Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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532
FXUS63 KICT 210448
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1148 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper circulation lifting into southern
OK with much more robust upper energy moving out of the Northern
Intermountain and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, lee
troughing continues to deepen over eastern CO producing strong
pressure gradient across the Plains.

Gusty south winds will remain in place tonight, especially for
areas along and west of I-135. Sustained speeds around 30 mph will
be common in these locations. Most of forecast area will remain in
moist 850-700mb flow overnight in an uncapped airmass above
850mb. In addition, upper impulse to our south still has to push
through. With this, can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm
tonight into Sat morning, but confidence is high that we are not
looking at widespread convection. Attention will then turn cold
front to push through Sat afternoon/evening.

Timing of cold front and associated storms have slowly slightly
form the 12z runs yesterday and midnight shift did a good job
adjusting the timing. By 21z Sat, cold front is expected to
stretch from southeast of Salina to just southeast of Hutchinson
with storms likely developing or have already started to develop
along it. So for timing, we are looking at areas near KHUT being
affected between the 1 pm to 4 pm frame and KICT in the 4 pm to 7
pm range. Strong to severe storms still look likely given amount
of instability(~2,000J/KG) and deep layer shear in the 40-45kt
range. Still looking like damaging winds and quarter to half
dollar size hail. May see the line of storms start to slow down as
they get into se KS which may promote some minor flooding as the
evening continues. The better chances for supercells look to be
further south into OK where storm interactions will initially be
minimized more than up here.

By 12z Sun, storms will be exiting southeast KS leaving a much
drier and cooler airmass in place. However, the airmass behind the
front does`t look that anomalous with highs on Sun still near 70
degrees. There is good model agreement in another shortwave
swinging across the northern Plains Mon into Mon night with this
feature not expected to bring precip to the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Main story through this extended period will be a couple different
cold fronts to swing through the area. First front is expected to
move through Mon afternoon into Mon night and is expected to come
through dry. This will knock down highs Tue into the 60s which is
closer to seasonal normals for this time of year. However, we will
quickly get back into downslope and above normal temps for Wed
with highs in the 70s. There is some model agreement that a much
more significant front will move through Thu into Thu evening and
will have a chance to bring our first widespread freeze.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong and gusty southerly winds will continue in the morning
hours on Saturday, especially for RSL and GBD, as a deep low
pressure system approaches from the west. Increasing sky cover
with MVFR ceilings will linger through the morning. By early
afternoon, a cold front will make its way into the CWA. For RSL
and GBD, the main concerns will be a shift in wind direction,
transitioning from southerly flow to northwesterly flow around
17Z. In addition to shifting winds at other area airports, a main
concern will be chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
developing along the front. Thunderstorm activity is expected to
begin by mid-afternoon for HUT, SLN, and ICT, then diminishing by
00Z. Impacts of thunderstorms are expected at CNU a little later,
beginning around 23Z until the end of this TAF period. Main
concerns with these storms will be strong wind gusts, heavy rain,
and quarter to half dollar size hail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  75  46  70 /  20  70  50   0
Hutchinson      66  74  43  70 /  20  60  20   0
Newton          66  73  44  69 /  20  70  40   0
ElDorado        66  74  46  69 /  20  70  70   0
Winfield-KWLD   66  76  47  69 /  20  70  80   0
Russell         64  70  39  71 /  10  20   0   0
Great Bend      64  72  39  72 /  10  20  10   0
Salina          66  74  43  70 /  20  70  20   0
McPherson       66  73  43  69 /  20  70  20   0
Coffeyville     66  79  52  68 /  20  40 100  10
Chanute         65  77  50  67 /  20  60  90  10
Iola            65  77  50  67 /  20  60  90  10
Parsons-KPPF    66  78  52  68 /  20  40 100  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...TAV



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