Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 131940
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
240 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy approaching the
northern Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a much weaker southern
stream impulse is approaching NM. At the surface, very moist
airmass remains over the central and southern Plains with a cold
front stretching across nw Nebraska.

Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon over the high
Plains of eastern CO and track southeast this evening. With lack
of focus tonight and high Plains activity staying west, will leave
storms out for tonight. Showers and storms should increase over OK
Mon, as the impulse currently approaching NM, moves out into the
southern Plains. At this time, it appears far southern KS will
have the best chance to see some light showers or a couple storms
tomorrow. Mid-upper flow will start to turn more southwesterly Mon
night into Tue which will ramp up 850-700mb moisture transport
across the forecast area. This will lead to increased precip
chances late Mon night into Tue morning. Even though lower
atmosphere will remain very moist Tue, not overly impressed with
precip chances as the better forcing lifts off to the northeast.

Tue night into Wed there is decent model agreement that a fairly
robust shortwave will move out across the central Plains. This
will allow a cold front to push through Wed into Wed evening with
this front likely having showers and storms tied to it.

A small warm-up can be expected for Tue and Wed but afternoon
highs still look to remain below seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Pattern looks to remain active through most of these extended
periods as broad upper trough remains from the Rockies into the
mid/northern Mississippi Valley. There seems to be some agreement
between the ECMWF and GFS in bringing an upper perturbation out
of the nw flow Thu night into Fri morning which would lead to some
elevated precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The north/south ,moisture plume along highway 14 in the western
part of the forecast area has kept KGBD, KRSL, and KHUT in the
lower cu field all morning. This has since spread into KICT and
another section of low level moisture is advecting north into
KCNU. This should be a sct/bkn deck for all taf sites this
afternoon. I expect the cu field to dissipate with sunset. Models
hint at low clouds again towards sunrise. I have hinted towards
this approch with mvfr cigs at most locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  68  86  70 /  10  10  10  30
Hutchinson      84  68  87  69 /  10  10  10  30
Newton          83  66  86  69 /  10  10  10  30
ElDorado        82  66  84  69 /  10  10  10  40
Winfield-KWLD   83  67  86  71 /  10  10  20  40
Russell         84  66  88  68 /  10  10  10  30
Great Bend      83  66  87  69 /  10  10  10  30
Salina          86  65  86  70 /  10  10  10  30
McPherson       84  66  86  69 /  10  10  10  30
Coffeyville     80  65  86  70 /  10  10  20  50
Chanute         80  63  84  69 /  10  10  10  40
Iola            80  63  84  69 /  10  10  10  40
Parsons-KPPF    80  64  85  70 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CWH



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