD SEE A FEW MINOR DIPS IN TEMPS BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR TEMPS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EXPECT THIS NW FLOW TO FLATTEN OUT SOME AND BECOME MORE
ZONAL FOR THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS SLOWLY
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FRI THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE OZARKS. MOST OF THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT COULD
SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY....AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW...AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AND HOW FAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS DURING THE NEXT
24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND SLIDES
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    23  52  35  52 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      23  51  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          22  50  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  51  35  50 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  53  34  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         22  51  32  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      23  51  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          23  53  34  46 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       22  51  34  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  52  35  52 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         23  50  33  49 /   0   0  10   0
IOLA            23  49  33  46 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    22  51  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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