Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 250450
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF
CURRENT NORTHERN KS AND NE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FOCUSING ALONG/NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KS. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS IN
CONCERT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL MID-UPPER FORCING SHOULD KEEP
BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY EVENING RAOBS WILL
SUPPORT A HANDFUL OF MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

FURTHER SOUTH...GIVEN LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND THE ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM-GENERATED
COLD POOLS WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY...CANNOT RULE OUT WEAKENED
ACTIVITY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH/EAST AS ROUGHLY HUTCHINSON-NEWTON-
HILLSBORO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN FIRMLY PLANTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WHILE THE H7 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. A CAPPING INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD SAT MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KS.

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AND ALONG A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO RESIDE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE HIGHWAY 36
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE ABOVE 105
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
WESTWARD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR ALL OF SE KS. THE NAM/GFS ARE BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING...DRIVING AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS
SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO TOP OUT AROUND 100 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUN-MON...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUN-MON AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON SUN BUT THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A VIGOROUS
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING RSL OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SLN-
HUT AS WELL...AS WESTERN KS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. INCLUDED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM 08-12Z AT
RSL. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TS IF WESTERN
KS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER. COULD SEE A TIME OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT
RSL-SLN-HUT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
SPREADS SOUTHEAST...BUT THINKING FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS AS
THE FRONT WASHES BACK NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS. INCLUDED VCTS AT SLN-RSL FOR NOW.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 100  76  99 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  99  76  99 /  20  20  30  20
NEWTON          75  98  75  98 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        78  98  76  97 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  99  75  99 /   0  10  20  10
RUSSELL         73  98  74 101 /  30  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      73  98  73 100 /  30  30  40  20
SALINA          77  98  76  99 /  20  30  30  30
MCPHERSON       75  98  75  99 /  20  20  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  99  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            77  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  99  76  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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