Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 162108
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Cold front has now pushed off shore over southeast TX with a very
cold airmass situated over the Plains. In the upper levels, a
positive tilted trough extends from the eastern Great Lakes into
the Ozark region.

Upper trough is expected to continue tracking east and will move
across the Eastern Seaboard on Wed. This will allow the surface
high to shift southeast and will be centered over the southern
Mississippi Valley for tomorrow. Lows tonight will likely be
colder than temps early this morning, but winds will be much
lighter resulting in warmer wind chills.

Weak upper ridging is forecast to track over the Rockies and into
the northern Plains by Thu. Our next shortwave to affect the
Plains is expected to track over southern CA Sat. This scenario
will get the central and southern Plains back into return flow
which will start a decent warmup. 50s are expected for the entire
area for highs on both Fri and Sat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

12z runs of both the ECMWF and GFS agree fairly well on the track
of our next weather system. They both track it across the desert
southwest Sat, into the high Plains Sat night and across central
KS on Sun. The track of this system looks fairly similar to our
last shortwave, with the best snow chances from west-central KS
into Nebraska. This feature will likely become the focus of later
forecast shifts. One difference compared to our last shortwave, is
a lack of Arctic air filling-in behind the wave as it departs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

VFR conditions at much lighter winds are expected to dominate the
region this afternoon and overnight. Winds will become light and
variable overnight under clear skies. Mid levels over the western
terminals are expected to tighten up overnight as well. This will
bring the potential for some low level wind shear over GBD, RSL
and SLN. These wind shear conditions are expected to abate a few
hours after sunrise Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT     1  32  16  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson       1  34  16  49 /   0   0   0   0
Newton           1  32  16  47 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado         1  31  17  46 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD    1  32  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
Russell          1  37  16  54 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend       2  38  17  55 /   0   0   0   0
Salina           0  31  16  49 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson        1  33  15  48 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville      1  29  16  45 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute          0  26  15  43 /   0   0   0   0
Iola             0  26  15  43 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF     0  28  16  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ELM



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