Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 140903
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave now on shore over the Pacific
Northwest. At the surface, lee troughing continues to increase
across eastern CO/western KS allowing strong moisture advection to
remain over the central Plains.

Strong low level moisture transport is expected to remain over the
area for most of the day with isentropic upglide right off of the
surface remaining strong. This will result in areas of drizzle
remaining for most of the forecast area. By 00z Wed, upper impulse
will be tracking over the northern Plains with 850-700mb moisture
transport increasing across southeast KS. Should see a transition
from drizzle to rain tonight over mainly southeast KS. Confidence
in a storm or two has decreased compared to yesterday`s model
runs, as the 00z runs have less instability over se KS.

Cold front will be south of the forecast area by 15z Wed, but
airmass behind the front still doesn`t look that cold, with near
normal highs anticipated. By 12z Thu, shortwave energy is again
expected to be coming on shore over the Pacific Northwest. This
will again result in lee troughing strengthening and the central
Plains quickly getting back into a low level moisture advection
pattern like we have already seen several times this month. So,
currently expecting at least eastern KS to get back into a period
of drizzle, starting Thu afternoon and continuing through Thu
night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Both ECMWF and GFS are still trying to swing a more robust
shortwave across the Plains Fri night through Sat. The GFS
remains faster with this feature compared to the ECMWF and thus
also pushes the cold front through faster. The GFS brings the
front through during the day Fri while the ECMWF waits until Fri
night. While we are not looking at a significant rain or snow
event, not out of the question to see a mix of rain or snow behind
the front. The passing of this wave is expected to commence a
pattern change with more pronounced upper riding setting up over
the Rockies and sharp troughing over the northeast CONUS. This
will bring a drying out period across the Plains with near or
slightly below normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate as we move
through the overnight hours with widespread drizzle and fog. IFR
and MVFR across the area this evening will fall with some VLIFR
and LIFR developing across much of the area as warm and moist air
is drawn north across the region. Some areas of dense fog may
develop across central and portions of south central KS during the
predawn hours. Low level moisture will continue to lift north
across the area on Tuesday with reduced flight categories likely
lingering through much of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  48  60  37 /  20  30  10   0
Hutchinson      60  45  59  35 /  10  20   0   0
Newton          60  46  58  36 /  20  40   0   0
ElDorado        59  48  59  37 /  20  60  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   61  52  60  39 /  20  50  10   0
Russell         56  39  58  33 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      57  41  58  34 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          60  43  59  34 /  10  20   0   0
McPherson       60  44  58  34 /  10  30   0   0
Coffeyville     58  53  62  39 /  40  70  40   0
Chanute         57  51  60  37 /  40  80  20   0
Iola            56  50  59  36 /  40  80  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    57  52  61  38 /  40  70  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...the 00z runs have less
instability over se KS.Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this
morning for KSZ032-033- 047-048.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM



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