Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 162051
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Active weather pattern continues this week, with periodic
shower/thunderstorm chances, especially this afternoon-tonight,
Wednesday afternoon-evening, and lastly Friday-Saturday.

Late this afternoon-tonight...Airmass continues to
recover/destabilize across southern Kansas and points south, in
wake of early day convection. Latest objective analysis and short-
term hi-res guidance suggests the greatest potential for
thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight will likely be over
far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, in the vicinity of a
stalled frontal zone. Activity will likely be aided by subtle/weak
upper waves approaching from the west and southwest. Strong
instability along/south of the frontal zone along with ample deep
layer shear should promote scattered strong/severe storms
along/south of Kingman-Wichita-Chanute, capable of large hail and
damaging winds. While current low-level flow remains weak, if a
supercell manages to anchor along the warm front, cannot
completely rule out a brief tornado closer to the Oklahoma border
this evening as low-level jet increases. Further north across
central and east-central Kansas, marginal instability and ample
deep layer shear amidst isentropic ascent north of the frontal
zone may support a few marginally severe hailers. Expecting all
activity to gradually exit east later tonight as an upper wave
approaches from the west.

Monday night-early Tuesday...Could see a stray thunderstorm or
two meander from the High Plains into central/north-central
Kansas, within increasing warm advection and moisture transport
ahead of a weakening cold front. Suspect this activity will remain
fairly isolated though given large-scale forcing remaining well
north of the region.

Tuesday late afternoon-night...Expecting storm chances to ramp up
generally north of I-70, especially during the evening/overnight,
as isentropic ascent greatly increases north of a stalled east-
west oriented frontal zone. Ample instability and effective deep
layer shear should support large hail and perhaps damaging winds
with this activity. Thinking vast majority of this threat will
remain north of the forecast area though.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Wednesday afternoon-night...Thinking this period will be the
forecast area`s next appreciable chance for severe storms, as an
energetic shortwave and associated dryline/cold front approach the
Central Plains from the west. Strong heating, 60s dewpoints and
steep mid-level lapse rates should support strong instability
within the warm sector. What gets our attention are strengthening
wind fields aloft, which will support strong deep layer shear.
There remains some questions on storm coverage, as greatest large
scale ascent may remain north of the region, but overall consensus
continues to support at least an isolated severe risk (possibly
higher end severe weather?) Wednesday afternoon and night, with
all hazards possible.

Friday-Saturday...Attention then turns to a powerful storm system
expected to approach the Central/Southern Plains late week into the
weekend. Despite fairly substantial spread amongst individual GFS
ensemble members, overall medium range consensus continues to
support the synoptic pattern surrounding this storm system. That
said, thinking greatest severe weather potential will remain south
of the Kansas region closer to the warm sector, with a greater
potential for widespread rain/embedded storms across Kansas, along
with much cooler temperatures (highs possibly in the 50s and windy
Fri-Sat). However, still quite a bit of uncertainty this far out, so
will continue to monitor model trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Main hazards: thunderstorms and stratus potential.

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across central/south-central Kansas, before shifting into
primarily south-central/southeast Kansas tonight. Will include
tempo TSRA groups at RSL, GBD, SLN, HUT, and ICT through early
this evening, given higher confidence in occurrence and timing in
those areas. Will include a VCTS at CNU for tonight for now with a
lesser chance of storm initiation there this afternoon. Areas of
MVFR stratus will persist over southern Kansas this afternoon,
becoming more widespread and lowering to IFR tonight into Monday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    56  73  59  81 /  60  20  10  10
Hutchinson      53  72  58  80 /  60  10  10  10
Newton          54  71  58  79 /  60  10  10  10
ElDorado        56  72  59  80 /  60  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   58  74  59  81 /  70  30  10  10
Russell         50  72  57  81 /  30  10  20  10
Great Bend      50  72  57  82 /  40  10  20  10
Salina          52  72  59  80 /  40  10  10  20
McPherson       52  72  58  80 /  60  10  10  10
Coffeyville     59  74  60  81 /  70  40  10  10
Chanute         57  73  58  80 /  70  30  10  10
Iola            56  72  58  79 /  70  30  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    58  73  59  80 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC



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