Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 181725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING AT 500 MB MOVING INTO
THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY...CAUSING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF IS MORE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE FLOW MAKES A NORTHERLY TURN TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE ...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. IN FACT...THE 18.00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
REALLY THE ONLY NWP MODEL THAT SHOWS PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCES ARE WARRANTED BUT NO MORE.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM MONDAY. THE MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN FROM THIS PREVIOUS
FRONT WILL NOT REALLY BE SCOURED OUT. THUS...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
LOOKS MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY PROBLEM THERE IS
THAT FRONT IS RATHER FRONTOLITIC AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
IN. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING THE FURTHER ONE MOVES EAST ACROSS KANSAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN INFLUENCES THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN MORNING IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  44  73  54 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          63  44  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        65  43  72  54 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  45  73  55 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELL         62  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      63  45  74  49 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          63  44  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  43  70  54 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         64  42  69  53 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            63  42  69  52 /   0   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    64  42  70  53 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.