Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 251236
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
736 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE HEAT WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MIXING OUT A BIT MORE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS VALUES...HOWEVER STILL SHOULD WITNESS DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MEANWHILE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-70. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS EVENING...AND GIVEN LITTLE STRONGER
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT AND HIGH INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM THE HEAT
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ALOFT ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A
CONTINUATION OF HEAT HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY THIS PERIOD. IN
ADDITION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY MIGRATING NORTH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY FOR KANSAS...HOWEVER
A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A DECENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

STORM CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS FORECAST. APPEARS THAT
STORMS WILL ROLL INTO KRSL THIS MORNING...BUT IS LESS CERTAIN AT
KSLN. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLED WITH THIS...WITH WRFNMM THE BEST
OF MANY POOR SOLUTIONS. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CURRENT
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SUGGEST STORMS COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS FURTHER EAST...MOVING INTO
LOWER INSTABILITY/LESS MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE RENEWED SOMETIME TONIGHT AT KRSL/KSLN EITHER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OR IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY.
EITHER WAY TIMING REMAINS A CHALLENGE...SO WILL OMIT FOR NOW.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  76 100  77 /  10  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  76 101  77 /  10  40  10  10
NEWTON          99  75  99  76 /  10  30  20  10
ELDORADO        99  76  99  77 /  10  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  75  98  76 /  10  20  10   0
RUSSELL        101  73 101  74 /  40  50  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  73 101  74 /  30  40  10  20
SALINA         103  75 103  77 /  30  40  20  20
MCPHERSON      101  75 101  75 /  10  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  76  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         97  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            98  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    98  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ049-051>053-068>070-083-091>094-098.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ071-072-095-096-099-100.

&&

$$


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