Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260730
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PLAINS...WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL FILL IN
ON THE REAR SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES MAY OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING CONSEQUENTIAL WITH LOWER LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BEING RATHER DRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE MORE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY...MAKING
FOR A NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEAMPLIFIED AND QUASI-ZONAL OFF OF
THE PACIFIC DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...IS THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE DAMPENED WITH THIS FEATURE. SO
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS FAR NORTH WITH THAT WAVE. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY A WIND SHIFT.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE-
850 RIDGING OVER THE GULF FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST KS
TODAY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD RESULT IN HIGH FIRE
DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  34  58  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          56  32  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  33  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  34  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         60  31  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  31  62  38 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  33  58  36 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  33  58  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  35  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         55  33  53  37 /  10  30  10  10
IOLA            54  33  52  36 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  34  54  37 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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