Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 182014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY...THE FIRST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SECOND OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL AGAIN TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH 80S
TOMORROW...LOW 90S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S ON MONDAY. WITH
THE MOIST LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 100-105 IN
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE BY MONDAY.

A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SPARK
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CREEP INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF IT WILL ACTUALLY REACH CENTRAL KANSAS SO
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE JULY...IN THE 90S. A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

BY FRIDAY THE GUIDANCE IS PULLING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE...AND
AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX AND DRY OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL BROACH 100
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...NEAR
100 TO 104.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

BKN012 CIGS CONTINUE ALONG CENTRAL KANSAS IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FEET HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ALL MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS THE AIRMASS THAT
HAS AFFECTED THE REGION BEGINS TO SLOWLY EXIT.

TONIGHT...STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE CLEARS OUT CLOUDS. THAT
SAID...NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
SATURATION OCCURRING. AT THIS POINT...SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS OF 1200 FEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KHUT...KICT...AND KCNU.
SATELLITE RIGHT NOW SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH SLOWER
TO LEAVE THE REGION THAN IS BEING FORECAST BY GUIDANCE...LEADING
TO THE CONFIDENCE IN TONIGHTS CLOUD FORECAST.

SATURDAY...WIND INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. CONDITIONS
VFR.

COOK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  85  68  90 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      60  87  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          59  85  67  90 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        59  84  66  89 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  84  67  89 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  88  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  88  69  93 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          61  89  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       60  87  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  85  65  89 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  85  65  88 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            59  84  64  88 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  85  65  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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