Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 261118
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
618 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: REMNANT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER
CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD
TOPS COOLING RAPIDLY. 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOW FOCUSING
FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST NEB....SO THINK THIS WILL BE
THE DOMINANT PRECIP AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE CENTRAL
KS PRECIP AREA ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS END...EXPECT ONE MORE HOT DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AGAIN ALMOST 5 TO 8 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
EXPECTING TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE CENTURY MARK THIS AFTERNOON...AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARENT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS WELL TODAY...AS
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND IN THE LOW LAYERS. BUT
STILL WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. COULD STILL HEAT
INDEX VALUES JUST AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS DAYS...GIVEN THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED.

PICKING OUT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
BUBBLE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WASHING OUT
OVER SE KS.  BUT AS THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEARS
ON...THINK MAIN CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NW OF CENTRAL KS...OVER NW KS OR NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER NEAR
KHLC...AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLS IN THIS AREA AND CONVECTIVE TEMP
IS REACHED. SOME OF THIS EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KS. CENTRAL KS PICKED UP SOME SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
TONIGHT...SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOP.

WED-THU: EXPECTING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT HAVE
BEEN LOCATED ALONG THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN WRN KS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS
THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SE
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INTO THE PLAINS. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING BOTH WED AND THU. THINK THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BOTH DAYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE MAKES SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
AND THU AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES EACH NIGHT.

WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING...AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEK...POSSIBLY INTO SAT.  THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PULL ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT....WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES SHIFTING TO ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE AND OVER THE ERN
HALF OF KS BY SAT.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRI
THROUGH SAT...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY COOL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY FALLING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

THE AREA WILL DRY OUT FOR SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FINALLY PULLS
TO THE EAST OF AREA. BUT THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MODERATING TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  73  95  72 /  10  10  10  30
HUTCHINSON      98  72  94  71 /  20  20  10  30
NEWTON          98  73  94  71 /  20  20  10  30
ELDORADO        99  73  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  73  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         95  69  91  68 /  30  50  40  50
GREAT BEND      97  70  92  68 /  20  30  30  50
SALINA          98  72  93  72 /  20  30  30  40
MCPHERSON       97  71  94  70 /  20  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE    100  73  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         98  72  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            98  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    99  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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