Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 181151
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING AT 500 MB MOVING INTO
THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY...CAUSING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF IS MORE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE FLOW MAKES A NORTHERLY TURN TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE ...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. IN FACT...THE 18.00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
REALLY THE ONLY NWP MODEL THAT SHOWS PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCES ARE WARRANTED BUT NO MORE.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM MONDAY. THE MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN FROM THIS PREVIOUS
FRONT WILL NOT REALLY BE SCOURED OUT. THUS...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
LOOKS MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY PROBLEM THERE IS
THAT FRONT IS RATHER FRONTOLITIC AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SIGNAL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
IN. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING THE FURTHER ONE MOVES EAST ACROSS KANSAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN INFLUENCES THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CURRENTLY HAVE ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HAS REINFORCED THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS GRIP FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  45  73  54 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      64  45  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          63  45  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        65  44  72  54 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELL         62  46  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      63  46  74  49 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          63  45  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       63  45  72  52 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  44  70  54 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         64  43  69  53 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            63  43  69  52 /   0   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  70  53 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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