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000
FXUS63 KICT 131113
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO THE HEAT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AND THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ON EACH SIDE OF IT.  TO
THE EAST A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PLOWING THROUGH OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA.  TO THE WEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO HOME THE COOL FRONT HAS STALLED OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.  TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 60S WHILE SOUTH...NEARER THE FRONT TEMPS ARE
STAYING IN THE 70S.

BILLINGS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THINGS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.  LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THEN
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SURGE BACK TO
THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY.  BY FRIDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE STRONG DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE
MIXING AND HEAT UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG WITH THE SURGE OF 70+
DEWPOINTS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100 AND 104 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

BILLINGS

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SATURDAY - MONDAY:
EARLY SATURDAY A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
HELP TO CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND.  WHILE CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE
WEEKEND...IT WILL NOT RAIN THE WHOLE TIME.  THE BEST CHANCES
CONTINUE TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS A COMPLEX MOVES
ACROSS KANSAS.  ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS A COMPLEX MOVES FROM NEBRASKA AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
WITH A FRONT MOVING ACROSS KANSAS.  BY THIS TIME THE RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST PUTTING KANSAS ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF
THE UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

BILLINGS

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY:
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE BACK ON TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WHILE THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THINK TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA...CHANCES WILL BE BETTER OVER OKLAHOMA.  BY
WEDNESDAY...THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
BE STRONG.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE WITH THE LATER PERIODS IS LOW.

BILLINGS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS
TODAY WHICH HELP RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR KRSL...KSLN AND KHUT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH.
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS SHOULD PERSIST. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD MAINLY IMPACT KRSL AND
KSLN...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY DEVELOPMENT
FOR THESE AREAS. THUS NO MENTION HAS BEEN MADE IN THIS FORECAST.
THERE ARE LITTLE TO NO CONCERNS FOR THESE TAFS.

VP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    90  70  99  75 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      89  70 100  74 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          88  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        86  68  95  73 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  70  97  75 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         88  70 102  72 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      89  70 100  72 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          87  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       89  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  69  92  75 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         86  67  92  74 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            85  66  91  73 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  92  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$