Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS63 KICT 150813
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Southerly winds will pick up today ahead of a weak cold front.
Moisture transport will also pick up some but it will not be
strong enough to allow dew point temperatures to go higher than
65 across the region. This will be high enough to support some
shower and thunderstorm activity. Forcing will improve today and
tomorrow as the front approaches and will provide the area for
some chances for some much needed rain. Unfortunately, the lack of
focused moisture transport today means rainfall amounts are not
expected to be significant. Temperatures ahead of this front will
remain warm for today and Saturday. While the temperatures will
be well above normal for this time of year, record highs are not
expected.

Saturday afternoon and evening, the front will encroach on the
CWA. Moisture transport is better but still not focused enough to
allow for a wide spread heavy rain event. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the CWA during Saturday
afternoon and into Sunday. CAPE and shear are high enough for
strong thunderstorms or an isolated severe storm will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening. Once the front pass Saturday
night and Sunday morning, temperatures will return to more normal
levels.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Long term is difficult as the GFS, GEFS plumes and the ECMWF are
in significant disagreement. The GFS family of models is rather
active and wet while the ECMWF is much drier. Both model families
are completely dependent on the track of Tropical Storm Norma in
the Eastern Pacific. Should the GFS family of models be correct,
which follows the Hurricane Center`s forecast track for Norma, the
region could be in for a much needed series of showers and
thunderstorms through much of next week and temperatures near or
just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Main aviation concern will be some wind shear overnight.

Lee troughing remains in place with storms over nw KS continuing
to lift off to the northeast. By the time you get to 2,000ft,
winds will be in the 35 to 40kt range out of the sw tonight. These
winds should start to mix down by around sunrise. Southeast winds
will again be gusty by Fri afternoon with gusts over 30mph
expected for areas along and west of I-135. Confidence is high
that VFR conditions will remain in place through this TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  71  92  65 /  10  20  20  30
Hutchinson      95  71  92  62 /  20  10  20  30
Newton          93  70  90  63 /  10  20  20  40
ElDorado        92  70  90  65 /  10  20  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   92  71  90  67 /  10  20  10  40
Russell         96  70  89  57 /  20  10  20  30
Great Bend      96  69  90  59 /  20  10  20  30
Salina          96  72  92  61 /  10  20  20  40
McPherson       95  70  92  61 /  10  10  20  40
Coffeyville     90  70  90  68 /   0  10  10  30
Chanute         90  69  88  67 /   0  10  10  30
Iola            89  68  88  66 /   0  10  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    90  70  89  68 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.