Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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417
FXUS63 KICT 261816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
116 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHANGE IS TO LESSEN THE STRONG/VIOLENT LONG-TRACK
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

EXPECTING STORMS TO INITIATE BETWEEN 2-4PM...AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERSPREADS THE WARM
SECTOR...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERODES. ANTICIPATING SCATTERED
STORMS TO INITIATE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE DRYLINE...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. EXTREME INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
STORMS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTERS MENTIONED...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
BE ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE KANSAS PORTION OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH WILL TEND TO INHIBIT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND FAVOR
MORE MIXED MODE/LINEAR STORMS. NEARLY ALL SHORT-TERM HIRES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. ADDITIONALLY...ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ENVIRONMENTAL LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/SHEAR WILL REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE BEFORE 7PM. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT A LESSER THREAT
FOR LONG-TRACK SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE INTO THE EVENING...AND/OR SUPERCELLS MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER STRONG/VIOLENT LONG-TRACK
TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST KS...POSSIBLY AFTER DARK. OVERALL THOUGH...THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH OVER OK
AND NORTHWEST TX WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ORIENTED MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE.

FURTHERMORE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING...AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN KS.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AN OUTBREAK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ONE CHANGE FROM 24-HOURS AGO WHEN LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL DATA
IS AN INCREASE IN THE MID-LVL FLOW NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 00Z WED. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 90KT H5 FLOW
RUNNING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THE 00Z RAOBS. IN
ADDITION...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS FLOW AT H85 IS
MORE STRONGLY BACKED COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH LENDS SUPPORT TO THE OPENING SYNOPSIS.
THE NAM HAS ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SFC LOW OR THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC 00Z NOW
DEVELOPING IT SOUTH INTO THE OK PANHANDLE AREA WHILE THE GFS
OFFERED MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW. THE BOTTOM LINE IS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A DRYLINE BETWEEN HWY 281 AND HWY 14 OR ALONG
A LINE FROM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO GREAT BEND TO RUSSELL. THIS
DRYLINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AS CINH
DIMINISHES AFTER 20-21Z. I AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE CAP MAY
ERODE EARLIER BUT EITHER WAY THE MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF H5 HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHEN STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER MID- LVL
FLOW/STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
23-04Z TIMEFRAME. A CONTINUED RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL
LIKELY CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE ACTIVITY EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z OR SO.

WED-THU...AS THE PAC FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON WED...DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A
NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY TOP 80 AND TRENDED
HIGHS UP A BIT. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AS
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL. A
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT WITH A POST-FRONTAL STABLE REGIME
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ON THU AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. MAINTAINED MID-HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN CAMPED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
19-21Z THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-135
CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS FROM CENTRAL KS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-
CENTRAL KS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING...AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

ADK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RECENT GREEN-UP AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  57  76  47 /  70  80  10  10
HUTCHINSON      81  54  74  45 /  60  70  10  10
NEWTON          80  57  75  46 /  70  80  10  10
ELDORADO        80  58  77  47 /  70  80  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  58  77  48 /  70  80  10   0
RUSSELL         81  49  68  42 /  30  50  20  10
GREAT BEND      83  49  70  42 /  30  40  20  10
SALINA          82  55  73  46 /  70  70  20  10
MCPHERSON       80  54  74  44 /  60  70  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     82  63  78  51 /  60  90  10  10
CHANUTE         79  62  77  50 /  60  90  20  10
IOLA            78  62  77  50 /  60  90  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    80  62  78  51 /  60  90  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADK
SYNOPSIS...MWM
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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