Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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837
FXUS63 KICT 180815
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Pesky upper impulse, that has been affecting western KS the last
few days, is now tracking across south central Nebraska. A few
showers and storms have made them down to around I-70 with this
activity expected to continue affecting parts of central KS this
morning. By around 15z showers and storms should be northeast of
the forecast area.

Attention will then turn to the heat. Will keep headlines
generally the same for now. Not out of the question headlines
maybe expanded with future forecasts but as it stands now,
confidence isn`t high enough to expand with this package. This is
mainly due to low confidence on how much dewpoints will mix-out
each afternoon. Hoping that how dewpoints behave today will give
us clues on how to proceeded with headlines for Wed-Fri.
Regardless of headlines, heat indices will be in the 100 to 106
degree range for areas along and west of I-135 today and area wide
for Wed-Fri

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Dangerous heat looks to remain in place through Sat with 100 to
105 degree heat indices likely.

Still good model agreement that shortwave energy will track across
southern Canada Fri night and into the Great Lakes region by Sun.
This will allow a slow moving weak surface trough to move into the
region for the weekend. At the same time, stronger mid/upper flow
will allow some moonsonal moisture and energy to spill into the
high Plains for the weekend. The GFS remains more agressive with
a more robust impulse moving into central KS Sun and Sun night.
While this initially looked suspicious, the 00z ECMWF is starting
to trend closer to the GFS solution. However, the exact timing
and track of these small vort maxes that far out are tough to pin
down. So confidence in precip chances and location are low at
this time. So will not run with anything more than chance pops for
now.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Based on radar trends and ARW which has had a decent handle on
mainly cold pool driven storms this evening, will continue to
leave VCTS/thunderstorms out of the forecast. Still outside
chance that the storms may drift into KRSL/KSLN, but chances are
higher to the north, closer to the better forcing aloft. Winds at
those locations will likely be briefly affected by outflow from
storms to the north. Otherwise, diurnally gusty winds more
afternoon cumulus are anticipated. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    97  74  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      98  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          96  75  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        95  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   96  74  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Russell        101  74 102  75 /  10  20   0   0
Great Bend     101  73 101  75 /   0  10   0   0
Salina         101  76 102  78 /  20  10   0   0
McPherson       96  74 100  76 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     96  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         94  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            94  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    95  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047-048.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Friday for
KSZ049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH



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